Poll Who do we think could be 2017 drivers world champion

Winner of 2017 World Championship

  • Lewis Hamilton

    Votes: 12 31.6%
  • Nico Rosberg

    Votes: 4 10.5%
  • Daniel Riccardio

    Votes: 12 31.6%
  • Max Verstappen

    Votes: 8 21.1%
  • Sebastian Vettel

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Kimi Raikkonen

    Votes: 1 2.6%
  • Fernando Alonso

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Stoffel Vandoorne

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Other (Say Below)

    Votes: 1 2.6%

  • Total voters
    38
  • Poll closed .

vintly

Mostly bacon
Premium Contributor
It's an opportunity for Bottas to prove himself as more than just an 'also-ran'. Ideal scenario is that he is causing trouble for Hammy through seriously fast, aggressive and clean driving, to the point where he nicks a load of races on merit. I don't think that will happen more than a couple of times. He may bag a few more through circumstance, but Hammy's simply too fast and aggressive for him.

The bookies have him coming 4th at 5/1 behind the Bulls. Hammy 5/4. Interestingly Max is rated quicker than Ricciardo at 10/3 and 4/1 respectively. Chuckle.
 

Titch

Champion Elect
Premium Contributor
I think Max is seriously fast, but I'm not sure he' s got the self discipline to hold it together, yet. But he'll get there, I don't think that will happen this season though.
 

Bill Boddy

Professional layabout
Contributor
vintly bookies do not rate anyone. They calculate the odds to ensure that they will win by the maximum amount, who that is they do not care about.
 

vintly

Mostly bacon
Premium Contributor
Bill Boddy That bookies don't care who wins is precisely why they are a useful reference. The fact that they add a margin to ensure they profit is also irrelevant when comparing drivers' odds. For example, if a generous bookie thinks Max is more likely to beat Ricciardo over the season, he might offer 10/1 for Max, and 9/1 for Ric. Or a very tight bookie may offer 7/4 and 6/4 respectively. The point is that the gap between the drivers' odds is marginal, regardless of how good the bet is for the punter. Hence bookie's odds represent an unbiased reference. Ok there are some small biases from country to country based on driver nationalities but even that flattens out on the bigger online betting sites.

Sorry if I'm teaching you how to suck eggs! Maybe I've missed your point. What could be a clearer way of rating someone than providing odds?
 
Last edited:

Wombcat

Podium Finisher
Bill Boddy
Sorry if I'm teaching you how to suck eggs! Maybe I've missed your point. What could be a clearer way of rating someone than providing odds?
They amend their odds depending on how much money is bet on anyone. If a lot of people bet on Verstappen, his odds will change.
 

vintly

Mostly bacon
Premium Contributor
Sure, the odds drift with heavy betting, but it has to be a substantial amount of money for the odds to move more than a tad. And if one bookie is feeling particularly brave in any given situation, he might elect to offer longer odds on a near-favourite, to increase action, and his potential reward. Of course it increases risk too but that's the prerogative of each bookie.

Bookies do rate drivers (Ok driver and car). With numbers, clear as day. Then odds can drift due to market forces. They calculate the odds to create as much action as possible, with a margin at every opportunity. This means offering as much value as they can whilst making money. Their initial rating is unbiased, generally based on a number of expert opinions, and generally turns out to be fairly accurate, given that they are still in business!
 

FB

Not my cup of cake
Valued Member
Indeed not. Suggests that some think he is the best driver on the grid, or he has the best management team ;)
 

Incubus

Champion Elect
Actually I don't think either Alonso's or Raikkonen's management teams were consulted nor cared an awful lot whether they had dekchairs or ice-creams. :)
 

Bill Boddy

Professional layabout
Contributor
Really?
Willi Weber was known as "Mr 20 per cent" from his time managing Michael Schumacher. In many fields, especially in pop music, managers frequently take 50% of the take before expenses have been paid. I would not expect that F1 drivers would agree to such punitive terms but would not be at all surprised if 20% were the norm.
 
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