tranquility2k9
Podium Finisher
Most of the rule changes for 2013 are fairly subtle and therefore the pecking order is predicted to largely stay the same. This said, I believe one of the most intriguing changes is that the DRS will be restricted in qualifying to the designed area(s). This is likely to benefit some teams and take an advantage away from others.
The obvious benefit of the DRS is to aid overtaking and increase optimum top speed - this should largely stay the same, as the designated DRS zones are usually placed on the longest straight(s). The area where the DRS becomes much more complex and which was especially useful in qualifying was how it would be used through corners. Some teams seemed to optimise this and others notably struggled.
An obvious recent example of a team struggling in qualifying due to their use of DRS through corners, whether this be entry, mid-corner or exit, is that of Ferrari in 2012. They spent the whole of the 2nd half of the season consistently altering their rear wing and DRS and as Gary Anderson kept on saying, this was an area that they could not get the car working as efficiently as others, which therefore caused instability and ultimately meant they couldn't use their DRS as much as other teams. In the race where DRS use was limited, Ferrari was often much closer to its main rivals. Therefore, surely Ferrari will be a team who will benefit from this rule change for 2013.
A team who will likely lose a little advantage due to the rule change is Red Bull. Right from the word go, when the DRS was first introduced, they had a notably more aggressive DRS with a smaller flap. The reason they could get away with this was quite simple - their car had much more down force. In 2011, their already far superior downforce, gave them an additional advantage, which on a fair few occasions led to them having huge gaps to those behind them in qualifying. A good example is Barcelona 2011. They were 1 second clear of Hamilton in 3rd, yet in the race, Lewis was a match for Vettel - so how is this possible? There were several reasons, one being that RB could apparently never drive flat out in the races in 2011 as they had so much downforce, they would destroy the tyres. The second reason was their DRS - compared to McLaren they had a more aggressive DRS, which meant they could use it more in qualifying, whereas, McLaren's at the time was optimised more for the race. This lead to a pattern throughout most of the first half of 2011. The final reason, which many analysts at the time said counted for a fair amount of the gap, was that RB were able to activate their DRS through corners or on corner-exit, where others could not. Vettel for example, would have the DRS open half way round the final corner, where no other car could do so. So in essence, a car that has a lot of downforce, will likely have an even greater advantage in qualifying as their greater downforce also allowed them to use the DRS more and gain further lap time, where other cars with less downforce could not.
Whilst we're on the topic of Red Bull, it's also worth noting that their up-rise in form from Singapore onwards in 2012 was largely due to their introduction of a double DRS device, similar in broad concept to Mercedes, but solely focusing on the rear of the car. This opened up a whole new "box of tricks" for them, that allowed them to iron out their weaknesses and run their car in an even more optimised way. As much as this was a great, and worthwhile innovation for the latter part of 2012, it will be outlawed this year and therefore, if you take that whole concept away, you'd say McLaren would be without doubt, the fastest car at the end of 2012.
So onto McLaren - there have been many rumours and even some images that suggest McLaren possibly had some kind of double DRS device in 2012 - nothing major but something that gave them a subtle advantage. If they indeed did, then it will likely come out at some point in the near future now the concept is banned. Either way, McLaren certainly had a very good DRS system in 2012 and this was one of their main weapons in qualifying that seemed to give them more of an advantage in comparison to the race. They could notably use their DRS more often in qualifying than some other teams and again this was likely mostly due to them having superior downforce, in combination with an aggressive and efficient DRS. Some of the reason as to why McLaren were always faster in qualifying than in the race in 2012 was said to be due to them having to start the race with more fuel than some of their engine rivals such as Renault, but undoubtedly, one would feel McLaren will lose out a little compared to others in qualifying due to the DRS rule change.
The final team of interest worth mentioning is Mercedes - they most likely optimised the DRS after its initial introduction into the sport, quicker than any other team. In 2011, they generally were looked at as having the best DRS system. In 2012, it was harder to tell, especially as the season went on as they were struggling so much - it would be interesting to know how much better or worse they were in qualifying compared to the race. Either way, these statistics would be largely influenced by their terrible tyre management, which was ironically also related to the DRS - although the double DRS in this case. The other thing to note about Mercedes DRS is that it was widely accepted to give one of the greatest top speed gains, but compared to some other teams, its corner efficiency in qualifying was harder to tell. There have been rumours that Mercedes will get rid of their DRS design that uses the end plates to store the hydraulic activator and go over to that used by most other teams - therefore Mercedes will most likely be changing their DRS more than other teams for 2013.
Now onto the rest of the field - it may be there are a few mid - small teams that actually went a little unnoticed in having a very good DRS system, but one would feel most of these teams would only gain from the DRS rule changes. Firstly, this due to the fact that they all have less downforce than the top 3 or 4 teams and therefore could make use DRS less in qualifying. There are also many teams, such as Williams for example, who consistently complained (at least on the driver front) that they had a poor DRS in comparison to their rivals.
There is a final point to make, which is that teams may find the development of the DRS will go more into making it an efficient device that can gain the most top speed, whilst also being optimal when it is not being used, now in both the majority of qualifying and the race and therefore those teams who optimised their DRS and rear wing flaps in order to use it mid-corner in qualifying, will likely alter their design, possibly even reverting back to earlier versions of their DRS in the case of teams such as McLaren.
Whatever the specific changes in the pecking order may be from the 2013 DRS changes, one thing is for sure - it can only make the field even tighter in qualifying and make things even exciting!
The obvious benefit of the DRS is to aid overtaking and increase optimum top speed - this should largely stay the same, as the designated DRS zones are usually placed on the longest straight(s). The area where the DRS becomes much more complex and which was especially useful in qualifying was how it would be used through corners. Some teams seemed to optimise this and others notably struggled.
An obvious recent example of a team struggling in qualifying due to their use of DRS through corners, whether this be entry, mid-corner or exit, is that of Ferrari in 2012. They spent the whole of the 2nd half of the season consistently altering their rear wing and DRS and as Gary Anderson kept on saying, this was an area that they could not get the car working as efficiently as others, which therefore caused instability and ultimately meant they couldn't use their DRS as much as other teams. In the race where DRS use was limited, Ferrari was often much closer to its main rivals. Therefore, surely Ferrari will be a team who will benefit from this rule change for 2013.
A team who will likely lose a little advantage due to the rule change is Red Bull. Right from the word go, when the DRS was first introduced, they had a notably more aggressive DRS with a smaller flap. The reason they could get away with this was quite simple - their car had much more down force. In 2011, their already far superior downforce, gave them an additional advantage, which on a fair few occasions led to them having huge gaps to those behind them in qualifying. A good example is Barcelona 2011. They were 1 second clear of Hamilton in 3rd, yet in the race, Lewis was a match for Vettel - so how is this possible? There were several reasons, one being that RB could apparently never drive flat out in the races in 2011 as they had so much downforce, they would destroy the tyres. The second reason was their DRS - compared to McLaren they had a more aggressive DRS, which meant they could use it more in qualifying, whereas, McLaren's at the time was optimised more for the race. This lead to a pattern throughout most of the first half of 2011. The final reason, which many analysts at the time said counted for a fair amount of the gap, was that RB were able to activate their DRS through corners or on corner-exit, where others could not. Vettel for example, would have the DRS open half way round the final corner, where no other car could do so. So in essence, a car that has a lot of downforce, will likely have an even greater advantage in qualifying as their greater downforce also allowed them to use the DRS more and gain further lap time, where other cars with less downforce could not.
Whilst we're on the topic of Red Bull, it's also worth noting that their up-rise in form from Singapore onwards in 2012 was largely due to their introduction of a double DRS device, similar in broad concept to Mercedes, but solely focusing on the rear of the car. This opened up a whole new "box of tricks" for them, that allowed them to iron out their weaknesses and run their car in an even more optimised way. As much as this was a great, and worthwhile innovation for the latter part of 2012, it will be outlawed this year and therefore, if you take that whole concept away, you'd say McLaren would be without doubt, the fastest car at the end of 2012.
So onto McLaren - there have been many rumours and even some images that suggest McLaren possibly had some kind of double DRS device in 2012 - nothing major but something that gave them a subtle advantage. If they indeed did, then it will likely come out at some point in the near future now the concept is banned. Either way, McLaren certainly had a very good DRS system in 2012 and this was one of their main weapons in qualifying that seemed to give them more of an advantage in comparison to the race. They could notably use their DRS more often in qualifying than some other teams and again this was likely mostly due to them having superior downforce, in combination with an aggressive and efficient DRS. Some of the reason as to why McLaren were always faster in qualifying than in the race in 2012 was said to be due to them having to start the race with more fuel than some of their engine rivals such as Renault, but undoubtedly, one would feel McLaren will lose out a little compared to others in qualifying due to the DRS rule change.
The final team of interest worth mentioning is Mercedes - they most likely optimised the DRS after its initial introduction into the sport, quicker than any other team. In 2011, they generally were looked at as having the best DRS system. In 2012, it was harder to tell, especially as the season went on as they were struggling so much - it would be interesting to know how much better or worse they were in qualifying compared to the race. Either way, these statistics would be largely influenced by their terrible tyre management, which was ironically also related to the DRS - although the double DRS in this case. The other thing to note about Mercedes DRS is that it was widely accepted to give one of the greatest top speed gains, but compared to some other teams, its corner efficiency in qualifying was harder to tell. There have been rumours that Mercedes will get rid of their DRS design that uses the end plates to store the hydraulic activator and go over to that used by most other teams - therefore Mercedes will most likely be changing their DRS more than other teams for 2013.
Now onto the rest of the field - it may be there are a few mid - small teams that actually went a little unnoticed in having a very good DRS system, but one would feel most of these teams would only gain from the DRS rule changes. Firstly, this due to the fact that they all have less downforce than the top 3 or 4 teams and therefore could make use DRS less in qualifying. There are also many teams, such as Williams for example, who consistently complained (at least on the driver front) that they had a poor DRS in comparison to their rivals.
There is a final point to make, which is that teams may find the development of the DRS will go more into making it an efficient device that can gain the most top speed, whilst also being optimal when it is not being used, now in both the majority of qualifying and the race and therefore those teams who optimised their DRS and rear wing flaps in order to use it mid-corner in qualifying, will likely alter their design, possibly even reverting back to earlier versions of their DRS in the case of teams such as McLaren.
Whatever the specific changes in the pecking order may be from the 2013 DRS changes, one thing is for sure - it can only make the field even tighter in qualifying and make things even exciting!
