I wonder if any kind of guilty verdict on the serious 'cheating' charge would make Mercedes pack up. It wasn't long ago the rumours were they were 50/50 on pulling out as a team. Just the fact that they've been found guilty of cheating might be enough - large fine, any ban, removal of points could push them over the edge. A lesser charge of not following procedure but not to deliberately gain a sporting advantage seems more likely as a political solution amenable to everyone but Horner. I remember the feeling of resentment with McLarens treatment, any of that feeling in Germany and Merc will be off and so will their engines.
Similarly for Pirelli, although the charge of cheating is less for them as they're not a competitor so can't really cheat. They're approach yesterday did feel very ballsy and not exactly one of looking out for future relationships. Unless Bernie has a tyre supplier lined up for next year (and most major players have said no already, but no can turn to yes I suppose) the prospect of Pirelli taking their ball and walking away must surely limit potential. This late in the game it would surely mess up the 2014 season. Any heavy sanction on Pirelli will a) make them inclined to walk and b) almost certainly be overturned at a proper court.
Once all the dust settles I think its the FIA that will come out looking stupid, Pirelli amateurish and Mercedes sheepish for being caught stretching reality a bit too far. What happened with Ferrari (if they did test components, and thats a big IF) could run and run and provide more amunition for those that say the FIA is way too close to Ferrari still. There are a lot of questions for both Ferrari and the FIA to answer if half of what Merc have suggested is true about their test and if that knowledge was available to the FIA then not sending Ferrari to the IT, where they could have just been let off, suggests they were being protected before the 'independent' panel got involved.
If Merc are found guilty but the spotlight doesn't get put on Ferrari then that will build exactly the kind of resentment around Merc and in Germany that will make them pull out.
No way the FIA will throw Ferrari in the fire, can't afford to lose Mercedes, (without a replacement lined up) can't afford to lose Pirelli for next year. This needs a very political verdict. Rule clarification and small fines for administrative errors, categorically not cheating. It will be worth it just to see Horner fuming!
Yup.
