I've been thinking more about the implications of the 100 kg/hr fuel flow restriction butting up against the 100-kilo petrol tank. So I ran the numbers on Monaco, which is the lowest petrol use circuit because it is both the shortest race distance (by ~45 km) and has the lowest top speeds.
At Monaco, cars spend ~42% of lap time at full throttle and ~12% under braking, leaving ~46% of each lap at partial throttle. For the sake of argument, I fixed partial throttle fuel flow at 1/3rd of the TR's maximum, which come to 0.556 kg/minute.
The winner of the 2012 Monaco GP's average lap time was 1:27.3, so I used that as my representative lap time.
Now we have 36.7 seconds at full throttle and 40.2 seconds at 1/3rd throttle, which come to 1.39 kilos of fuel per lap. Times 78 laps equals 108.4 kilos. Except they only will be allowed 100 kilos. And that ignores the fuel needed for formation lap and tech inspection, which isn't addressed in the 2014 TR currently available at FIA.org.
The fast circuits will be even worse. At race pace, petrol power only will get them through about 50 of Hockenheim's 67 laps.
So the CURSE v.2 obviously will be far more critical than 2013's CURSE v.1, a necessity for simply completing the race, much less winning it. But my question is whether it will be possible for anyone to implement a CURSE capable of delivering the full output allowed for in the 2014 TR. Or, more to the point, whether they would want to.
2014-spec CURSE v.2 is too dramatic an increase in thermal output from 2013, and CURSE v.1 cooling already is overtaxed as is. In fact, I'll wager the teams have a cost/benefit algorithm written for the CURSE v.1, which they use to estimate the increase in lap time due to overheating of CURSE versus the increase resulting from loss of grip due to reduced airflow available to the rear wing and/or diffuser.
Give precedence to cooling of the CURSE v.2 and your car has greater top speed. Give precedence to the downforce and your car has greater cornering speed. And I think the track record of Adrian Newey's designs has given us insight which tactic on balance produces lower lap times. In fact, Red Bull at one point were running something the press termed a mini-CURSE, which made no effort to take full advantage of the output allowable under the TR for CURSE v.1 in favour of packaging and downforce concerns.
It stands to reason they simply will tweak the current algorithm to determine the break-even point with CURSE v.2 and the 1.6L V-6T.
I also imagine tyres will be pivotal. If the disinte-Pirellis survive to 2014, I think that further reduces the teams' motivation to build a full-spec CURSE v.2. If the FIA sincerely want teams developing it to its fullest potential, they need to source a tyre that will make that extra power not only useable but also critical to victory.
On the other hand, if the disinte-Pirellis are back for 2014, I think we will see the pecking order largely unchanged, with familiar team and driver names always appearing at the top of the time sheet (and Vettel favoured to take his fifth consecutive WDC). But if they switch to proper racing tyres, there is such an enormous performance advantage to be had in full implementation of CURSE v.2 -- potentially as much as 22% of total available thrust -- the teams who find their way to the top of the time sheet will be those who best are able to strike a "golden mean" between generating cornering grip and cooling the CURSE v.2, and it won't much matter whose logo is on the side of the car or which driver's bum is in the seat.