Weblonsilton vs. Vettel

[Stevi555]

Il leone
Hi, and yeah good analysis. Couldn't have put it better. It's a difficult season ahead to try and reel in the points deficit Vettel has on the others and realistically it's an uphill climb but yeah, a couple of DNF's for Sebastian could change the tide. And Lewis and Fernando are always a threat in waiting to punish him in the off chance that it happens. Still got a ways to go yet in the championship and we know anything can happen.
All in all, an exciting season and looking forward to this weekend..

Never say never huh..

 

[TN23]

The championship is probably over unfortunately- and even more unfortunately the two biggest combeacks I can remember (Hunt on Lauda, 1976 and almost Hill on Schumacher, 1994) had strange circumstances surrounding them which are unlikely to turn up again.

Hey, conspiracy theorists- isn't there a twenty seven button sequence Vettel presses at the start of the race to activate traction control... He must have forgotten this weekend...

 

[RickD]

Realistically Vettel needs to drop out of two races and then have some pretty awful races to give others a chance
With Spa and Monza coming up it should suit Mclaren with long straights

Well, he likes taking out the driver in front of him when at Spa, so quite possible for him to have a DNF there (just hope it's not Button this time)..

 

[Josh]

Don't get your hopes up, he only crashed into someone last year.

Unless Vettel gets all the bad luck or breaks something or suddenly forgets how to drive, he will win the WC. He's just too far ahead.

 

[Incubus]

There is also the fact that with this year's rev limitations rules F1 engines remain well within their maximum potential. So engine failures are extremely unlikely this year for everybody.
One less thing for Vettel's rivals to hope for.

 

[RayInTorontoCanada]

This is my first post in this thread.

The flaws are two fold.

1) Webber won't be able to win the title (without a few DNF's from Vettel). The main reason is that his car will either suffer or gain the same way as Vettel's car. Webber suddenly won't find that much time that he'll take chunks out of Vettel's lead consistently.

2) Either Alonso or Hamilton will need to win the vast majority of races. "Sharing" won't help either.

Beyond these two flaws is an Ace up Vettel's sleeve: If another team's driver gets too close, Webber will be under orders...and he won't be able to complain because that's the fairest thing to do to maintain the title within the team.

Lastly, Hamilton can only realistically count on McLaren to ensure Button's help.

 

[sushifiesta]

I've just had a look at the results from 2009 and the similarity betwee the first ten races that year and the first ten races this year are remarkable when you compare race wins:

2009:
Button - 6 wins
Vettel - 2 wins
Webber - 1 win
Hamilton - 1 win

2011:
Vettel - 6 wins
Hamilton - 2 wins
Alonso - 1 win
Button - 1 win

Button failed to win any more races that season, with the wins at the last 7 races being shared as follows:

Barrichello - 2 wins
Vettel - 2 wins
Raikkonen - 1 win
Hamilton - 1 win
Webber - 1 win

Despite the seven wins being shared between five drivers Vettel ended up 11pts behind Button - just over one race win in the old points system. There are two more races in this years calendar, and if there had been two more races in 2009 it could have been very close indeed.

The big difference is that Brawn didn't have the money to continue developing their car as fast as their rivals during the season, which won't be the case for Red Bull this year, but perahps this gives some hope of a competitive championship.

 

[MCLS]

For some reason it feels different than 2009, I'm not sure why though... Maybe because of the new points system or something

 

[RayInTorontoCanada]

There are other big differences:

One ... Button began bottling it and his teammate took the team's two wins. Needless to say, Vettel's already a WDC so it's hard to see him 'bottling' it like Button did.

Barrichello scored 37 points v Button's 27 points after Germany...so Button did 'bottle' it.

Two ... Brawn never applied Team Orders (they were illegal, Barrichello took a win from Button in Italy) and I think RBR will apply team orders quicker than people think if Alonso or Hamilton get closer. They won't apply team orders if only Webber gets closer...but they will apply orders if either Alonso or Hamilton along with Webber get closer.

Three ... Brawn - as mentioned - didn't have the funds to keep the hammer down on development. Red Bull with Adrian Newey's team are a different kettel of fish.

Four ... Brawns got over-hauled by more than 2 teams (RBR, McLaren, Toyota, BMW and possibly Raikkonen in the Ferrari and Force India at the fast circuits)...so you often found Button not in the Top 4 on the grid...It's hard, this year, to see Vettel qualifying as far down the grid as Button started to do. Look here:

Button's grid positions (final 8 races (after Germany)):

8
5
14
6
11
10
14
5

Vettel's unlikely to have his RBR over-hauled to such an extent that he starts his Grand Prix races that poorly down the grid.

 

[MCLS]

Also, Brawn never applied Team Orders.

They did favour Button over Barrichello though.

 

[Josh]

I agree with the rest of your points, but the difference between last year and this year is that Vettel did not lead the championship until Abu Dhabi.
Leading a championship and and hunting for the lead in the championship are two entirely different kinds of pressure. We do not know how Vettel will react to it.

 

[Slyboogy]

They did favour Button over Barrichello though.

F1 racing did say that for the first few races Barrichello didn't have the proper car that button had due to funds.

 

[RayInTorontoCanada]

They did favour Button over Barrichello though.

Sure but they didn't employ team orders at the Italian Grand Prix at Monza where Barrichello won from Button.

As per this:

F1 racing did say that for the first few races Barrichello didn't have the proper car that button had due to funds.

Barrichello got the kind of brake material he wanted only mid season. Once his brake material was changed, he was happier with the car.

Bottom line is that - with Team Orders being legal again - I think you'll see Red Bull react very quickly and even mercilessly IF Alonso/Hamilton start to close in too quickly for their comfort.

 

[RayInTorontoCanada]

I agree with the rest of your points, but ...
Leading a championship and and hunting for the lead in the championship are two entirely different kinds of pressure.

Yes...but the other points I made in that post are way too compelling. We don't know if Vettel will or won't react differently to the two types of pressure...but you can certainly count on him having a car that won't be as bad as what Button was using to qualify so horribly in the final 8 races of 2009

 

[sushifiesta]

I agree it's ridiculously unlikely, but it is not so far-fetched as it might look. Also, for a point of comparison, Barrichello's grid slots in the last seven races were 3,4,5,9,6,1,4 which apart from the 9th at Singapore are all in the top 6 so maybe Button's car wasn't so bad.

 

[Slyboogy]

Buttons car wasn't bad a you have said by there where a few drivers out performing their cars at that time most notably Kimi Raikkonen and Lewis Hamilton, with a Toyota and a BMW in the mix a fair few times, that's why his grid positions where not on par with Barrichellos same with rac performance wise. Plus he's never been the best qualifier...

 

[RickD]

They did favour Button over Barrichello though.

Now, that is a reply I expect from someone who doesn't know a lot about F1, but not from you MCLS. The only reason Brawn favoured Button is due to his results and the fact that Ruebens couldn't keep up with him in the early part of the season. The Brawn had massive problems in colder or damp races also. In Malasia (I think), there were puddles collecting on the floor of the car and the team was suprised the car was still working.

Also, the Brawn had NO updates whatsoever until it came back to Europe and even then they lost out to the other teams due to budgets. They never did fix the issue that the car had in colder weather.

The only other updates on the car actually favoured Ruebens as they made the car more unstable.

The comparison to 2009 is a load of codswallop, especially when you take into account Red Bulls budget. I would still compare it more to 2004.

 

[F1ang-o]

Like your thinking!

But don't think that Jenson and Felipe would be into doing something like that.

WELL....Jenson put Lewis in the wall this year & Felipe spun Lewis at a race & put him to the back of the pack, a couple of years ago....so they've had some practice.

 

[MCLS]

Can we move on from the Button/Hamilton Canada thing please?

 

[RayInTorontoCanada]

I agree it's ridiculously unlikely, but it is not so far-fetched as it might look. Also, for a point of comparison, Barrichello's grid slots in the last seven races were 3,4,5,9,6,1,4 which apart from the 9th at Singapore are all in the top 6 so maybe Button's car wasn't so bad.

Which confirms my point number "one" in that post, i.e. Button had "bottled" it a fair amount. It also confirms that Barrichello was more happy with his new brake material.