Can Jenson Button Become WDC?

[Ninad13]

Here is some data that I have collected.

Season	World Champion		Won 1st Race

1990	Ayrton Senna		Ayrton Senna

1991	Ayrton Senna		Ayrton Senna

1992	Nigel Mansell		Nigel Mansell

1993	Alain Prost		Alain Prost

1994	Michael Schumacher	Michael Schumacher

1995	Michael Schumacher	Michael Schumacher

1996	Damon Hill		Damon Hill

1997	Jacques Villeneuve	David Coulthard*

1998	Mika Häkkinen		Mika Häkkinen

1999	Mika Häkkinen		Eddie Irvine*

2000	Michael Schumacher	Michael Schumacher

2001	Michael Schumacher	Michael Schumacher

2002	Michael Schumacher	Michael Schumacher

2003	Michael Schumacher	David Coulthard*

2004	Michael Schumacher	Michael Schumacher

2005	Fernando Alonso		Giancarlo Fisichella*

2006	Fernando Alonso		Fernando Alonso

2007	Kimi Räikkönen		Kimi Räikkönen

2008	Lewis Hamilton		Lewis Hamilton

2009	?????????		Jenson Button

On 15 out of last 19 occasions driver who won 1st race has won the WDC that year.
Can Jenson Button become WDC this year??
Odds are in his favour.

Plus Jenson Button is smooth and quick driver, and I personally believe he can win.........

 

[Brogan]

Interesting stat's there Ninad.

There's no denying that currently Brawn have an advantage over the rest of the field but I expect that will be drastically reduced once the other teams deploy the new split-level diffusers.
Assuming of course they're not made illegal.

Either way though, the performance differential will reduce over the next few races and if the diffuser is made illegal then we could even see Brawn dropping right back if they don't have a suitable alternative design.

Just a shame that it's going to be several weeks before we know the outcome of the appeal.

 

[Croydon Bob]

Yes, he COULD win. I doubt that the Brawn will have the reliability and pace through to the end of the season. It's possible and I'd like to see it though...

If we're going to play with statistics then I'll point out that three of the last four times a driver won the first race and then failed to win the WDC, the driver was British. Doesn't that turn the odds against Button again?

 

[teabagyokel]

Ninad, the table says you don't know who has won the Grand Prix but you do know JB will be World Champion! Sorry!

If you consider the special conditions of Oz2005 (Qualifying 1 lap + rain storm + Fisi in dry), Oz2003 (McLaren's pitlane tactical stunt as quali-fuel was just introduced), Oz1999 (13 retirements and a no-start) and Oz1997(Villenueve, Irvine & Herbert crashing)...

Didn't see too many special circumstances this year, unless Diffusergate gets really kicking!

 

[Brogan]

Ninad, the table says you don't know who has won the Grand Prix but you do know JB will be World Champion! Sorry!

Good spot!
I've edited the table

 

[Ninad13]

Sorry got it wrong there........ I did not observe...........
Rubens had broken his diffuser at start but stilll had good pace. No diffuser will not be a big disadvantage for them............. I think..............

 

[RickD]

Maybe, it depends what part of the diffuser was broken on RBs car and how much of an affect that had on the overall handling.

I don't want to say it, but I hope he can do it..

 

[McZiderRed]

I know this Guardian article, Brawn warn they can go even faster, is dated prior to today's qualifying and I'm not sure if it's been brought up elsewhere, but it's still interesting. Is it right, that they have been sandbagging - they have performance to spare?

"I think, basically, that if someone is two-tenths off us they can feasibly win the race but, if we're half a second in front, which is probably where we are at the moment, although we don't necessarily look like that, it is just foolish to just annihilate people all the time," he said. "I think we have a little bit in the bag. We've got good stuff coming and I think we have reason to be confident."

Would they be able to fend off the other teams without giving away their true pace? Assuming the FIA hearing doesn't go against them, it appears that all the other teams have quite a bit of catching up to do.*

*it will be interesting to see how the race goes tomorrow, with Toyota (another diffusnic) alongside button...

 

[Brogan]

Well Toyota are pretty close to them and Jenson only just managed to grab pole on his last lap today.

Personally I don't think any driver is capable of "sandbagging" a few tenths during a lap, it's just too small a time scale to be able to judge.
I am under no illusions that Jenson had to drive a perfect lap with no holding back today to keep Trulli in P2.

 

[buxted-plump]

i dont know if jenson will win wdc but by god i wish i'd put £20 on him to win it last december, i wonder what the odds were then? 2000-1? higher?

 

[bogaTYR]

not likely.

first of all the Brawn is seriously untested. never been in the wet for instance and they have been suffering issues already cos of lack of testing. like this gear issue which seems to hunt them. so they are vulnerable there.

second, they have the resources of ferrari and macca combined versus them. those teams will improve and if they get the new diffuser then one can only expect those teams to be in front again. its not a matter if Bawn will be equaled, but a matter of when.

there seem to be too many 'ifs'. sure its a possibility, but to me its unlikely. cos for jense to become WDC he needs to score enough points before the other teams catch up or the diffuser is declared legal, preferably in dry races only and without any other problems. if the diffuser is declared illegal then its end of game for him as far as the WDC is concerned.

right now, but this is only a very first indication, i think vettel stand a much better chance then button. toyota and williams look pretty much on the spot too but they use this diffuser so i am careful here. vettel doesn't have the diffuser nor KERS and still he is up front. and if vettel gets this diffuser then i think he will be pretty much ahead. until the big boys get there too of course.

my money would be on vettel as WDC, button 2nd and then ferrari. i think macca have more to do then ferrari.

 

[RickD]

I'm not so sure, I think Jense is driving beautifully at the moment, but Trulli was as usual a one lap specialist, Glock was only up there due to his tyre choice and Heidfeld because he had only stopped once. Ferraris tactical decisions at the moment seem to be coming from a novice and don't forget that Ross basically trained them, so knows their limitations.

Also Ferrari & Mclaren can't spend their way out of trouble in the same way they could last year as they can't test anything until the Friday practices, which throws in another element. Brawn was obviously sand bagging in practice and just trying out fuel runs. The speed difference in the rain was massive and the Brawn looked glued to the road and no spinning for them (unlike most of the rest of the field), probably due to their drivers and the balance of the car (did you se how little work was put into the qualifying lap by Jense?).

 

[Bellabella]

CB You are such a pessimist!

Yes, he COULD win. I doubt that the Brawn will have the reliability and pace through to the end of the season. It's possible and I'd like to see it though...

If we're going to play with statistics then I'll point out that three of the last four times a driver won the first race and then failed to win the WDC, the driver was British. Doesn't that turn the odds against Button again?