Next debut Grand Prix winner

[Galahad]

In the 124 Grands Prix since the start of 2014, there have been four new Grand Prix winners (Ricciardo in 2014, Verstappen in 2016, Bottas in 2017 and Leclerc last year). Which of the current crop of drivers - if any - will be next to break their duck? And why do you think so?

 

[cider_and_toast]

There are some good drivers on that list but the opportunity for them to win is extremely limited. I've gone for Sainz not so much because I think he's the best driver in the group but the fact that the will be the most likely to be in a position to win races for Ferrari next year. I doubt very much that any of them will be in a position to win a race this season. The Mercs look unbeatable but, if they ever both have an issue, Verstsappen and Leclerc or Vettel will most likely be there to pick up the win.

 

[Il_leone]

The most likely team to do it as long as their car is not deemed illegal are the Racing Points .

If this was Monza - Lance Stroll would have been an outside bet given he seems to always go well on that track. If Perez is getting the boot then I think a first win for the team would be nice as well as make them regret getting Vettel

I think Albon needs to win to silence critics but he can't seem to have a clean race without issues and his race pace to Verstappen is still way off

Sainz - so I guess people are thinking it might be either the Mercs or Verstappen winning all the races this season then?

 

[F1Brits_90]

i think we are talking about 2021 because as i said (pessimistically) last week. i dont see where mercedes get beaten on merit. but you never know mercedes could have crash like in spain 2016 or both engine going boom like in austria 2018. that might just open up to perez who has a track record of being in the right place in the right time

 

[P1]

It's interesting. The 2 McLaren and 2 Racing Point drivers have all the votes so far. Which makes sense since those 2 teams are most likely to serve up a GP win (the other teams are unlikely to).

EXCEPT There is a Red Bull driver on the list. IT is amazing that Stroll is ahead of Albon in the voting right now. Thats a pretty sad indictment on Albon.

 

[Il_leone]

I just thought if Racing Point were 1-2 in the race with Stroll behind . Would team orders come into play and they ask Perez to move over to let Stroll win ?

 

[gethinceri]

It's got to be a Racing Point or Albon...
I don't think Albon is good enough to beat Verstrappen.
I think Il_leone has a good (Racing) point regarding team orders.

So, Stroll.

 

[Il_leone]

It's got to be a Racing Point or Albon...
I don't think Albon is good enough to beat Verstrappen.
I think Il_leone has a good (Racing) point regarding team orders.

So, Stroll.

Just to add more fuel to the fire. Would Perez give it up anyway given he might be leaving the team or be sacked ? Also I can't see Vettel doing it if he is Stroll's teammate next year ?

 

[Galahad]

I was sorely tempted to vote for None of the above, since I can't see a realistic scenario for any of them to win this season or next (given the carry-over technical regs).

However I have voted for Albon - he has the machinery, and Max has had the tendency to take front wings off etc. occasionally, so perhaps - combined with misfortune for both Mercedes - he could win without needing to be faster.

 

[Il_leone]

I was sorely tempted to vote for None of the above, since I can't see a realistic scenario for any of them to win this season or next (given the carry-over technical regs).

However I have voted for Albon - he has the machinery, and Max has had the tendency to take front wings off etc. occasionally, so perhaps - combined with misfortune for both Mercedes - he could win without needing to be faster.

Whilst I would like him to win he seems to get into good positions and then always the misfortune falls on him. Horner had just had to defend Albon because already rumours are flying around based on Red Bull's history if he does not improve he will be replaced. We know Horner's view adds little weight given what happened with Gasly last year

 

[The Artist.....]

I just thought if Racing Point were 1-2 in the race with Stroll behind . Would team orders come into play and they ask Perez to move over to let Stroll win ?

No, they'd both move over, and let the Mercedes win...

 

[Bill Boddy]

If Mercedes have more problems in a hot race with the gearbox Racing Point might just sneak a win : hopefully it would be Perez if only to see what would happen when it comes to deciding between which driver stays.

 

[Johnny Carwash]

It looks like nobody had any faith in Gasly being the next new winner.

 

[Il_leone]

Well the race was Stroll's for the taking

 

[F1Brits_90]

It looks like nobody had any faith in Gasly being the next new winner.

we arent very good at this & i think no one picked 17 races either for this season

 

[F1Brits_90]

interesting stats about debut wins

odd dejavu (thanks to crofty on commentary)
panis wins 1996 monaco gp. retired from the next race on opening lap
gasly wins 2020 italian gp, retired from the next race on opening lap

but it also goes deeper the last 6 maiden winners of an F1 GP bar leclerc have had dreadful weekends at the next race

Gasly wins, retires next race
Leclerc wins, wins next race
Bottas wins, retires next race
Verstappen wins, retires next race
Riccardio wins, 8th next race
Maldonado wins, retires next race

 

[P1]

got to remove gasly from poll now. i voted stroll over perez.

 

[The Pits]

interesting stats about debut wins

odd dejavu (thanks to crofty on commentary)
panis wins 1996 monaco gp. retired from the next race on opening lap
gasly wins 2020 italian gp, retired from the next race on opening lap

but it also goes deeper the last 6 maiden winners of an F1 GP bar leclerc have had dreadful weekends at the next race

Gasly wins, retires next race
Leclerc wins, wins next race
Bottas wins, retires next race
Verstappen wins, retires next race
Riccardio wins, 8th next race
Maldonado wins, retires next race

To be fair, in all of those Maldonado is a bit of an outlier, I seem to recall that he didnt finish another race that season after his win?

 

[F1Brits_90]

looking at his record The Pits he would only score points 3 times the rest of the season & didnt score for another 6 months Spain > Japan