Melbourne Qually Predictor 2014

[RasputinLives]

Its being suggested in some parts of the press that the team from Enstone's car is better suited to the Renault engine than the Red Bull and that they've certainly got more reliability with it. Could be by the end of the test they're in position as lead Renault team.

Having said that I'm pretty sure Red Bull's issues with fires etc come from having a car design that is pushing the boundaries a bit more and that if they do get it working (When they get it working) it'll be the quicker of the two.

This is all speculation of course.

 

[Bill Boddy]

At the moment it seems that the Renault engines have been running at reduced power. Now, as I understand it, increasing the power will also increase the amount of heat to be dissipated. If this is so and RBR are still having problems on this score (fire extinguishers at the ready at every pit stop) could it not make the situation even worse?

Renault have only until next Friday evening to fix any mechanical problems they have.

 

[Westy]

Slightly off topic, but Malaysia is going to be a huge test for these engines. The heat at that track is going to make it harder to cool those engines.

 

[P1]

Not bad analysis. I also have a feeling that this year is going to be Mercedes vs. McLaren with Ferrari as a wild card factor taking a few wins from both.

After the most recent test though, I'm thinking AMG have the upper hand.

 

[Greenlantern101]

Testing is over and the final results are in. The predicted grid in two weeks time.... IS......drum roll.....

I can see the top 14 being accurate but frankly If Lotus quallify 16th and 22nd then the Enstone team will have yet another new name by the end of the season.

Oh yes and a final caveat, if the above turns out to be 100% accurate, I will require everyone to refer to me as 'The Amazing One'

 

[Fenderman]

Betting shop first thing Monday

 

[Titch]

I do not see Grosjean at the bottom of the pack. But who am I to say.

 

[teabagyokel]

LewNi Tunes for Melbourne then.

 

[Greenlantern101]

Everything crossed for a dry qualifying.

 

[Lew_beauty]

Here's what my random generator on excel came out with. It'll be interesting to see who is closer. Not holding my breath on Vergne and Sutil being that high.

Hulkenberg Force India
Magnussen McLaren
Grosjean Lotus
Vergne Toro Rosso
Sutil Sauber
Rosberg Mercedes
Button McLaren
Bottas Williams
Chilton Marussia
Vettel Red Bull
Perez Force India
Maldonado Lotus
Hamilton Mercedes
Massa Williams
Kvyat Toro Rosso
Bianchi Marussia
Ricciardo Red Bull
Gutierrez Sauber
Raikkonen Ferrari
Kobayashi Caterham
Ericsson Caterham
Alonso Ferrari

 

[mjo]

Or Chilton...

 

[teabagyokel]

I would love to see Chilton beat Vettel anyone!

 

[RasputinLives]

Welcome to Clip The Apex Lew_beauty

Have a welcome mostache

If your excel spreadsheet is correct we're in for a hell of a race!

 

[teabagyokel]

Also some introspection at Maranello!

 

[Greenlantern101]

Really pissed off Melbourne has given us yet another wet qualifying. Still the predictor accuracy is not too badly dented by some drivers being out of position. For the second year in a row just a 3 place margin of error for the predictor.

Of the drivers out of position, most notable is Seb due to a yellow flag and Kimi crashing and causing the yellow flag. Jenson also had a shocker with KMag 7 places ahead showing the McLaren true pace.

Dan showing the Red Bulls are fast and championship contenders yet again, and yet again the Red bulls have been running under their true pace in testing for reasons various. If Seb hadn't been out of position and had managed say 3rd place, then RB would yet again be the biggest sand bagger in testing.

Torro Rosso have however really come from nowhere. They don't have a history of sand bagging since 2010. Yet a gain of 6.5 places average over testing makes them the biggest improvers / sand baggers for 2014.

The dismal prediction for Lotus has come true, only worse. Oh dear.

Williams prediction was a little optimistic even with SBF adjustment. I hope they look better in the dry, I had big hopes for them this year.

Anyway here is the result in full....... Oh yeh before I forget .. I nailed the pole position result.....Just saying.

 

[RasputinLives]

Good job on this Greenlantern101

It shows given a little bit of Maths you can just about make sense of testing.

 

[Quintessentially]

Good analysis Greenlantern101 however I would argue Redbull were not sandbagging as reliability issues prevented them from showing the true pace of the car and they've only just about been able to so this weekend. A few pundits have said that aerodynamically the car looked strong in Bahrain despite the gremlins and Vettel going out in Q2 today clearly demonstrates the issues they have to navigate.

 

[Greenlantern101]

Quintessentially I totally agree, I have said before that I really just use 'sand bagging' as a convenient phrase. Its catchier than having to say 'running uncharacteristally slowly for various legitimate reasons in contrast with the true speed potential present in the car'

sand bagging - catchier.

 

[Bill Boddy]

I don't think that the yellow flags made that much different to Vettel's position, in fact it could well have put him spot on the prediction. Button was also disadvantaged (he didn't get called in front of the stewards which sort of says he could well have backed off further than Vettel).

Until the FIA timing is available I have to rely on the F1.com timing screen, it appears that Vettel did a blob in all his sectors.

 

[Quintessentially]

Vettel was apparently disadvantaged by an electronic issue with the power unit not the yellow flags.