Mephistopheles I am
not predicting that Hamilton (and Raikkonen, if you look) would have won 6 championships and I am including this year. If you read the line under that list you'll see what I think is a more realistic proposition - Alonso and Hamilton on 3 championships each, Raikkonen on 2 and Vettel on 1. Reading between the lines, you'll see that that means I have given Vettel enough credit to have beaten Hamilton (as team mates) in at
least one of his first two seasons at McLaren.
The first list with Hamilton having 6 championships is the maximum possible based on the drivers I thought would be in contention for championships in each year if the regulations didn't change. Based on the fact Ferrari and McLaren had a very healthy advantage on the rest in 2008 I have assumed that that would have continued through 2009-2013. Combine that with the drivers I speculate could have been at those teams in those years and you get the list of maximum possible WDCs won - it is impossible for all those drivers to win that many championships.
I don't really understand what you are arguing in your second paragraph. If the aerodynamic regulations hadn't changed in 2009 (well, after 2008) double diffusers would not have existed! Honda and Toyota had been in the sport for years with those regulations and not managed to break through to the top and BMW Sauber went off the boil in the second half of 2008. It's difficult to know whether those or other teams would have bridged the gap at some point but the safe bet is that Ferrari and McLaren would have continued to be at the top having dominated 2007 and 2008.
To cut a long story short, Red Bull would not have been championship contenders starting from 2009 were it not for the regulations overhaul and Vettel would not have won 3 (4) championships. That doesn't make him less of a driver, he'd just be a less successful one like Alonso, Hamilton and Raikkonen are now.
Also, I did say it was speculative bull shit.