F1 Shift.net
Points Scorer
I apologize in advance for the length of this post.
It's very clear the 2012 Formula 1 championship will be decided by consistency, from both the car, driver and team, not just outright speed. Despite being in a massively under performing car, Fernando Alonso sits atop the driver's championship standings by a very comfortable and equally impressive 20 points over his heavily favored rivals from Red Bull, McLaren, Lotus and Mercedes. Race after race Alonso has impressed and outperformed the F2012. Despite the great season he's had and a greatly improved car, how much better could he be sitting behind the wheel of one of his rivals? Now this is not the easiest theory to prove so I'll use two parts to bring my point across - numbers and opinion based on the eye test.
Let's start with the more difficult part to explain - the numbers. Here's the formula we created to help give us an idea of how Alonso could perform at another team. By taking the top scoring driver from each of Red Bull, McLaren, Lotus and Mercedes, comparing them to Alonso and using a lot of assumptions, we'll give Alonso points based on this assumed performance. Here's how the formula works: The average of Alonso's and his opponent's qualifying position minus Alonso's actual positions gained/lost per race tells us his assumed finishing place. We then take the points from that place, multiple it by the number of races completed by the team (minus any mechanical failures) and divide by to get his new points total.
First up: Red Bull and Mark Webber. We can assume Alonso's average qualifying position in the Red Bull would be 5th. It is also safe to assume Alonso continues to make up two places on the grid to finish with an average in third place. Red Bull as a team has finished 15 races (1 mechanical failure in Valencia) so we have 15 points X 15 races divided by 2 = 112.5 points, just two more points than he has actually scored this season with Ferrari. If Red Bull did not experience that odd alternator overheating issue, Alonso would be DOMINATING (think 2011 Vettel) the 2012 field. 2010 showed Red Bull can have a great car, but the mechanical failures can hurt the team greatly. Unfortunately for Red Bull, I think their car is closer to 2010 form than 2011 and currently only about 2% better performance wise than the Ferrari. That being said, upgrades can change that percentage quickly, especially with Adrian Newey at the drawing board.
Putting Alonso in a McLaren is a little harder to determine. Through the 8 races, the MP4-27 has been the cream of the crop, but HORRIBLE pit crew work has haunted the team at nearly every round. Because of that, I will assume the team is taking away 2 points from each race (it's probably closer to 3, but at the time of writing this I'm feeling uncharacteristically generous). Comparing Alonso to Lewis Hamilton we can assume his average qualifying position is also 5th with a finishing position of third. The McLaren's reliability has been okay (1 mechanical failure at Bahrain) so we again take 15 points X 15 races divided by two to give us the same 112.5 points. BUT, the pit crew being bad makes us assume a whopping 16 points will be taken away for a total of 96.5. This is 9 points more than Hamilton, but nearly 13% worse than the Ferrari F2012, all because of inconsistent pit stops.
When we put Alonso in the Lotus, we compare him to the 2007 World Champion, Kimi Raikkonen. Alonso's average qualifying position would be around 7th with a finishing position of around 5th for 10 points. The Lotus also experienced the same mechanical failure as the Red Bull. 10 points X 15 races divided by 2 gives Alonso 75, two points more than Kimi, but 32% worse than the F2012. The Lotus continues to impress with massive gains in performance, but this team is still a year away from winning the championship, even with Alonso on board.
Mercedes is another team with what could be a dominant car, but they are yet to fully put together a great weekend, including Nico Rosberg's win in China. Michael Schumacer has been plagued with bad luck and by only scoring 17 points through 8 races, we'll be using Nico Rosberg as the comparison. Alonso's average qualifying position again is 5th, with finishing at 3rd. 15 points X 14 races (2 mechanical failures for Schumacher) divided by 2 gives Alonso 105 points in the Merc. This is 30 points ahead of Rosberg, but still 5% worse than the F2012. Rosberg has been the "luckier" of the two Mercedes drivers, but I believe in 2012, Alonso creates his own luck.
So to recap, Alonso could be at nearly 113 points with Red Bull, nearly 97 with McLaren, 75 at Lotus and an impressive 105 with Mercedes. It sounds ridiculous than Alonso would be outperforming Mark Webber by 22 points, Lewis Hamilton by 9, Kimi Raikkonen by 2 and Nico Rosberg by 30. But if you watch what Alonso has done in 2012, it doesn't seem unrealistic at all. Alonso is a great driver, best currently in F1, and would help all four of these teams with fairly large gains. He will never be the fastest driver on the track, but is smart and consistent driving style (eerily similar to Alain Prost) works perfectly for the 2012 F1 season. What else does this tell us? In F1 2012, it's not all speed. It's a well rounded team consisting of a reliable car, quick pit work and smart driving that will bring home the World Championship. So far the team that fits the bill, is Ferrari with Fernando Alonso. The F2012 still needs to improve at each and every round, but with Alonso behind the wheel, maybe it's not as bad as we all think it is.
It's very clear the 2012 Formula 1 championship will be decided by consistency, from both the car, driver and team, not just outright speed. Despite being in a massively under performing car, Fernando Alonso sits atop the driver's championship standings by a very comfortable and equally impressive 20 points over his heavily favored rivals from Red Bull, McLaren, Lotus and Mercedes. Race after race Alonso has impressed and outperformed the F2012. Despite the great season he's had and a greatly improved car, how much better could he be sitting behind the wheel of one of his rivals? Now this is not the easiest theory to prove so I'll use two parts to bring my point across - numbers and opinion based on the eye test.
Let's start with the more difficult part to explain - the numbers. Here's the formula we created to help give us an idea of how Alonso could perform at another team. By taking the top scoring driver from each of Red Bull, McLaren, Lotus and Mercedes, comparing them to Alonso and using a lot of assumptions, we'll give Alonso points based on this assumed performance. Here's how the formula works: The average of Alonso's and his opponent's qualifying position minus Alonso's actual positions gained/lost per race tells us his assumed finishing place. We then take the points from that place, multiple it by the number of races completed by the team (minus any mechanical failures) and divide by to get his new points total.
First up: Red Bull and Mark Webber. We can assume Alonso's average qualifying position in the Red Bull would be 5th. It is also safe to assume Alonso continues to make up two places on the grid to finish with an average in third place. Red Bull as a team has finished 15 races (1 mechanical failure in Valencia) so we have 15 points X 15 races divided by 2 = 112.5 points, just two more points than he has actually scored this season with Ferrari. If Red Bull did not experience that odd alternator overheating issue, Alonso would be DOMINATING (think 2011 Vettel) the 2012 field. 2010 showed Red Bull can have a great car, but the mechanical failures can hurt the team greatly. Unfortunately for Red Bull, I think their car is closer to 2010 form than 2011 and currently only about 2% better performance wise than the Ferrari. That being said, upgrades can change that percentage quickly, especially with Adrian Newey at the drawing board.
Putting Alonso in a McLaren is a little harder to determine. Through the 8 races, the MP4-27 has been the cream of the crop, but HORRIBLE pit crew work has haunted the team at nearly every round. Because of that, I will assume the team is taking away 2 points from each race (it's probably closer to 3, but at the time of writing this I'm feeling uncharacteristically generous). Comparing Alonso to Lewis Hamilton we can assume his average qualifying position is also 5th with a finishing position of third. The McLaren's reliability has been okay (1 mechanical failure at Bahrain) so we again take 15 points X 15 races divided by two to give us the same 112.5 points. BUT, the pit crew being bad makes us assume a whopping 16 points will be taken away for a total of 96.5. This is 9 points more than Hamilton, but nearly 13% worse than the Ferrari F2012, all because of inconsistent pit stops.
When we put Alonso in the Lotus, we compare him to the 2007 World Champion, Kimi Raikkonen. Alonso's average qualifying position would be around 7th with a finishing position of around 5th for 10 points. The Lotus also experienced the same mechanical failure as the Red Bull. 10 points X 15 races divided by 2 gives Alonso 75, two points more than Kimi, but 32% worse than the F2012. The Lotus continues to impress with massive gains in performance, but this team is still a year away from winning the championship, even with Alonso on board.
Mercedes is another team with what could be a dominant car, but they are yet to fully put together a great weekend, including Nico Rosberg's win in China. Michael Schumacer has been plagued with bad luck and by only scoring 17 points through 8 races, we'll be using Nico Rosberg as the comparison. Alonso's average qualifying position again is 5th, with finishing at 3rd. 15 points X 14 races (2 mechanical failures for Schumacher) divided by 2 gives Alonso 105 points in the Merc. This is 30 points ahead of Rosberg, but still 5% worse than the F2012. Rosberg has been the "luckier" of the two Mercedes drivers, but I believe in 2012, Alonso creates his own luck.
So to recap, Alonso could be at nearly 113 points with Red Bull, nearly 97 with McLaren, 75 at Lotus and an impressive 105 with Mercedes. It sounds ridiculous than Alonso would be outperforming Mark Webber by 22 points, Lewis Hamilton by 9, Kimi Raikkonen by 2 and Nico Rosberg by 30. But if you watch what Alonso has done in 2012, it doesn't seem unrealistic at all. Alonso is a great driver, best currently in F1, and would help all four of these teams with fairly large gains. He will never be the fastest driver on the track, but is smart and consistent driving style (eerily similar to Alain Prost) works perfectly for the 2012 F1 season. What else does this tell us? In F1 2012, it's not all speed. It's a well rounded team consisting of a reliable car, quick pit work and smart driving that will bring home the World Championship. So far the team that fits the bill, is Ferrari with Fernando Alonso. The F2012 still needs to improve at each and every round, but with Alonso behind the wheel, maybe it's not as bad as we all think it is.