Grand Prix 2012 Malaysian Grand Prix Practice, Qualifying & Race Discussion

Someone other than Vettel is leading the Championship!

It may be strange to see, but for the first time since Abu Dhabi 2010 someone other than Sebastian Vettel is top of the Championship after Jenson Button won the Australian Grand Prix in commanding fashion with Vettel second and a folorn Hamilton falling foul of a safety car which allowed the German through.

Going into Malaysia it seems apparent that Mclaren have the strongest car as they were far and away the strongest team in Australia and it was only after having to fuel save for 90% of the race that let Red Bull get within distance, when Button and Hamilton were at full throttle for the first 8 laps, they pulled away at over a second a lap which provided a comfortable cushion even though it was wiped out by a safety car due to Vitaly Petrov breaking down on the main straight.

But the Australian Grand Prix raised more questions than it did provide answers, the only thing that we learned was that the not quite so new teams are still as bad as they were last season and Mclaren and Red Bull are the two fastest teams. Ferrari had a shocking qualifying but Fernando Alonso managed to drag it kicking and screaming into 5th place which suggests a better race pace compared to qualifying pace while beleaguered Felipe Massa trundled around in midfield like he was on a Sunday drive in the Australian parks.

lotus are the only team where a question mark still remains about the general competitiveness. Roman Grosjean qualified a remarkable third but was taken out early on by Maldando while returning champion Kimi Raikkonnen failed to get out of first qualifying but managed to fight through the field to finish a very strong seventh which suggests that they do have a strong car but need to ally qualifying with race pace if they are to take the fight to the top teams.

In 2011 Malaysia was a race full of pit stops due to the high degradation of the Pirelli tyres, and while the tyres this year are more conservative and stable, high degradation is still to be expecting and several pit stops are going to be the norm with an unpredictable weekend to come. The only thing to expect is the likelihood of a massive shower at some point during the weekend which would no doubt spice things up.

For Galahad's excellent circuit write up, see here http://cliptheapex.com/pages/sepang-international-circuit/
 
Anyone else think we've got 5 teams this year capable of winning races. 4 currently, but I don't think you can rule out Alonso if Ferrari improve their car. Top 8 covered by 0.445 seconds in qualifying is incredible and Mclaren, Red Bull, Mercedes and Lotus all appear to have different strengths. If we have rain tomorrow, literally anyone could win.

Almost tempted to put a quid on Hulkenberg at 500/1.
 
Yeah I've also thought about Schu taking the lead.

Vettle isn't as far back as MCLaren would like.

He's only 5th, Schu is one of the best starters and damm hard to pass due to straight line speed. And Mercs poor race pace would hold up any McLarens he is in front off.

And Vettel is on a tyre that will go longer.

The McLArens need either to stay ahed of Schu into turn 1 or alternatively rain. They also need Webber to get a good start and it wouldn't hurt if Rosberg or Grodjean could jump Vettel, ideally Grosjean.
 
Anyone else think we've got 5 teams this year capable of winning races. 4 currently, but I don't think you can rule out Alonso if Ferrari improve their car. Top 8 covered by 0.445 seconds in qualifying is incredible and Mclaren, Red Bull, Mercedes and Lotus all appear to have different strengths. If we have rain tomorrow, literally anyone could win.

Almost tempted to put a quid on Hulkenberg at 500/1.
I think we have 4 teams capable of pole position and 3 capable of Winning

McLaren, Lotus, Mercedes and Red-Bull for Pole position

McLaren, Lotus and Red-Bull for winning
 
Baring in mind what tyres people have used. You could see some strategies like this:-

McLaren: (used) Option, (new) Prime, (new) Prime, (used) Option
Webber: (used) Option, (new) Prime, (used) Prime, (used) Option
Vettel: (used) Prime, (new) Prime, (used) Prime, (new) Option

So it looks like Webber is in the worse position as Christian Horner confirmed on Sky that he used 2 new sets of Prime tyres during Q1, which is 1 of the reasons why he couldn't use them in Q3. He therefore only has 1 new set of tyres. The McLaren's saved 2 new sets of Prime tyres, which is probably the optimal strategy. Saying this, Vettel only has 1 new set of Prime tyres like Webber but he is starting on the Prime and finishing on a new Option, which could be very interesting. He may be a little behind but on a track where overtaking is possible he could be a real threat during the last stint.

What is also interesting though is that if the Prime tyre is lasting much longer in the race then McLaren and Webber may do their last stint on a used Prime. If this is the case then even though Vettel has a new option, it may not be quite as much benefit as one may think.

If its dry... I think they are going to try really hard to make it a 3 stop, with option and then 3 prime stints. The undercut will be too tempting for one or two though and they could end up on a 4. I think they have to make it to lap 12 to do 3, but after 9 laps, the undercut will give 2-3 secs a lap.
 
That is all the detail we need right?!
I hope you are wrong. A monsoon thunderstorm means no race. What time does it get dark? a delayed start and the 4 hour rule...

This is what the pros are saying


Clearly, an increased CAPE value of around 1000 joules per kilogram (compared to Friday’s 850 J/kg), was not enough to tip the balance and produce the expected downpour. Many people have stated over the years (rather sarcastically) that being a weather forecaster in Malaysia must be one of the easiest jobs on Earth; ‘Sunshine and thunderstorms – boom, there you have it.’

Sunday Forecast
So, to the race day forecast. The numerical weather models have continued to paint an increasingly wet picture for Sepang day-by-day and this trend continues. First off, we are looking at a projected CAPE value of over 1,500 J/kg by late-afternoon
 
I guess the two "questions" about Vettel are:

1. Can he overtake?
He's proven that with his pass on Alonso in Monza last season and with the one on Rosberg last week in Australia. If you are in a top car you just don't have to overtake as much as when you are in a Sauber or whatever midfield car.

2. Can he deliver a good performance in a car which is not the best?
Undoubtedly yes, apart from that minor achievement in Monza 2008 he has proven last week that he can do very well in these situations. He finished 2nd in Australia last week and he qualified 5th today on the harder tyres, which is something quite astonishing.


He can't win like Button steaming through the field ala Canada and when he has not got the fastest car on the day. You want to mention Toro Rosso MOnza 08 but was not his car set up for the wet

I should point out that in pressure situations he has not been as strong like Canada when he spun on the last lap
 
We have seen Vettel crack under pressure before. Last year, he and Red Bull made it very easy for him.

Considering how young he was in 2009-10 I wasn't surprised we saw a few mistakes from him. Hamilton was hardly the epitome of calm when he won the title in 2008. In fact, in Brazil he almost chucked it away when he allowed Vettel to pass him with 2 (3?) laps to go.

I am a Hamilton fan but I just don't like when people are a bit selective with their memories.
 
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