I think it should be somebody bearded.....
Vettel's next team mate SPECULATIONOMETER
- Thread starter Greenlantern101
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It wont happen but it would be very interesting to see Paul DiResta in the car next to Vettel. DiResta is riding on a lot of hype about who he beat in the 2005 Formula 3 championship. Now who was that again.....
rufus_mcdufus
Champion Elect
Nick Heidfeld???
rufus_mcdufus
Champion Elect
Of course there is the possibility that RBR might not be so dominant next year. By the end of 2015 it's not impossible that Seb could be looking elsewhere as he's clearly not the kind of guy to languish in an uncompetitive car, Unlikely, but not impossible.
Raikkonen&Redbull=PartyTime
Rookie
Seeing as I haven't posted in a while... It's all in my name folks!
Unfortunately there are at least three viewpoints that have to correlate (to an extent) before anyone gets the Red Bull seat:
1) What do Red Bull want to put into Mark's seat?
2) What does Sebastian Vettel want in that seat?
3) Who wants to sit in that seat?
From my perspective, none of the above have black and white answers, for reasons I shall attempt to explain.
Let's look at the first question. Simple logic would dictate you put the fastest known entity into the car that you can afford to pay. As they are Red Bull, they could probably afford to pay anyone if they chose to. But if you could get Fernando or Lewis (I use these names as most forums seem to think Lewis, Fernando and Vettel are on another plane of existence), would you?
History suggests mostly not. F1 team management becomes exceedingly difficult and public when two famously quick and competitive drivers occupy the same team. It usually ends acrimoniously, so would Red Bull want to go down that road? For a company that derives most of its money from marketing, I don't think so. Publicity is publicity, but I doubt Dietrich wants controversy.
So, those two are out (contractually they were out anyway). Button would probably be ideal, as he is fairly rapid without the out and out pace to seriously worry Vettel, but he is thoroughly ensconced at McLaren. Similarly for Felipe; rapid enough without being consistent enough to be a threat, and bedded in at Ferrari. Similarly for Nico; locked down at Mercedes.
Of the rookies, no-one catchies my eye much beyond Bianchi, and he has red backing. This leaves JEV, Danny boy, Pastor Maldonado, Nico H, Romain G, Sergio P, the Force Indias and Kimi. I'm going to label those from least to most likely (IMO):
Pastor Maldonado - rapid, but dangerous, and regularly bins the car for no good reason.
Sergio Perez - poor qualifier, reasonably rapid racer. Slightly inconsistent; tied to McLaren (not that contracts have never been broken before).
Romain Grosjean - quick, but inconsistent in the vein of Pastor. If he had challenge Kimi more frequently this year I would rate him higher.
Adrian Sutil - quick and consistent. I rate his chances lower than Nico H or Paul Di Resta as he comes with baggage (conviction and age).
Paul Di Resta - quick, but I don't get the impression he is a future World champion. Could be an ideal number 2 to Vettel.
Nico Hulkenberg - quick, consistent, young. Could be a future champion IMO.
Daniel Ricciardo - has given the impression of being quicker than JEV without scoring more points. Recently he has been trounced by JEV. I don't rate him, but as he is in their program, so I consider he has an inside track of sorts.
JEV - seems to be getting more rapid. I don't specifically consider him to be better than any of the others on this list, but the inside track gives him is in his favour.
Kimi - from an equity perspective it is a no-brainer. I may be biased, but I believe he is categorically faster than anyone else on this list, and he isn't expensive either.
There are a few issues with Kimi though. Is he motivated, is he willing to be part of the team (do PR etc...), and what if he is too quick? When motivated, I really can't put much distance between Alonso, Hamilton or Kimi in spite of the fanboys howling about how he was beaten by Massa.
Now to the second question. I really do not believe that Sebastian will be bothered by anyone on this list, with the exception of Kimi. Sebastian would be deluded (or naive) to consider himself categorically faster than someone of Kimi's pedigree, and he would really need to consider how he would feel to be challenged by a potentially-faster-than-Mark-Webber driver. Lots of past champions have vetoed, or attempted to, the arrival of fast pretenders to their thrones, so he really wouldn't be all that different if he chose to veto Kimi. He also has a very good relationship with Kimi, something he might not want to jeopardise. Selfishness would dictate Vettel would prefer someone other than Kimi.
And who wants the seat? My guess is, if the regulations were completely static for next year, everyone would want the seat. If there were no strings attached, no contracts, etc... most of the drivers would love to have a go in that car.
But the regulations are changing. Red Bull is not a lock for the quickest car next year. Likely as not it will be quick, but I couldn't see any highly paid, contracted driver giving up their security. None of the drivers are in that position though. So, of the drivers that are eligible, I reckon all would definitely say yes to the drive; apart from Kimi.
Lotus has done good things for Kimi. He has the freedom he needs, and a decent car. If the car were more rapid he would probably stay.
So, to my mind the best logical choice is Kimi Raikkonen. From a team perspective he provides the best bang for buck. He is experienced, he is apolitical, he gets on with the principle requirement of driving fast, and he has a good relationship with Seb. Might he be too rapid for Seb's comfort? Yes, but that is the type of problem most constructor's would be willing to cope with if they are winning championships.
Seb might not like the idea too much, but at the same time whoever he faces next is a step into the unknown. He should trust his abilities.
Pretty much the only universe in which I do not see Kimi going to Red Bull next year is the universe in which Kimi says no. I hope I am not living in that universe.
Unfortunately there are at least three viewpoints that have to correlate (to an extent) before anyone gets the Red Bull seat:
1) What do Red Bull want to put into Mark's seat?
2) What does Sebastian Vettel want in that seat?
3) Who wants to sit in that seat?
From my perspective, none of the above have black and white answers, for reasons I shall attempt to explain.
Let's look at the first question. Simple logic would dictate you put the fastest known entity into the car that you can afford to pay. As they are Red Bull, they could probably afford to pay anyone if they chose to. But if you could get Fernando or Lewis (I use these names as most forums seem to think Lewis, Fernando and Vettel are on another plane of existence), would you?
History suggests mostly not. F1 team management becomes exceedingly difficult and public when two famously quick and competitive drivers occupy the same team. It usually ends acrimoniously, so would Red Bull want to go down that road? For a company that derives most of its money from marketing, I don't think so. Publicity is publicity, but I doubt Dietrich wants controversy.
So, those two are out (contractually they were out anyway). Button would probably be ideal, as he is fairly rapid without the out and out pace to seriously worry Vettel, but he is thoroughly ensconced at McLaren. Similarly for Felipe; rapid enough without being consistent enough to be a threat, and bedded in at Ferrari. Similarly for Nico; locked down at Mercedes.
Of the rookies, no-one catchies my eye much beyond Bianchi, and he has red backing. This leaves JEV, Danny boy, Pastor Maldonado, Nico H, Romain G, Sergio P, the Force Indias and Kimi. I'm going to label those from least to most likely (IMO):
Pastor Maldonado - rapid, but dangerous, and regularly bins the car for no good reason.
Sergio Perez - poor qualifier, reasonably rapid racer. Slightly inconsistent; tied to McLaren (not that contracts have never been broken before).
Romain Grosjean - quick, but inconsistent in the vein of Pastor. If he had challenge Kimi more frequently this year I would rate him higher.
Adrian Sutil - quick and consistent. I rate his chances lower than Nico H or Paul Di Resta as he comes with baggage (conviction and age).
Paul Di Resta - quick, but I don't get the impression he is a future World champion. Could be an ideal number 2 to Vettel.
Nico Hulkenberg - quick, consistent, young. Could be a future champion IMO.
Daniel Ricciardo - has given the impression of being quicker than JEV without scoring more points. Recently he has been trounced by JEV. I don't rate him, but as he is in their program, so I consider he has an inside track of sorts.
JEV - seems to be getting more rapid. I don't specifically consider him to be better than any of the others on this list, but the inside track gives him is in his favour.
Kimi - from an equity perspective it is a no-brainer. I may be biased, but I believe he is categorically faster than anyone else on this list, and he isn't expensive either.
There are a few issues with Kimi though. Is he motivated, is he willing to be part of the team (do PR etc...), and what if he is too quick? When motivated, I really can't put much distance between Alonso, Hamilton or Kimi in spite of the fanboys howling about how he was beaten by Massa.
Now to the second question. I really do not believe that Sebastian will be bothered by anyone on this list, with the exception of Kimi. Sebastian would be deluded (or naive) to consider himself categorically faster than someone of Kimi's pedigree, and he would really need to consider how he would feel to be challenged by a potentially-faster-than-Mark-Webber driver. Lots of past champions have vetoed, or attempted to, the arrival of fast pretenders to their thrones, so he really wouldn't be all that different if he chose to veto Kimi. He also has a very good relationship with Kimi, something he might not want to jeopardise. Selfishness would dictate Vettel would prefer someone other than Kimi.
And who wants the seat? My guess is, if the regulations were completely static for next year, everyone would want the seat. If there were no strings attached, no contracts, etc... most of the drivers would love to have a go in that car.
But the regulations are changing. Red Bull is not a lock for the quickest car next year. Likely as not it will be quick, but I couldn't see any highly paid, contracted driver giving up their security. None of the drivers are in that position though. So, of the drivers that are eligible, I reckon all would definitely say yes to the drive; apart from Kimi.
Lotus has done good things for Kimi. He has the freedom he needs, and a decent car. If the car were more rapid he would probably stay.
So, to my mind the best logical choice is Kimi Raikkonen. From a team perspective he provides the best bang for buck. He is experienced, he is apolitical, he gets on with the principle requirement of driving fast, and he has a good relationship with Seb. Might he be too rapid for Seb's comfort? Yes, but that is the type of problem most constructor's would be willing to cope with if they are winning championships.
Seb might not like the idea too much, but at the same time whoever he faces next is a step into the unknown. He should trust his abilities.
Pretty much the only universe in which I do not see Kimi going to Red Bull next year is the universe in which Kimi says no. I hope I am not living in that universe.
But as there are an ininate number of universes with an infinate number of possibilities there is a universe somewhere where Kimi is actually a banana and crisp sandwich. That might be a good universe to live in.
In all seriousness though. top post!
In all seriousness though. top post!
We don't know for certain that Vettel has any input into driver selection do we? After Malaysia I think RBR would be eager to show publicly and privately that Seb does run the entire show at Red Bull.
It's probably naive to think he has no say in this decision however...
It's probably naive to think he has no say in this decision however...
Horner has said Seb will be consulted.
Because if he isn't, he'll throw an enormous tantrum, and maybe leave the team.
Seriously though, if they DO ask Kimi,he wouldn't want to go to the team as the number 2 driver, and would Vettel put up with him being on an equal contract?
Vettel and Kimi are big mates. I reckon Seb believes in himself enough to think he has the measure of him. Why shouldn't he? he'snever had a team mate who has been able to best him for more than a couple of races running. Him and JEV are the only none rookies never beayen by a team mate over a season in F1.
It won't be Kimi - simply because too many people want it to be him...
Koffindodger
Learner
Many interesting points raised by many people, all with a lot of merit. One very interesting point is the MONEY, Kimi might no longer be the top earner of the grid now days, however, I don't see him taking any less than his team mate, nor do I see Seb accepting a new team mate earning similar amounts, unless it is purely performance related, and I don't think Seb would like that either. I would still like to see Paul DR in the seat, and if Seb is as good as he thinks he is, then he should be able to finely get that monkey off his back......Well Seb are you good enough? 
The Beeb had an interview with Hiorner this morning. He was obviously asked several questions about Webber and his successor, Horner kept on saying that whoever it is will have to be fast, that is the number one requirement.
From what was said later it sounds like he favours either one of the Toto Rosso drivers or the people's favourite, Raikkonen. It sounded like Vettel will not have any real input, maybe he should not have said anything about possibly joining Ferrari some day.
From what was said later it sounds like he favours either one of the Toto Rosso drivers or the people's favourite, Raikkonen. It sounded like Vettel will not have any real input, maybe he should not have said anything about possibly joining Ferrari some day.
Il_leone
World Champion
interesting they say its a shortlist of 3 drivers
It would be interesting to see just how much Red Bull value the constructor's title for which they have won 3 years in a row in picking their replacement for Webber
Vergne today did not have a chance to show his ability because of the tyre blow out
Ricciardo qualified well and kept up with the front runners earlier on but then faded in the last bit when faster cars had newer tyres on
Kimi - Surely he will not hesitate to move if offered ..he was up there and somehow the team did not react to Alonso pitting and lost all those positions
this is the 3rd race in a row where Lotus don;t seem to get it right ever since James Allison has moved so its not a coincidence
It would be interesting to see just how much Red Bull value the constructor's title for which they have won 3 years in a row in picking their replacement for Webber
Vergne today did not have a chance to show his ability because of the tyre blow out
Ricciardo qualified well and kept up with the front runners earlier on but then faded in the last bit when faster cars had newer tyres on
Kimi - Surely he will not hesitate to move if offered ..he was up there and somehow the team did not react to Alonso pitting and lost all those positions
this is the 3rd race in a row where Lotus don;t seem to get it right ever since James Allison has moved so its not a coincidence
Kamui-FastestChefInTheWorld
Points Scorer
The number of times the commentary team mentioned that Ricciardo was 'not just fighting for points but for the Red Bull seat' today...
I'd be very drunk if I'd have had a shot each time
I'd be very drunk if I'd have had a shot each time
Il_leone
World Champion
Ricciardo was very highly rated by those in the paddock and Red Bull as a future world champion
He was the one after Vettel in the Red Bull programme to make everyone take note with British F3 and Renault World Series performances
There is an expectation that Ricciardo would really fly in a competitive car
He was the one after Vettel in the Red Bull programme to make everyone take note with British F3 and Renault World Series performances
There is an expectation that Ricciardo would really fly in a competitive car
Button is apparently second favourite...according to the odds.
http://www1.skysports.com/formula-1...ing-Mark-Webber-at-Red-Bull-have-been-slashed
http://www1.skysports.com/formula-1...ing-Mark-Webber-at-Red-Bull-have-been-slashed
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