Will there still be a change line ups at the top for 2012?

[cider_and_toast]

It strikes me that with another season of almost unchanged regulation for 2012 with with the likelyhood that the status quo will remain for next year with the RBR cars ahead of the field and the Mclarens and Ferraris snapping at their heels to catch up there will be a few teams looking at their driver line ups and wondering if they made a mistake with some of the contracts.

Massa will clearly be out of favour with Ferrari in 2012 and I expect in Italy he is already shouldering a large chunk of the blame for a less than impressive season at Marinello. For all the sponsorship and attention that Schumacher has given to the Merc team after their purchase of Brawn it has to be said that perhaps they will be regretting the three year deal.

2013 will see one of those massive shake ups in the driver market that comes around every 5 years with a seats at Red Bull, Ferrari and Mercedes almost certainly available and as a result a seat at Mclaren could also open up.

Does anyone feel that the 2012 driver line up may yet change? Could Schumacher call it quits or will Massa be shoved out, contract or no contract?

With several rumours that Button could be the ideal replacement for Massa I would imagine that he would be hoping that Massa won't be going anywhere for next season as the only likely candidates to replace Massa next year would be from outside of F1 or someone like Sergio Perez.

Di Resta is the most likely candidate waiting in the wings should Schumacher walk away or move upstairs with Mercedes.

 

[KekeTheKing]

It's a shame that Webber and Massa fill 2 of the 6 (8?) prime seats. But it appears that RBR and Ferrari are very happy with that arrangement.

 

[cider_and_toast]

Interestingly, Webber accounts for 37% of Red Bulls constructors championship points while Massa only accounts for 31% of Ferrari's with Webber only once having taken points from Seb and Massa never having taken points from Alonso.

 

[Slyboogy]

I think RBR have made a mistake in keeping Webber on for next season, they should have promoted one of the Toro Rosso drivers, otherwise it feels the Red Bull driver programme (apart from Vettel) is becoming a waste of investment.

Massa as much as I like the guy, I had faith in him to actually trouble Alonso, he looked like his old self in China, but he's had some very poor luck this season, and I don't think he's had luck in any race, plus he's not keeping up with Alonso for whatever reasons it may be, I think he should move this season to another team to restore his reputation, or he could try and stick it out at Ferrari next season and try and prove his worth, don't see that happening the way Ferrari are treating him compared to Alonso. I would like to see someone in the Ferrari challenging Alonso.

I don't see Schumacher retiring this season, he's improved this season compared to last season, he will probably stick it out one more year, who knows he might keep improving year by year.

Williams are looking to replace Barrichello, Maldonado is in contract talks to stay. Force India is the big question mark, they have two drivers currently performing well, and another driver who has great talent, VJ says he will went until December until his line up.

Renault is another one that will have changes I think, Petrov's lost a Russian sponsor, I read an article on Kubica (which I will put up in the Kubica thread) that he will be in car from November-January, and Renault have stated that their line up will be decided at the end of October, they have 4 drivers who could take the seat, the way Renault's going I wouldn't be surprised by the Grosjean-Senna line up.

Think Virgin are still unsure on d'Ambrosio, god knows what HRT are thinking driver line up wise...

Everyone else seemingly is staying put.

 

[Slyboogy]

Interestingly, Webber accounts for 37% of Red Bulls constructors championship points while Massa only accounts for 31% of Ferrari's with Webber only once having taken points from Seb and Massa never having taken points from Alonso.

I am sure Massa finished ahead of Alonso in Malaysia and China, and then Canada where Alonso DNF'd (don't know whether this one counts or not since Alonso was out)

 

[ExtremeNinja]

Interestingly, Webber accounts for 37% of Red Bulls constructors championship points while Massa only accounts for 31% of Ferrari's with Webber only once having taken points from Seb and Massa never having taken points from Alonso.

The percentage difference in points between positions is reduced as you go back through the pecking order. this must be taken into account if we are going to calculate championship point deltas between teammates in this fashion.

 

[KekeTheKing]

the way Renault's going I wouldn't be surprised by the Grosjean-Senna line up.

I don't think that pairing would worry the rest of the paddock very much.

 

[Slyboogy]

I don't think that pairing would worry the rest of the paddock very much.

Oh it will...I think Alguersuari is already afraid that Senna's on the current grid after he got wiped out after his best qualifying result to date.

 

[cider_and_toast]

I am sure Massa finished ahead of Alonso in Malaysia and China, and then Canada where Alonso DNF'd (don't know whether this one counts or not since Alonso was out)

You may well be right. I only gave the results a quick scan.

The percentage difference in points between positions is reduced as you go back through the pecking order. this must be taken into account if we are going to calculate championship point deltas between teammates in this fashion.

Again, it was just a quick tot up not an exact study so I'm sure you're right

 

[Brogan]

The percentage difference in points between positions is reduced as you go back through the pecking order.

I'm not sure that has any relevance as a percentage value of the constructor points was quoted.

Ferrari have 268 points.
Alonso has amassed 184 points, which is 68.5%
Massa has amassed 84 points, which is 31.5%

Each driver has an equal chance within their respective team of scoring points relative to their team mate.

In old money it's 69.9% / 30.1%
For Red Bull in old money it's 60.8% / 39.2%

Either way, Massa still comes out looking fairly poor.

 

[Bill Boddy]

...., don't see that happening the way Ferrari are treating him compared to Alonso....

In what way are Ferrari treating Massa differently? One of Massa's problems is having to use the option tyre in Q1 on too many occasions which is not Ferrari's fault. He also has always seemed to be fast at his good circuits and slow at the others, better drivers somehow don't seem to lose so much on their not so good ones.

 

[Slyboogy]

In what way are Ferrari treating Massa differently? One of Massa's problems is having to use the option tyre in Q1 on too many occasions which is not Ferrari's fault. He also has always seemed to be fast at his good circuits and slow at the others, better drivers somehow don't seem to lose so much on their not so good ones.

Strategy for one, I am sure there are a few other factors aswell...

 

[no-FIAt-please]

At the end of the day it comes down to speed. And Massa is lacking heavily in that area. In fact he is comparing similarly to the Alonso-Piquet season at Renault in 2008, where Alonso scored 61 points, Piquet 19 points which equates to 32.1% of Alonso's points hall. This season Alonso has 184 points and Massa has 84 points which equates to 45.6% of Alonso's points. Consider the fact that while Massa is being pushed aside this season in 2008 Piquet was absoloutely walked over by Renault in a bid to help Alonso which even included him risking his and other's safety in Singapore. Bear in mind that there is only a 13.5% difference there and many people considered that to be a terrible season of Piquet's it really does highlight how poor Massa has fared with Alonso since his comeback.

There are three scenarios that explain Massa's lack of speed. Perhaps he was just had an incredibely lucky year in 2008, maybe that F2008 was a dominant car that looked only good with an unmotivated Raikkonen and a slow Massa or maybe that crash really did affect Massa and he no longer is the driver he once was.

Same goes for Webber. I just think that he got very lucky in 2010 AND yet still failed to beat Vettel and Alonso. Not only did Vettel lose around 65 points in reliability but because if them Webber recieved more points in the positions he picked up in his bulletproof RB6. Just goes to show that while Webber is an ok driver he is by no means an ace and perhaps it is time to hang up his (racing) gloves.

The same thing that has happend to Webber could yet happen to Button, after all Button is 31 now and could only have a few competitive years left in F1. While many hail this as Button's best (or second best) season in F1 he is only beating Hamilton by 17 points (or just under 8 in old money) which goes to show even when all the things are going his way he would still have trouble and honestly next season if Hamilton has a solid season I could see Jenson turning into Mark Webber.

Although it is currently unlikely that the top line ups will change I think in the near future (when the contracts that are currently being drawn up expire) that the drivers in the frame for a move up the grid are Di Resta, Rosberg and Kobayashi. Currently I don't view Mercedes as a 'top' team however I think by 2013 they will be a force to recken with in F1 and while I don't think they will be title challengers I do think they will be able to deliver the odd win.

Last but not least, although he may be 32 let us not forget Kimi Raikkonen, should he only sign a one year deal at Williams and have one of his 'McLaren' seasons then he could well be back in the frame for a seat at a top team.

 

[teabagyokel]

While many hail this as Button's best (or second best) season in F1 he is only beating Hamilton by 17 points (or just under 8 in old money) which goes to show even when all the things are going his way he would still have trouble and honestly next season if Hamilton has a solid season I could see Jenson turning into Mark Webber.

He's already a World Champion, and therefore there'll be a hell of a lot less bitterness, at the very least.

In what way are Ferrari treating Massa differently? One of Massa's problems is having to use the option tyre in Q1 on too many occasions which is not Ferrari's fault. He also has always seemed to be fast at his good circuits and slow at the others, better drivers somehow don't seem to lose so much on their not so good ones.

Well, they're not giving him great strategy calls. I believe, however, this may be because he can't get his strategies to work.

Massa isn't coming close to Alonso! How happy di Montezemelo, Domenicali and perhaps Alonso are with this arrangement is important. However, I don't think Ferrari have a lot to lose by putting Bianchi or Perez or di Resta or anyone else in the car with the pace Massa is showing.

I think Massa and Webber will have different seats for 2013, at the least!

 

[FB]

Massa and Webber at Renault with Flav back in charge....

You heard it here first!

 

[RasputinLives]

I think the kicker for me on Massa is that he's not finished higher than 5th all season. Yes the Ferrari is most likely the 3rd fastest car but his team-mate has 6 podiums and a win under his belt. I like the guy but its just not good enough.

As for the OP question I think the likelyhood is we'll see the same line up's next year but I am keeping an open eye on the Button situation. If I were at Ferrari I'd pay Massa off and bring in Button or at least try. Seems a no brainer for me espeically as Alonso has already said he'd like Button as a team-mate. If that happens then I see Rosberg moving to the Mclarens(you know thats what he's holding out for on his contract anyway) and Di Resta coming in at Merc.

However by the big grin on Martin Whitmarsh's face when asked about it on the BBC Forum I get the feeling Mclaren feel that a deal with Jenson has already been done so that will put an end to that.

I don't think Schumi will retire now because he'd lose faith - unless he could back of with an injury for an excuse(exactly what I thought was going to happen on Sunday when Medical Car was called out). Webber def has a seat for next year unless he decides to call it a day through shame. As for why Red Bull chose to keep Webber for another year I think its simply down to the fact that his replacement has already been chosen and its Daniel Ricciardio - they just want to give him another year lower down the grid before they bring him in. I think Ferrari's plan A is to the same thing with Perez too

As for 2013 I see it going a bit like this:

Red Bull:
Sebastian Vettel
Danial Ricciardio

Mclaren:
Lewis Hamilton
Jenson Button

Ferrari:
Fernando Alonso
Sergio Perez

Mercedes:
Nico Rosberg
Paul Di Resta

Of course the spanner in the works in all this is Lewis Hamilton. I believe he will drive for Red Bull one day - at one point I thought it would be next season. Now I just don't know.

 

[Slyboogy]

Do you mean 2013?

Or do you think Ferrari are likely to pay off Massa and bring Button in?

 

[RasputinLives]

I meant 2013 at the end yes Sly - corrected that.

I'm thinking probably no on Ferrari and Button but I wouldn't be stunned if it happened