The 2011 Season

[teabagyokel]

Vettel is in essentially the same place as Alonso was in mid-2006. 6 wins and three second places, a huge lead and Ferrari coming back at him.

Differences are that his team-mate is going to take points off Ferrari, McLaren might do too, and he's further ahead.

 

[Brogan]

The Race Hub has been updated: http://cliptheapex.com/pages/2011-race-hub/

Vettel's inexorable climb to his second successive WDC continues.

Ferrari are also homing in on McLaren's second place in the WCC.

Mercedes have jumped Renault for fourth place.

 

[Boyle]

I was just thinking - Mark Webber still has not led a single lap at all this year!!!* And he wonders why he's the clear number two driver!

*(Thanks to Teabag's old avatar )

 

[Slyboogy]

I was just thinking - Mark Webber still has not lead a single lap at all this year!!!* And he wonders why he's the clear number two driver!

When was the last he even lead a race? Wasn't Abu Dhabi, or Brazil, or Japan, or Korea

 

[Boyle]

When was the last he even lead a race? Wasn't Abu Dhabi, or Brazil, or Japan, or Korea

Really? Might have a look at lap charts then from last year

 

[no-FIAt-please]

When was the last he even lead a race? Wasn't Abu Dhabi, or Brazil, or Japan, or Korea

Are you sure about Japan, because he only finished 1 second behind and I doubt they would have qued in the pits. Therefore Webber pits later (as the leader (Vettel) would be allowed the benefit of pitting first) allowing him to take the lead.

 

[Slyboogy]

Hm....I have my doubts over Japan, but I think Vettel pitted after Webber, can't be sure...

 

[Boyle]

Therefore Webber pits later (as the leader (Vettel) would be allowed the benefit of pitting first) allowing him to take the lead.

Ah but that is applying this year's rules, when the undercut is very important, to last year, when drivers would stay out to avoid the slower prime tyre for as long as possible.

 

[Brogan]

Lap leaders (and tons of other stuff) available here: http://www.manipef1.com/results/2011/australia/race/leaders

So far this year the following drivers have led:

Vettel
Hamilton
Button
Alonso
Massa
Rosberg

 

[Boyle]

Mark actually led for all of two laps during the pitting phase in Brazil and also for one at Japan.

www.fia.com/EN-GB/SPORT/CHAMPIONSHIPS/F1/2010/BRAZIL/Pages/lap_chart.aspx

The last time he led a lap outright was in Hungary all the way back on the 1st of August 2010...

 

[Slyboogy]

That's a long time eh? That his last win aswell and he's never since then looked in a position to win after that

Lap leaders (and tons of other stuff) available here: http://www.manipef1.com/results/2011/australia/race/leaders

So far this year the following drivers have led:

Vettel
Hamilton
Button
Alonso
Massa
Rosberg

You forgot Bernd Maylander in your list

 

[Lewywo4]

That's a long time eh? That his last win aswell and he's never since then looked in a position to win after that

You forgot Bernd Maylander in your list

 

[no-FIAt-please]

I have to say McLaren have been truly awful this season, if it weren't for them Hamilton and Button could have had a lot more success this year. First example is Malaysia making Hamilton pit too soon, forcing him to go further on his last set of tyres. Some will say that they were good in China, but McLaren themselves addmitted they hadn't planned on 3 stops and just adjusted for it. In Turkey that had bad pit stops that kept Hamilton in there for over 10 seconds. Monaco the Q3 startegy mess that ruined Hamilton's weekend and when they were in a position to win the race they pitted Button when no other team pitted their drivers. In Canada they brought the wrong rear wing which ruined their chance of a strong result at a track which many thought suited the characteristics of the MP4-26. In Europe they said that it was just a 'blip' in form, what does this mean? Was the car fast and they set it up wrong or were they out-developed by the other teams? Britain brought the mess that was another stupid strategy in Q3, underfueling Hamilton which possibly cost them a much needed podium at their home GP, and just when it looked like the McLaren pit crew would be the class of the field for once they only attach 3 wheels to Button's car. How on earth do they still think that they can win a championship in 2011?

 

[Brogan]

Even if Mark wins the last 10 races, as long as Seb V comes second at 7 of them and third at 3 of them, he will still win the WDC by 1 point.

If Fernando wins the last 10 races, Seb just needs 3 second places and 7 third places.

One less of each if Lewis or Jenson win all of the remaining races.

 

[Bill Boddy]

Even if Mark wins the last 10 races, as long as Seb V comes second at 7 of them and third at 3 of them, he will still win the WDC by 1 point.

If Fernando wins the last 10 races, Seb just needs 3 second places and 7 third places.

One less of each if Lewis or Jenson win all of the remaining races.

If the Ferrari is faster then a lot will depend upon Massa. Were Alonso to win the rest of the races this season and Massa were to come second in them it would not matter what Vettel did. So maybe Ferrari should be ensuring that Massa is happy and getting good strategies.. In fact I think Alonso could win the WDC even if he let Massa win the Brazilian GP whilst he came second.

Either Hamilton or Button could win, in this case the driver would need to win them all. At the present car speeds this seems the more unlikely scenario.

However, what will happen is that in Hungary Vettel will take control again and make himself, barring failures, WDC again.

 

[F1Yorkshire]

The season is over, the only thing that is going to change the final result is if Seb is unlucky and has a bad crash braking a leg similar to Schumacher (can't remember the year). As we don't want to wish injuries on drivers we better start looking forward to 2012 for a potential new champion and just spend the rest of the season enjoying the exciting battles for places 2-24!

 

[Incubus]

One significant factor concerning Ferrari that seems to have gone a bit unnoticed among the diffuser controversies, was the modifications to their car's rear-end seemed to have eliminated one of their major peoblems at some races this season: Alonso set the third fastest time a tenth shy of Vettel's on THE HARDER tyre compound.
Should make the fight for second in the championship quite interesting.

 

[Fenderman]

If the Ferrari is faster then a lot will depend upon Massa. Were Alonso to win the rest of the races this season and Massa were to come second in them it would not matter what Vettel did. So maybe Ferrari should be ensuring that Massa is happy and getting good strategies.. In fact I think Alonso could win the WDC even if he let Massa win the Brazilian GP whilst he came second.

Either Hamilton or Button could win, in this case the driver would need to win them all. At the present car speeds this seems the more unlikely scenario.

However, what will happen is that in Hungary Vettel will take control again and make himself, barring failures, WDC again.

Unfortunately, for any of these scenarios to happen the trends of F1 history will (which may have something to do with the natural order of probability, entropy, etc.) will need to be dramatically transformed. Historically, the driver and car with the scale of advantage that Vettel and the RBR have attained thus far have always sealed the championship. Just taking Button and the Brawn in 2009 as an example. The advantage built in the first half of the season was such that when the "law of diminishing returns" kicked in and the technological improvements to the Brawn grew less and less the more pronounced advances made by the other teams allowed them to close the gap in performance. However, that was not enough to enable another driver/car combo to break the Brawns hold on the titles. Indeed, Buttons only realistic competition for the WDC came from Rubens.

For those reasons I have resigned myself to enjoying each individual race as it comes and have already chugged a can of cider to Vettel and Red Bull - since I know I will be sick of them by the end of the season and unwilling to cheer what will have been a tremendous achievement.

 

[no-FIAt-please]

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/93181

This excellent article by Autosport analyses the truth behind the overtakes in 2011. It determines a paticular reason behind an overtake (if there is one) and then says how many overtakes in a given race that reason represented. The analysis finally sums up that DRS isn't that important and it's more the tyres. But also states that the nature of the tracks are important and that 'normal' passes are more frequent this year. Looks like the rules changes have performed well in the first half of the season.

 

[Brogan]

This excellent article by Autosport analyses the truth behind the overtakes in 2011.

Already being discussed here: http://cliptheapex.com/threads/f1-2011-overtaking-analysis.2349/page-22#post-65841

It has actually been done by Mercedes, a lot of sites have just reproduced it without really crediting the source.