Massa basically should have won Germany last year.
With all due respect, RBR, McLaren and Ferrari are a virtual match on race pace now. Ferrari have better KERS than RBR and a new clutch that helps them get away better from the start line. In addition, the law of averages suggests that Massa will out-qualify Alonso 20 to 35 percent of the time and finish ahead of him (Massa's already finished ahead legitimately in 2 of 6 races.) So, there's no reason to count out Massa for a race win. Further, this year there's no chance of Felipe' moving over for Alonso because he was cruelly crucified back home in Brazil after Germany and he has his F1 future to salvage. If he wants to be taken seriously by team managers, he won't be moving over for Alonso at any stage this year if he's ahead.