F1 Weather 2014: The Game - can you beat FB?

[jez101]

After the driest season season in F1 history, let's hope that we get a bit more action in 2014.

I have reluctantly decided to run the game in 2014, but only because Jos the Boss was the only person to volunteer any help (and that was him clicking the wrong option in the poll ).

But because I can also be a bit useless on occasions, I have decided to modify the rules slightly. You will still have to enter a guess one month before the season starts, but you will no longer have to re-affirm that guess in the week before the race. If you don't (or if I forget to post ), your original guesses will count as being confirmed.

That way, even Greenlantern101 will be happy .

To allow you to change, there will be one thread (rather than one per race) and as long as the post is logged before 10pm the Thursday before the race, your guess will be counted as changed (that means 10:00:00 is too late, for those of you who remember the FF1 2012 debacle!) Any edited posts will therefore be ignored. If you want to change again, you can with a new post, but I will accept the last guess before the deadline.

There is also a change to the points, with option B scoring relatively more than last year, mainly because I think it is harder to get right than the others. For the opposite reason, A is now only worth 1 point. To even things out, C is now worth 3. So it's quite different really!

Here is how it works
You get two chances to guess what the weather is going to do at each race next year.

1. your first guess must be entered on or before 16th February 2014
2. your second guess must be entered on or before 10pm on the Thursday before the race

Your choices are A, B, C or D as follows

A = Dry
2 points
no rain

B = Threatening
6 points
tv shots of spectators with umbrellas up, drizzle etc but less than 5 cars do a lap or more on inters / wets

C = Varied
6 points
at least 10 cars do a lap or more on dry tyres and at least 5 cars do a lap or more on inters / wets

D = Full Wet
9 points
less than 10 cars do a lap or more on dry tyres and / or weather related safety car / red flag / start delay

Think of your second guess as the chance to stick or twist.

How do you score points?
Each race will be declared A, B, C or D and the number of points awarded for each outcome is shown in the table above.

If you guess predict correctly with both your first and second guesses (or you don't change your first guess and it is correct), your points are doubled. For example, you say it's going to be dry in Bahrain and you stick with that just before the race, you score 4 points.

If you twist and change your mind with your second guess and get it right the second time, you get the points for the correct answer. So, if you say now that it's going to be B, 'threatening', in Britain, but change your mind to A and it is dry, you score 2 points.

If you twist and change your mind with your second guess and get it right first time, but wrong the second time, you lose two points. For example, if you say now that it's going to be C, 'varied', in Belgium, but change your mind to A but it turns out to be varied after all, you lose 2 points.

If neither guess is right you score 0.

Oh yes, and the last race scores double points (positive and negative) . But because that's in Abu Dhabi, so too does the penultimate race

How to enter
You need to get your initial predictions in on or before 16th February 2014. Please do so in the following format by replying to this thread. Instructions on how to change leading up to a race will be posted after the initial phase closes.

AUS=
MAL=
BAH=
CHI=
ESP=
MON=
CAN=
AUT=
GBR=
GER=
HUN=
BEL=
ITA=
SGP=
JPN=
RUS=
USA=
BRA=
ABU=

Rules
Judge's decision final and not subject to appeal.
Edit: the judge can edit the rules if they choose

 

[Greenlantern101]

Just letting my brain leak...

I think the wet options are too extensive. The game naturally favours choosing dry because firstly rain is rare, and if it does rain you only have a 1 in 3 chance of getting 'how wet' it was correct. I think it would be a fairer game if the wet race option meant that if even just 1 car did 1 lap on inters then it would be classed as wet.

So the voting would simply be for wet or dry no more ABCD

I also think the pre season guess should count for much less points than the pre race prediction as they are a total guess and have nothing to do with actually predicting the weather for the weekend, which is kind of the point.

So preseason guesses Dry race = 1 Wet Race = 2
Pre race predictions Dry race = 4 Wet Race = 8

and as you say if someone forgets or can't be bothered to 'predict' before the race then the preseason guess would be use as the pre race prediction.

Feel free to ignore all of this random rabbiting.

 

[tooncheese]

I also think a wet gamble should have more points, maybe exponential, so A=2, B=4, C=8, D=16?

 

[teabagyokel]

jez101 - How about different dry options - Sun, cloud, wind etc.

 

[Jos the Boss]

I think pre-race should stand if you forget the weekend, otherwise what else is the point of entering pre-season?!

 

[jez101]

Any other opinions? The scoring needs to be set before people start entering. I will give you until Sunday night.

I guess I agree that A was too easy last year. Sorry FB ! Saying that, it should be more than one D correct to win, sushifiesta

 

[jez101]

jez101 - How about different dry options - Sun, cloud, wind etc.

If you want to help, anything is possible

I think pre-race should stand if you forget the weekend, otherwise what else is the point of entering pre-season?!

They will this year, but that is more so that I can spend less time on it. The point of entering pre-season is to test the clairvoyance factor as well as the google factor. Hence the double points that Titch and Westy missed out on.

 

[teabagyokel]

jez101 - I run one-and-a-half games, you run one-and-a-half games. It's all fair, you see.

 

[Mephistopheles]

How does half a game work?

 

[teabagyokel]

FF1 Cup

 

[sushifiesta]

Just a few quick thoughts off the top of my head:

Will/should/does seeing the FIA weather radar screen during the race TV footage immediately make the race count as a B even if there aren't any drizzle/umbrellas?

Point(s) for picking B/C/D if the race is classified as B/C/D but not in the category you picked.

Point(s) if the race is classified as being a neighbouring category to the one you picked. Maybe awarding half points? A and D only have one neighbour though so this would end up favouring picking B/C (and especially B).

I'm not sure how these ideas can be worked in or whether they're worthwhile but I'm good at spurting out the first thing that pops in to my head.

 

[Mephistopheles]

If only one single drop of rain hits the ground or Ron Dennis's bold'pate'ed head does that count as it having rained?

 

[FB]

A single snow flake on the Met Office in London counts as a white Christmas...

 

[teabagyokel]

FB - According to acolytes such as gethinceri, a single correct prediction makes Jos the Boss a weather God. (And impressario of the underbelly of the Internet.)

 

[sushifiesta]

Here is an idea that I actually thought about a bit more:

Categories:
A: No one does a lap on inters/wets = 2pts
B: At least one car does a lap on inters/wets = 4pts
C: At least 10 cars do a lap on inters/wets = 8pts

First Prediction:
Points above awarded if FP1, FP2, Qualifying or Race match the chosen category.

Second Prediction:
Points awarded if the Race matches the chosen category.
2pts deducted if second prediction was wrong but first was right.

I think this gives more potential for doing well with category B/C predictions without over complicating anything or changing the format too much? I'm not sure the points/number of cars for each category are the best choices, they might need fiddling with.

EDIT: In hindsight I don't think these categories work, I think there's probably very few scenarios where you'd have a category B race (it would just end up as category C).

 

[jez101]

Your choices are A, B or C. 'D' no longer exists.

A = Dry
2 points
no rain

B = Threatening
8 points
tv shots of spectators with umbrellas up, drizzle etc
tv pictures of the radar saying 'rain expected in X minutes' or 'it's raining' will count
for clarity: radar images saying 'no rain' or showing rain missing the track will NOT count
but less than 10 cars do a lap or more on inters / wets

C = Wet
5 points
at least 10 cars do a lap or more on inters / wets
or weather related safety car / red flag / start delay

No more changes. These are the categories and points for the season for better or for worse!!

 

[sushifiesta]

After many internal arguments, I am disappointed to announce some reasonably sensible predictions:

AUS=B
MAL=C
BAH=A
CHI=C
ESP=A
MON=A
CAN=B
AUT=B
GBR=C
GER=B
HUN=A
BEL=C
ITA=A
SGP=A
JPN=B
RUS=B
USA=A
BRA=C
ABU=A

 

[Titch]

Here's my shot at it.....
AUS = A
MAL = C
BAH = A
CHI = B
ESP = A
MON = A
CAN = B
AUT = B
GBR = C
GER = A
HUN = A
BEL = C
ITA = A
SGP = B
JPN = A
RUS = A
USA = B
BRA = A
ABU = A

 

[jez101]

Oooh! A serious entry from sushifiesta !

 

[sushifiesta]

I feel dirty.