EL_NANDO said:
Fair enough. But only if we can wheel out your prediction of an Alonso win "just after mid-season" should it not happen.
I'm not predicting anything, its a mugs game. You always end up wrong at some point.
Fernando Alonso - 2010 World Champion
- Thread starter EL_NANDO
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Fair enough. But only if we can wheel out your prediction of an Alonso win "just after mid-season" should it not happen.
I'm not predicting anything, its a mugs game. You always end up wrong at some point.
Ummm....
I think the point raised was that Alonso would be world champion just after mid-season...
OK, let's try maths, let's assume that Donnington aka Silverstone stays on the calendar. Therefore for Alonso to raise the trophy just after mis-season., let's allow you a race leeway, so after the German GP, race 11, Alonso will have at least 80 points leeway over his team mate.
Obviously we could bring other teams/drivers into the equation, but that would be unfair to El_Nando's assumptions. Let's assume, to assist the gentleman's assumtions that Ferrari is the best car on the grid, by far.
So the assumption is that by race 11 Alonso will have an 80 point lead over Massa and no other car will be in contention. Therefore, to extrapolate further, in the first 11 races Alonso will be on the podium in every race, and Massa will barely score a point, assuming they both have the best cars on the grid.
Um, IN YOUR DREAMS!
If Alonso could soundly beat any other driver on the grid, he's never going to beat one of the top five F1 drivers (assuming the same car) in half a season.
Sorry to rain on your parade, but you started the dance. I might believe Alonso is the better driver, however the proposition has too many holes in it to be called a colander.
EL_NANDO said:Use this thread to discuss legendary Fernando's MARCH to become a triple WDC. All the way from car development from him lifting the trophy just after mid season.
All views welcome.
I think the point raised was that Alonso would be world champion just after mid-season...
OK, let's try maths, let's assume that Donnington aka Silverstone stays on the calendar. Therefore for Alonso to raise the trophy just after mis-season., let's allow you a race leeway, so after the German GP, race 11, Alonso will have at least 80 points leeway over his team mate.
Obviously we could bring other teams/drivers into the equation, but that would be unfair to El_Nando's assumptions. Let's assume, to assist the gentleman's assumtions that Ferrari is the best car on the grid, by far.
So the assumption is that by race 11 Alonso will have an 80 point lead over Massa and no other car will be in contention. Therefore, to extrapolate further, in the first 11 races Alonso will be on the podium in every race, and Massa will barely score a point, assuming they both have the best cars on the grid.
Um, IN YOUR DREAMS!
If Alonso could soundly beat any other driver on the grid, he's never going to beat one of the top five F1 drivers (assuming the same car) in half a season.
Sorry to rain on your parade, but you started the dance. I might believe Alonso is the better driver, however the proposition has too many holes in it to be called a colander.
In 2004, Michael Schumacher had 120 points after 13 races. He was not World Champion at this point, because Barrichello had 82 in the sister Ferrari. This was an 18 race season.
Simply, if the car is good enough for a driver to dominate to the level required for Alonso to be 80 points up on someone by the German GP, then his team-mate will be hence good enough to be within 40!
In 2005, it took Alonso to round 12/19 (more accurately 11/18) to reach 80 points total! Alonso had 87 points and Fisichella 30, so by round 12, with 7 left, he had a 57 point lead over Fisichella. Kimi Raikkonen, Juan Montoya, Michael Schumacher, Rubens Barrichello and Jarno Trulli all headed Fisi at this point.
In 2006, in a more dominant Renault, by race 10, Alonso had 88 points. Fisichella had 43. This is with 8 left. Michael Schumacher was 2nd in the Championship at this point with Fisi third. To sum up, he had a 45 point lead over his team-mate with 8 left.
Is Felipe Massa a better driver than Giancarlo Fisichella? OK, lets compare Ferrari times in the F60. In 9 races, Massa scored 22 points. This is at an average of 22/9??2.4. At this point Kimi Räikkönen had scored 10 points at an average of 10/9?1.1. Fisi meanwhile has raced 4 times for Ferrari scoring a grand total of 0 at an average of 0 per race. Kimi Räikkönen at this point had scored 14 from the 4 races at an average of 3.5! So it appears Massa is a better driver.
So Alonso may beat Massa by just after mid-season. If Massa is again injured. However, someone will be within the required 80 points.
Think yourself proven wrong.
Simply, if the car is good enough for a driver to dominate to the level required for Alonso to be 80 points up on someone by the German GP, then his team-mate will be hence good enough to be within 40!
In 2005, it took Alonso to round 12/19 (more accurately 11/18) to reach 80 points total! Alonso had 87 points and Fisichella 30, so by round 12, with 7 left, he had a 57 point lead over Fisichella. Kimi Raikkonen, Juan Montoya, Michael Schumacher, Rubens Barrichello and Jarno Trulli all headed Fisi at this point.
In 2006, in a more dominant Renault, by race 10, Alonso had 88 points. Fisichella had 43. This is with 8 left. Michael Schumacher was 2nd in the Championship at this point with Fisi third. To sum up, he had a 45 point lead over his team-mate with 8 left.
Is Felipe Massa a better driver than Giancarlo Fisichella? OK, lets compare Ferrari times in the F60. In 9 races, Massa scored 22 points. This is at an average of 22/9??2.4. At this point Kimi Räikkönen had scored 10 points at an average of 10/9?1.1. Fisi meanwhile has raced 4 times for Ferrari scoring a grand total of 0 at an average of 0 per race. Kimi Räikkönen at this point had scored 14 from the 4 races at an average of 3.5! So it appears Massa is a better driver.
So Alonso may beat Massa by just after mid-season. If Massa is again injured. However, someone will be within the required 80 points.
Think yourself proven wrong.
rufus_mcdufus
Champion Elect
Massa's head injury will be an unknown for next year. I really hope he can compete at the same level as he did (or better) but there is a possibility he won't be as good.
Also Ferrari's lack of testing baffles me completely. They really seem to be shooting themselves in the foot with this for next year. It was rather cynically suggested that they stopped testing after Massa was out for the rest of the season - basically nobbling Kimi's chances of doing well.
So while Fernando will be the new boy and will have the optimism, it's not clear-cut to me that his car will be that competitive.
Also Ferrari's lack of testing baffles me completely. They really seem to be shooting themselves in the foot with this for next year. It was rather cynically suggested that they stopped testing after Massa was out for the rest of the season - basically nobbling Kimi's chances of doing well.
So while Fernando will be the new boy and will have the optimism, it's not clear-cut to me that his car will be that competitive.
Bellabella
Rookie
It would be a brave man/woman indeed who predicts the WDC in 2010! As always I will be rooting for Fernando and hopeful of his success. I also have a soft spot for Felipe, after his disappointment last year!
Prediction: Look for Alonso to dominate 2010
Hi, long time no speak.
Yes, thats right, he is the best of the current grid. And with his car development skills with a motivated team (unlike Renault who were not interested in racing), there is little doubt he will win the championship by around 30-40 points, maybe more. So my prediction is this...
FERNANDO CAMPEON DEL MUNDO 2010.
Discuss. Pole Vault. Javelin.
PS. I may make a comeback to 606 sometime soon, but the mods refuse to unban my original account. I still read 606 regularly and see my name mentioned in many "legendary WUM" threads so give the word EL_NANDO has not given up the fight and will return one day!
Unlike many posters, I will not tarnish my 606 reputation my returning with multiple Id's, I will only return with the original account.
Hi, long time no speak.
Yes, thats right, he is the best of the current grid. And with his car development skills with a motivated team (unlike Renault who were not interested in racing), there is little doubt he will win the championship by around 30-40 points, maybe more. So my prediction is this...
FERNANDO CAMPEON DEL MUNDO 2010.
Discuss. Pole Vault. Javelin.
PS. I may make a comeback to 606 sometime soon, but the mods refuse to unban my original account. I still read 606 regularly and see my name mentioned in many "legendary WUM" threads so give the word EL_NANDO has not given up the fight and will return one day!
Unlike many posters, I will not tarnish my 606 reputation my returning with multiple Id's, I will only return with the original account.
He'll have a tough task with Massa being his team mate. Plus I don't think Ferrari will ever get to the level they were under Schumacher, Brawn, Todt etc. Having said that the form, shown by his incredible last half of the 2009, of Lewis Hamilton was enough to make me think that he has become a much better driver, and with Jenson as his team mate next year, that will make him push even harder to the 2010 World Championship.
Looking at the Odds for next season (at William Hill) they make Lewis favourite at 9/4.
The odds so far look like this.
Lewis 9/4
Alonso 7/2
Button 11/2
Vettel 11/2
Massa 7/1
Now looking at that I think Massa is worth a punt.
Also if Schuey returns WH have him at 8/1.
The odds so far look like this.
Lewis 9/4
Alonso 7/2
Button 11/2
Vettel 11/2
Massa 7/1
Now looking at that I think Massa is worth a punt.
Also if Schuey returns WH have him at 8/1.
Fellow Clippers, If I could just go briefly.
At this time of year it's worth repeating the message never drink and drive. It's not worth it.
On behalf of the CTA moderation team (ok that's just me) have a very, very merry Xmas.
CaT
At this time of year it's worth repeating the message never drink and drive. It's not worth it.
On behalf of the CTA moderation team (ok that's just me) have a very, very merry Xmas.
CaT
EL_NANDO said:
OK, you put a grand on Alonso, and I'll give you a quid if he wins! I hope you open a bookmakers mate, because I think I'd have a piece of some of them odds!
EL_NANDO said:
Anyone who put a quid on Vettel, please collect your 'realistic' money from EL_NANDO
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