CTA Race of the Year 2013

sushifiesta

Champion Elect
Contributor
We have a poll after each race to give it a score out of ten, so why not collect them together and find out what Clip the Apex's race of the year will be?! And who will win the wooden spoon?

On the Fridays of Grand Prix weekends I will look at the results of the poll from the race before and calculate mean scores etc. Any votes after I look at the poll to calculate these won't count, apart from possibly in a future tiebreak situation, should it be needed. In this order of priority, I am going to calculate the following stats for each race:

  1. Average (mean) score excluding the top and bottom 10% of scores. This means that if 50 people vote I exclude the votes of the 5 people who gave the race the worst score and the 5 people who gave the race the best score, for example. This is to try and remove a bit of bias due to driver/team favourites.
  2. The real average (mean) score.
  3. The middle (median) score.
  4. The most common (mode) score.
  5. The number of people that voted.
So, if two races tie on the average mean excluding the top/bottom 10% (to one decimal place), then the real mean will be used as a tiebreaker, then the mode and so on right down to the number of people that voted (more people wins). In the unlikely event that it's still a tie after all this I will either create another poll to decide the winner/loser or go back to the poll results to see if more people have voted since I calculated the stats.

The results from the three races so far are as follows, with the colours representing highest to lowest scores from green to red:

(table removed due to calculation errors, see below)

So, Malaysia is the current leader with a score of 7.7 out of 10 probably largely thanks to the emergence of Vettel's evil twin brother :snigger:. Let the battle commence! I will post the results both here and in the poll for each race.

EDIT: On reflection I have swapped the median and mode in the priority list.

EDIT2: On request I have added the Standard Deviation. This gives an indication of the spread in people's scores, so for example a race where a lot of people give the race 1/10 and a lot of people give the race 10/10 would have a large standard deviation. I will not use this as part of calculating the best race of the year, but it can be used for the "most controversial" or "most disputed" race of the year.

So in addition to best race of the year, we will have:
  • Worst race of the year - Calculated using the same procedure as the best race of the year.
  • Most disputed race of the year - Calculated using the standard deviation. If there is a draw I will either use the difference between the mean and the mean excluding the top/bottom 10%. the difference between the highest and lowest score, or create a poll.
 

Mephistopheles

Banned
Contributor
I thought about dong something like this myself and actually did work out a mean, median and mode for a couple of races last year but I couldn't figure out a way of discounting those voters who rate a race simply on how badly or how well their own favourite driver did rather than the quality of the race itself....
 

RasputinLives

Leave me alone I'm on Smoko
Contributor
I'll put it back on track.

So where do we think Bahrain is going to rank? Usually not peoples favourite but then China is usually a cracker and thats bottom so far.
 

sushifiesta

Champion Elect
Contributor
Well, Malaysia had rain and controversies and Australia is the first race of the season which bumps its score up a bit I think (you can see that from the difference between the real mean and the mean excluding +/- 10%, Australia loses quite a bit because some people gave it a high score because they were relieved to have F1 back I think). China is probably the first "normal" race we've had and there was a general sense of dissatisfaction with the tyres and DRS.

Bahrain is another normal race but the tyres seem less of a factor this weekend with pretty much everyone running in Q3 and if they've got DRS right I think it's set up for a better race than China. We have Alonso and Vettel right at the front as favourites to win but also Rosberg who blew everyone away in qualifying. Then Massa is lurking just behind on an alternative strategy. Behind them we have the very competitive Force Indias who will be trying to hold off the Lotuses as well as Webber and Hamilton who are out of place after grid drops. I predict that Bahrain will slip in to 2nd place, but we will see in a few weeks time!
 

sushifiesta

Champion Elect
Contributor
Bahrain preview: After what I think was a spectacular race in Bahrain the early birds have had their say and the current mean (excluding +/- 10%) after 36 votes is 7.9, which would nudge it just ahead of Malaysia as the best race so far. Get your votes in and we'll see whether that score is maintained on the Friday of the Spanish GP!
 

sushifiesta

Champion Elect
Contributor
Bahrain Results

The results from Bahrain are in and after 55 votes it gets an adjusted mean of 7.9. making it the best race of the season so far (deservedly, in my opinion)!

Here is the updated table:

(table removed due to calculation errors, see below)

Can Spain top Bahrain or will it be a total bore and knock China out of the wooden spoon position? We'll have an idea soon and results will be posted on the 23rd May (or thereabouts)! Happy voting!
 

sushifiesta

Champion Elect
Contributor
My apologies, but I think I made some calculation errors. I am now using an automatic process and these are the corrected values (I hope, I have double checked but maybe I've ballsed it up again). I have had to use the current poll results because of this, which means a couple of extra voters for some races (old tables removed):

ctaroty.PNG


Bahrain and Malaysia are now tied for the lead based on the adjusted mean, but Bahrain is still in the lead thanks to a better "normal" average. Malaysia and China also swap places in the fight for "most disputed" race so far.

In other news, Spain preview! It's looking like Spain is going to take the wooden spoon, and by some margin too - the adjusted mean after 37 votes is a measly 4.3!!
 
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