Head To Head Jenson Button vs Lewis Hamilton
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Wombcat
Podium Finisher
It's not high risk as long as you don't lose a position. Vettel was no threat and was covered anyway.
Even in your worst case situation he doesn't lose a position. In my previous post I already explained that the chance of Hamilton gaining a position due to an earlier pitstop are virtually none-existent.
Just as Vettel was covered anyway by Hamilton, Alonso had Hamilton covered anyway.
For Sauber it was really easy to cover Hamilton. Do you think that Sauber would have waited another lap if Hamilton would have come in for slicks? I'm pretty sure they would have covered his pitstop by coming in the next lap. If they wouldn't they'd risk losing a position. They would know that and anticipate on it.
So if Hamilton would have come in the lap before Alonso, Alonso would still keep the lead. Chances are that Perez would have followed Alonso in the pits, and he'd have a real shot at winning the race. Hamilton still 3rd, only a bit closer to Perez.
Would Hamilton have pitted in the same lap as Alonso, then Perez would still have followed in the next lap, and positions would have been the same. Only the difference between Perez and Hamilton smaller.
Since Perez was the fastest on track, in both of the above scenarios Hamilton wouldn't have caught him. So he still would have finished 3rd.
What really influenced the outcome of the race is the first pitstop of Hamilton, where McLaren screwed up. If they hadn't done that, Hamilton would have been in the lead. That would have been a different race, because Alonso and Perez would need to pass him to win.
tranquility2k9
Podium Finisher
I tell you - all this talk about strange decisions by McLaren. It made me think back to Hungary 2011. Hamilton had a comfortable lead of near 10 seconds before the first pit stops, where drivers switched to slicks. Webber was first to pit and started setting purple sector times immediately. Jenson pitted the next lap and then Lewis didn't pit until 1 or 2 laps after that. So Jenson got to pit before Lewis even though he was in 2nd and that helped him close the gap a lot. Then when it came to the next pit stops there was a VERY strange decision. Webber, Vettel and then Jenson all put on the Soft tyres, which would get them to the end of the race and then for a reason that I have still not had explained, Hamilton got given super-soft tyres, which clearly would not get him to the end of the race.
This meant he would have to pit again, which either way would probably lose him the race to Jenson because it was impossible for him to make up a whole pit stop on a set of super-softs, which were degrading much more quickly than the softs but ultimately weren't much quicker. Once he found this out (which you heard over the radio), he was clearly angry that he had to pit again and this could have been a factor that caused him to lose his concentrate and spin at the chicane. Of course that is just a factor and it may have been nothing to do with it, but I think the next thing that happened was definitely as a consequence of him being on super-softs.
If you remmeber Lewis came in for intermediates, only to have to go back in for slicks 2 laps later and so ended up pitting two times more than Jenson. Now I can't remember who's decision it was for him to pit, whether it was his own or the teams, but I think a fundamental factor in him pitting was that he would have had to of pitted again for slicks either way, as his super-softs would not have lasted until the end of the race. So he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't, or should I say if he pitted for intermediates and the "gamble" paid off, then it would have been better than staying out on super-softs where his fate had already been decided. By putting on super-softs he had already lost the race to Jenson.
All in all it was another shambolic display by the McLaren tacticians and even though Lewis was leading during all of those pit calls he seemed to get put on the more risky strategy or pit later at every occasion.
This meant he would have to pit again, which either way would probably lose him the race to Jenson because it was impossible for him to make up a whole pit stop on a set of super-softs, which were degrading much more quickly than the softs but ultimately weren't much quicker. Once he found this out (which you heard over the radio), he was clearly angry that he had to pit again and this could have been a factor that caused him to lose his concentrate and spin at the chicane. Of course that is just a factor and it may have been nothing to do with it, but I think the next thing that happened was definitely as a consequence of him being on super-softs.
If you remmeber Lewis came in for intermediates, only to have to go back in for slicks 2 laps later and so ended up pitting two times more than Jenson. Now I can't remember who's decision it was for him to pit, whether it was his own or the teams, but I think a fundamental factor in him pitting was that he would have had to of pitted again for slicks either way, as his super-softs would not have lasted until the end of the race. So he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't, or should I say if he pitted for intermediates and the "gamble" paid off, then it would have been better than staying out on super-softs where his fate had already been decided. By putting on super-softs he had already lost the race to Jenson.
All in all it was another shambolic display by the McLaren tacticians and even though Lewis was leading during all of those pit calls he seemed to get put on the more risky strategy or pit later at every occasion.
Wombcat
Podium Finisher
Webber was the first one to pit that race and was put on the soft. Alonso also had pitted early (I'm not sure if he pitted before or after Webber, I think Alonso pitted first) and he was faster then Webber at that time. Then Hamilton came in and also was put on super-soft. Shortly after that Vettel overtook Alonso and it turned out supersofts weren't the right choice. And only then Button came in.
At the time Webber was put on the soft everyone thought that was a strange decision. A few laps later it turned out it was the right one. Unfortunately Hamilton had already pitted then.
Lewywo4
Race Winner
Especially after Jenson's team radio on lap 39 said, " OK Jenson some cars switched to slick tires, and they are quicker, we think it's ready for slicks. " and then Jenson entered the pits. Lewis's team radio on lap 41 said, " Alonso has pitted for dries as the other cars behind, and box this lap okay. " .....They seem to be a little slow on the mark, at Lewis's end.
tranquility2k9
Podium Finisher
To exaggerate the scenario, say you had a 20 second advantage to 2nd and were leading the race then you would say that if that driver lost say 15 seconds in pit stop, putting 2nd place only 5 seconds behind on different tyres where pace could be completely different, then that would not be a high risk strategy because a position was not lost? Losing large amounts of time can sometimes be more damaging then losing position. I'm not suggesting in this scenario that was even the case but I don't think you can make it as clear cut as you have.
Also to say Vettel was not a threat? If Vettel hadn't of got that puncture then he'd of been on Hamilton's tail for the last 10 laps. He was only 2.9 seconds behind at that time and both Red Bull's were faster and Vettel had the prime tyre on which was working very well for Perez. I think he most certainly was a threat and if Lewis would have lost that position then it would have highlighted even more what a shambolic decision that was to pit him so late for slicks.
The fact of the matter is that McLaren should have been aiming to win the race and they weren't going to do that by following Alonso and Perez in. If they saw drivers going purple on slicks then they should have been straight in and by gaining that 5 second advantage themselves by pitting when say Mr. Button got told to come in, they'd have had a gap to the leaders which could have realistically been made up should the McLaren have performed as it would have been expected to once on slicks. As it turned out, neither Lewis or Jenson were lighting up the timing screens during that final stint, but that in itself was a surprise. Lewis did make up about 5 seconds to Alonso during that last stint and also remember Perez went off track and lost near 5 seconds. If you factor all this in then had Lewis pitted for slicks earlier he would have at the very least been closer and had a chance even though on this occasion it would have likely been to no avail.
kristi
Banned
No offense taken. Also, I didn't use it as a main 'excuse' and I'm taking the season as a whole as oppose to one individual race.
Main point is that McLaren have the fastest package at the moment. One of their drivers should be leading the World Championship. In this case - at this stage - it ought to be Button because Hamilton's had a host of 'issues' beyond his control. It's not just the clutch issue which cost him a lead. It also includes losing out on 2nd (3 points) due to the proverbial 'hard luck' on Safety Car deplyoment to Vettel. It also includes some sub-optimal pitwork/pit calls.
Button's problem, on the other hand, was well within his control: He hit an HRT.
There's a difference.
In a tight championship with a closed up grid, Button needs to be more consistent than Hamilton if he's to over-come the singular flying lap disadvantage that he clearly has to Hamilton. You can't go from Hero-To-Zero in the course of one week in this year's championship. That's what Button did.
Wombcat
Podium Finisher
Well, my point is that I don't think you can make it as clear cut as you have. I don't think the strategy of McLaren was the decider in this race, but it was (mostly) the time they lost on their pitstops. Especially on the first one, which made Alonso jump Hamilton and Button and getting him into the lead (and in control of the race).
http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2012/03/25/2012-malaysian-grand-prix-tyre-strategies-pit-stops/
So we'll just have to agree to disagree.
Those were just the rain scenarios. You're missing my point, the worst case scenario is what actually happened where Hamilton stayed out too long, it didn't rain and his 3rd place was under threat from Vettel who fortunately for Hamilton got a puncture when he was just 2 seconds behind with 9 laps left. They chose a strategy that allowed for the worst possible scenario.
tranquility2k9
Podium Finisher
I didn't say that McLaren strategy decided the race either way. I did explicitly say that even if they had of stopped Hamilton sooner then the race would probably have still been out of his reach but he would have at least been a bit more in the mix. I agree with you that ultimately the pit stop blunders and misfortunes were a bigger factor. All im saying is that, whichever way you look at it, by pitting as late as he did there wasn't really a positive to take out of it, whether you're looking at it from him falling back into Vettel's clutches or losing ground on those in-front - it was just a pretty shocking call and clearly many people cannot see the logic in it.
I guess in a way we're all going round in circles on this issue because the only people who could even start to explain why the decision was actually made would be McLaren themselves. All we know is that from the outside it looked shoddy.
Cookinflatsix
Banned
Hit the proverbial nail on the head there
So far the season LHs ace card his blistering pace has earned him pole each time out, both times his place in front of the grid has been negated by erroneous action by his crew. Both times Button has benefitted. If we assume that the team might make similar mistakes half the time for the rest of the year, then JB simply must finish those races ahead of LH
Smashing into the worst driver on the grid in the worst car is quite amazing for someone whoms main weapon against LHs pace is his calm head and his command of the team.
If we assume that, like last season LH will qualify ahead of JB almost all the time barring team mistakes and the like, then if JB doesn't take advantage each time he finds himself ahead of LH on track, it will be hard for him to beat LH over the season
Comparing JBs mistake to all of LHs last season, I can't think of any where LH crashed into another driver and it was entirely his fault. He had mainly 50/50s and I think he got punished for a few.
JB is lucky to have escaped even an investigation for ramming into a car on track, i though as the master of these conditions he would know to avoid risks and wait a couple more corners till the straight where our HRT would have been dusted with much less risk
Maybe JB, safe in the knowledge that luck is on his side has become a touch cocky or hasty?
Cookinflatsix
Banned
But I don't think I got carried away there
It's got bells and whistles but is exactly how I see it
It's got bells and whistles but is exactly how I see it
Massa, Singapore.
Ok, I don't know exactly what the issues were but I always thought wet tyres need the blocks of tread to move around to generate heat. Are inters the same?
Fenderman
Rooters Reporter
Cookinflatsix
Banned
is that by chance the same Singapore GP where this quote originates?
Ok so let's consider how LHs incident with Massa compares with JB attempting to merge with the HRT?
Hypothetically say JB and Karth had met to compare shampoos before the race, and Karths was found wanting and so he decided, goaded on by his hairdresser to hold JB up and spoil his race leading to JB crashing into , surprisingly though no fault is attached to Karth whatsoever, JB still got a penalty though, Oh hold on.....
I think he's more or less gone and it is not by choice.
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