CTA Race of the Year 2013
- Thread starter sushifiesta
- Start date
Raikkonen&Redbull=PartyTime
Rookie
Yes, I see your point about highlighting peoples preferences. However, I'm not concerned with people not liking the analysis, I simply think there are better ways of working out which race was the highest rated, and actually understanding what 'highest rated' might mean. There are ways and means of not publishing specifics while at the same time expressing preferences too.
For me, calculating the highest rated race as a raw average is a bit naive. Apart from the limitations of the average statistic itself, an average of 8.7 may or may not be statistically significantly different from an average of 8.9. It could be they are statistically indistinguishable from each other.
Furthermore, each average cannot be measured as a like for like comparison because the composition of the average was variable. The sample size for each race poll was not the same, the people who were drawn in each sample was not the same, so the process is prone to self-selection bias.
I can't say this categorically without having evidence to support it, but my hypothesis is that the best race is largely a function of the optimal ordering of the grid that maximises ClipTheApex's collective driver utility.
In watered down terms, if 30 people like Lewis, 20 people like Kimi, 15 like Alonso, and 10 like Vettel, and assuming they like them exclusively with no other secondary preferences, then it would be the case that a race order of Lewis winning would prove to be the most popular race. Using the same analogy, if secondary preferences were Kimi @ 35, Vettel @ 20, Alonso @ 10, Hamilton @ 10, then a race ordering of Lewis, Kimi might generate more popularity than a race ordering of Lewis, Vettel.
So, for me the best race would be one that garnered the highest proportion of rating that was not generated by driver preference. Granted, a lot of the enjoyment of any race is generated by observing your chosen driver win or do well, but a truly great race should transcend that and be considered great irrespective of who won.
However, my points are moot if we do not have the granular data. Also, the type of analysis I am referring to would require more data than presently has been captured, and would be best conducted retrospectively so as to not influence the voting mechanism for the remaining races in any way.
For me, calculating the highest rated race as a raw average is a bit naive. Apart from the limitations of the average statistic itself, an average of 8.7 may or may not be statistically significantly different from an average of 8.9. It could be they are statistically indistinguishable from each other.
Furthermore, each average cannot be measured as a like for like comparison because the composition of the average was variable. The sample size for each race poll was not the same, the people who were drawn in each sample was not the same, so the process is prone to self-selection bias.
I can't say this categorically without having evidence to support it, but my hypothesis is that the best race is largely a function of the optimal ordering of the grid that maximises ClipTheApex's collective driver utility.
In watered down terms, if 30 people like Lewis, 20 people like Kimi, 15 like Alonso, and 10 like Vettel, and assuming they like them exclusively with no other secondary preferences, then it would be the case that a race order of Lewis winning would prove to be the most popular race. Using the same analogy, if secondary preferences were Kimi @ 35, Vettel @ 20, Alonso @ 10, Hamilton @ 10, then a race ordering of Lewis, Kimi might generate more popularity than a race ordering of Lewis, Vettel.
So, for me the best race would be one that garnered the highest proportion of rating that was not generated by driver preference. Granted, a lot of the enjoyment of any race is generated by observing your chosen driver win or do well, but a truly great race should transcend that and be considered great irrespective of who won.
However, my points are moot if we do not have the granular data. Also, the type of analysis I am referring to would require more data than presently has been captured, and would be best conducted retrospectively so as to not influence the voting mechanism for the remaining races in any way.
I've always said that the results of the polls are the subjective views of the CTA members and personally I don't see anything wrong with that.
To get the data you want the easiest way would probably be to create something like a thread in which people rank the current drivers in order of preference from top to bottom. Then you can just assume the general results from that can be applied to all the race polls irrespective of whether the same people have voted in them. Some people also have information on their user profiles.
What you're suggesting is an interesting idea but I think you'll struggle to define what proportion of a rating is coming from driver favouritism for each person. I think many people on CTA don't have a strong favourite, but some that do will give a race in which their driver does well a much higher score whereas others won't. In this respect maybe the poll I suggested above isn't enough and you'd really need to know each individual vote like you wanted, but I think trying to extract trends from this in an effective way would be a huge job that requires more data than CTA can provide. ~50 votes per race really isn't that much.
As for using a simple average, I don't really see an alternative. To start with I excluded some of the more extreme votes in an attempt to reduce bias but I quickly decided that this wasn't achieving what I wanted and was annoying the members whos votes didn't count. The robust statistic is the median, but you can't use this by itself to decide the winner as so many races would be tied. I could use the median first and then the mean as a tiebreak but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't change the current order (although I haven't checked). The deviation numbers give an indication of how close to the mean/median the votes were, so can be used to indicate how representative the mean/median are.
Having said all that, if you do try something I'd love to see what comes out of it!
To get the data you want the easiest way would probably be to create something like a thread in which people rank the current drivers in order of preference from top to bottom. Then you can just assume the general results from that can be applied to all the race polls irrespective of whether the same people have voted in them. Some people also have information on their user profiles.
What you're suggesting is an interesting idea but I think you'll struggle to define what proportion of a rating is coming from driver favouritism for each person. I think many people on CTA don't have a strong favourite, but some that do will give a race in which their driver does well a much higher score whereas others won't. In this respect maybe the poll I suggested above isn't enough and you'd really need to know each individual vote like you wanted, but I think trying to extract trends from this in an effective way would be a huge job that requires more data than CTA can provide. ~50 votes per race really isn't that much.
As for using a simple average, I don't really see an alternative. To start with I excluded some of the more extreme votes in an attempt to reduce bias but I quickly decided that this wasn't achieving what I wanted and was annoying the members whos votes didn't count. The robust statistic is the median, but you can't use this by itself to decide the winner as so many races would be tied. I could use the median first and then the mean as a tiebreak but I'm pretty sure it wouldn't change the current order (although I haven't checked). The deviation numbers give an indication of how close to the mean/median the votes were, so can be used to indicate how representative the mean/median are.
Having said all that, if you do try something I'd love to see what comes out of it!
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I always rate the races higher if I've been there. Is that any help? 
Oh dear oh dear, a lot of eating of words is going to have to be done after this season because yet again a fan favourite has been a complete flop. Belgium just about scrapes ahead of Spain to avoid being rated the worst race so far but that's it, it's below Monaco and the similarly badly rated fan favourite Montreal. The main contributors to the bad score seemed to be easy DRS overtakes and a Vettel victory that was settled about 20 seconds in to the race. There was a fairly large spread of scores, but by no means the biggest that we've seen. People just generally didn't like this race and expectations let us down again.
Updated table:
On to Monza! Now the summer break is behind us the polls are going to be coming thick and fast so keep your voting fingers at the ready!
Updated table:
On to Monza! Now the summer break is behind us the polls are going to be coming thick and fast so keep your voting fingers at the ready!
Want mine in advance, sushifiesta?
Fenderman
Rooters Reporter
Something that stood out for me was the absolutely dire TV coverage of the Spa race. It reminded me of the old days when the producers did not have the imagination to break away from the leading group or driver (or worse their favourite driver) to catch action further down the field. There must have been a lot going on but we didn't see it and anything we did see was usually in a replay.
Josephiah
Podium Finisher
Heh, "there was a robbery from Dixons at the mall today in which one assailant made off with pounds-worth of goods; police are looking for a man with a fuzzy head".
I really liked the thermal camera, but I agree that the director would have been unlikely to resist using it on every second shot. It's an excellent addition for the technical parts of the show (e.g. during the build up, certain replays, etc) but doesn't add anything during the race.
I really liked the thermal camera, but I agree that the director would have been unlikely to resist using it on every second shot. It's an excellent addition for the technical parts of the show (e.g. during the build up, certain replays, etc) but doesn't add anything during the race.
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Well either we're a miserable lot or F1 has been in a miserable state of late because Italy makes it two races in a row with scores barely making it about 5/10 and it also ties with Germany as the race with the least number of votes. For me I think it was an average race, not a terrible one, we had some overtaking. However, Vettel yet again ran away with it and extended his race and for various reasons Hamilton and Raikkonen weren't able to challenge him or get anywhere near to the podium. I think that explains the terrible score, although Italy does end up ahead of Belgium and Spain at least. In terms of general agreement about the score Italy was fairly average, nothing particularly controversial happened to create debate.
Updated table:
Singapore next then. Can our passion for F1 return?
Updated table:
Singapore next then. Can our passion for F1 return?
sushifiesta - Well, we're still watching it...
Fenderman
Rooters Reporter
I can explain my low ratings. There's just not much technological interest at the moment. There's a bit of tech' interest to come in 2014 but without something dramatically new and innovative I'm afraid that F1 is losing at least 50 per cent of the reason I've followed it for so long.
SINGAPORE RESULTS
So, as Vettel gets further and further ahead the scores keep going down and he was so ridiculously dominant at Singapore that all the rest might as well have been in a different race series. The number of voters is decreasing as well. The excitement that emerged after the safety car wasn't enough to save this race and it comes in just ahead of Spain as the second lowest scored race so far.
Korea next and a bit of extreme weather in the neighbourhood might spice things up.
So, as Vettel gets further and further ahead the scores keep going down and he was so ridiculously dominant at Singapore that all the rest might as well have been in a different race series. The number of voters is decreasing as well. The excitement that emerged after the safety car wasn't enough to save this race and it comes in just ahead of Spain as the second lowest scored race so far.
Korea next and a bit of extreme weather in the neighbourhood might spice things up.
Just a random observation - good races and bad races seem to have come clumped in groups of 3 or 4 so far.
Korea should score higher surely!
Anyone notice that this year the circuits we all love have produced races the general opinion of is were awful whilst the tracks people say we could do without are getting the good ratings?
I mean Bahrain is universally despised and Korea looks like it'll score high and most people (including me) say its a pointless grand prix. Hungary divides opinion but has a big fan section that hate the place and want it out too!
Spain bucks the trend of course.
Maybe it has something to do with expectations? Don't know.
Anyway at this rate India and Abu Dhabi are going to be classics whilst Japan and Brazil are going to suck big time.
I mean Bahrain is universally despised and Korea looks like it'll score high and most people (including me) say its a pointless grand prix. Hungary divides opinion but has a big fan section that hate the place and want it out too!
Spain bucks the trend of course.
Maybe it has something to do with expectations? Don't know.
Anyway at this rate India and Abu Dhabi are going to be classics whilst Japan and Brazil are going to suck big time.
RasputinLives - Is Bahrain despised because it's a bad circuit? We could certainly do without!
Fenderman
Rooters Reporter
Having watched Korea again I have decided that I enjoyed it for the right reasons. Vettel had to work harder this time to manage that right front tyre (like everyone else) whilst responding to the potential threats from Lotus, so respect. It was above my expectations so that helped. But the main reason I enjoyed it was because of the quality dog-fighting and the drama from the incidents.
Some people seem to worry about enjoying races with crashes and indeed shy away from admitting to themselves, let alone others. that they get a buzz out of seeing crashes and cars on fire. Personally, I feel the shock and dismay from momentarily terrifying incidents is an important part of what makes the sport interesting and exciting. When one sees the brilliant driving as the guys battle wheel to wheel it is knowing what the consequences of a mistake may be that fills one with awe.
Which brings me back to the reason that was a good race to me. Despite the dreaded DRS easy passes that did happen most of the real dog fighting was in the wiggly bits. Watching Alonso, Hamilton and Hulkenberg battle for half the race and right up to the last corner was a pleasure. Meanwhile, Webber's progress (until his wipeout) and that of Raikkonen was also quite enthralling.
I must add a caveat though. The 2nd DRS zone effectively nullified what may have been a Hamilton on Grosjean battle as I think Hulkenberg would have been left behind had Lewis's pass been made to stick. It would have been interesting to see if the "new" Rogro could withstand the pressure the same that Nico was subjected to. But, hey, maybe we will see that in Suzuka or Brazil perhaps.
So what if Vettel took it again without a full-on battle up front? There are only 22 blokes in the elite seats of F1 driving their nuts off to show us why they deserve to be in that club. Eleven constructors are working their butts off to do likewise. So, watching them go at it with their successes and failures, ups and downs, is what it is all about. Fixation with just a couple of guys at the front is as boring as those all too frequently processional races of the past. It's also as boring as some of the races we've had at our favourite tracks this season where the DRS and stupidly in-durable tyres devalued the spectacle.
So if Korea ranks surprisingly high, so be it. The fact ism from an armchair punter point of view, it's not too bad a circuit. I don;t need the grandstands to be full because I'm watching the racing not the folk's who can afford to be there. I also don't care what country it's in, so long as their people are treated with respect by their rulers - which is why Bahrain is on my personal hated tracks list along with a couple of others that could do with some evolution.
So, well done Korea. Nice surprise. Shame about the marshaling*
*Footnote: Charlie should have been quicker off the mark the moment those flames licked at Webbers' butt.
Some people seem to worry about enjoying races with crashes and indeed shy away from admitting to themselves, let alone others. that they get a buzz out of seeing crashes and cars on fire. Personally, I feel the shock and dismay from momentarily terrifying incidents is an important part of what makes the sport interesting and exciting. When one sees the brilliant driving as the guys battle wheel to wheel it is knowing what the consequences of a mistake may be that fills one with awe.
Which brings me back to the reason that was a good race to me. Despite the dreaded DRS easy passes that did happen most of the real dog fighting was in the wiggly bits. Watching Alonso, Hamilton and Hulkenberg battle for half the race and right up to the last corner was a pleasure. Meanwhile, Webber's progress (until his wipeout) and that of Raikkonen was also quite enthralling.
I must add a caveat though. The 2nd DRS zone effectively nullified what may have been a Hamilton on Grosjean battle as I think Hulkenberg would have been left behind had Lewis's pass been made to stick. It would have been interesting to see if the "new" Rogro could withstand the pressure the same that Nico was subjected to. But, hey, maybe we will see that in Suzuka or Brazil perhaps.
So what if Vettel took it again without a full-on battle up front? There are only 22 blokes in the elite seats of F1 driving their nuts off to show us why they deserve to be in that club. Eleven constructors are working their butts off to do likewise. So, watching them go at it with their successes and failures, ups and downs, is what it is all about. Fixation with just a couple of guys at the front is as boring as those all too frequently processional races of the past. It's also as boring as some of the races we've had at our favourite tracks this season where the DRS and stupidly in-durable tyres devalued the spectacle.
So if Korea ranks surprisingly high, so be it. The fact ism from an armchair punter point of view, it's not too bad a circuit. I don;t need the grandstands to be full because I'm watching the racing not the folk's who can afford to be there. I also don't care what country it's in, so long as their people are treated with respect by their rulers - which is why Bahrain is on my personal hated tracks list along with a couple of others that could do with some evolution.
So, well done Korea. Nice surprise. Shame about the marshaling*
*Footnote: Charlie should have been quicker off the mark the moment those flames licked at Webbers' butt.
Hulkenburg was back past Hamilton by the start of the 2nd DRS zone.
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