Wish I could say but 1st free practice on Friday only feeds information to the teams as they're the only ones who know what they're doing in preparation for the 2nd session, which will be far more interesting. They all have to do qualifying runs in the 2nd session in case they have any significant issues that need attention. The 3rd session the following day doesn't leave them with enough time to make and test changes before qualifying which is why 2nd practice is always the most interesting. I'm only guessing, like everyone else, but I think Ferrari will surprise, at least in the hands of Alonso. With his ability to read a race, he might be a threat during the GP also. Otherwise, my money's on Button. Other than Schumacher they're the most experienced drivers in the field and I think experience will count for a lot this season.