One key reason the Mercedes engine is so better sorted is it was developed in conjunction with the gearbox. The Ferrari and Renault engines were not. The first time engine and bag o' gears were mated was when they were installed in the cars. Which essentially has reduced those teams to beta-testers.
But I'm not so convinced the Mercedes will be unbeatable, even at Melbourne. Arguments surrounding tire compounds and fuel loads aside, as far as I know no one outside the teams themselves has any idea if or when any testing was being conducted with "qualy power" or when they were adhering to the 0.45 litre/km race limit. It stands to reason that they would want to stress the cars as much as possible and as often as possible during testing, so I am inclined to believe they primarily would have used "qualy power." Who can say how fast the Mercedes is when running at race-pace fuel consumption? They might well dominate qualies but the whole rationale for the 100kg race fuel load limit was to make brake specific fuel consumption the key to victory. To this point, I do not think we have any evidence that Mercedes (nor anyone else) are dominating in that category.
Which is another reason I yet see hope for Red Bull (provided they can get that damned Renault lump sorted). RBR have strung together four consecutive WCCs with a car that clearly was neither as powerful nor as fast as most of the competition, yet it lapped quicker. Newey's designs excel at efficiency. And the RB10 already shows flashes of brilliance. They're still running a more exaggerated chassis rake than all the other teams, and paddock buzz already holds they remain the downforce kings.
From
the F1 Times,
Jenson Button witnessed the RB10's downforce advantage during testing and, whilst he questioned their straight-line speed, he was under no illusion that the car has potential.
"I was driving with [Daniel] Ricciardo for quite a few laps and he couldn't get past me on the straights," explained the McLaren driver.
"He overtook me around the outside of turn 11 instead, which is a high-speed left-hander. I've never seen anything like that before."
Even if Red Bull should come away from Oz and Malaysia completely pointless, it would only take seven race wins to more than recover from those losses and put them back on top in WCC. That would be an absurd ask, except that Vettel comes into Melbourne on a winning streak of NINE. I don't think it is a matter of
IF they will return to dominance, I think it is a matter of
WHEN, and whether that return comes with sufficient races remaining for them to take another WCC.
The greatest irony of all is that the rules tweak that Bernie dreamt up to keep us all on tenterhooks through the final race by preventing him running away with the title might well be what gives Vettel the boost he needs to take WDC #5.
