Wet & Wild - Kuala Lumpur?

[teabagyokel]

Needless to remind you, the 2009 Malaysian Grand Prix was the first this century to have half points awarded. So, what has the past few years told us about wet GPs. In the post-Schumacher between-Schumacher era, the wet races have been:

[color=#00BF00]EUR 2007[/color] - ALO [color=#FF0000]MAS[/color] WEB

[color=#800040]JAP 2007[/color] - HAM KOV RAI

[color=#00BF00]CHN 2007[/color] - RAI ALO [color=#FF0000]MAS[/color]

[color=#800040]MON 2008[/color] - HAM KUB [color=#FF0000]MAS[/color]

[color=#800040]GBR 2008 [/color]- HAM HEI BAR

[color=#800040]ITA 2008[/color] - VET KOV KUB

[color=#00BF00]BEL 2008[/color] - [color=#FF0000]MAS[/color] HEI HAM (!)

[color=#00BF00]BRZ 2008[/color] - [color=#FF0000]MAS[/color] ALO RAI

[color=#00BF00]MAL 2009[/color] - BUT HEI GLO

[color=#800040]CHN 2009[/color] - VET WEB BUT

[color=#00BF00]AUS 2010[/color] - BUT KUB [color=#FF0000]MAS[/color]

You'll notice I've highlighted one driver in particular, Felipe Massa, who is supposed to be rubbish in the wet, but has scored a hell of a lot of podiums in that time.
A distinction between changable conditions and fully wet reveals that Massa is a particular master of changable conditions, showing well in that type of race, whereas the 5 fully wet races since 2007 have seen wins for Lewis Hamilton or Sebastien Vettel.

It is also interesting that Lewis Hamilton has only shown for one "changeable" race, although he arguably could have won that too. [If you click the link read my "balanced" account of the incident!] Any other conclusions?

Here's to a wet Malaysia 2010!

 

[cider_and_toast]

Interesting stuff TBY.

To go with that, These may be useful:

As of today 30th of March from William Hill.

Sebastian Vettel  	  2/1

Fernando Alonso            3/1

Lewis Hamilton 	          11/2

Mark Webber 	          15/2

Jenson Button 	          8/1

Felipe Massa 	          9/1

Nico Rosberg 	          16/1

Michael Schumacher 	 20/1

Robert Kubica 	         25/1

Adrian Sutil 	         50/1

Rubens Barrichello 	 80/1

Vitantonio Liuzzi   	 100/1

Kamui Kobayashi          150/1

Nico Hulkenberg          150/1

Pedro de la Rosa   	150/1

Vitaly Petrov 	        150/1

Sebastien Buemi   	150/1

Jamie Alguersuari  	200/1

Heikki Kovalainen       400/1

Jarno Trulli           	500/1

Timo Glock          	750/1

Bruno Senna        	1000/1

Lucas di Grassi     	1000/1

Karun Chandhok    	1000/1

I'd say looking at your stats, Massa is at pretty good odds for an each way bet.

 

[McZiderRed]

Sebastian Vettel 2/1

Is that the odds for Vettel having mechanical problems..?

 

[FB]

Interesting stats on Massa TBY, I'm as guilty as anyone for thinking he struggles in the rain and it's obvioulsy not true. I suppose his 7 spins (was it that many?) at Silverstone a couple of years ago is partly to blame.

It's a bit like Hamilton having a reputation as car breaker when his finishing record gives lie to the suggestion 54 starts and 49 classified finishes - this includes Italy last year and his DSQ in Oz.

 

[Brogan]

It's funny how people form opinions of drivers which are so wide of the mark, isn't it?

Good stuff TBY.

 

[teabagyokel]

It's a bit like Hamilton having a reputation as car breaker

That is actually hilarious! Lewis Hamilton has ONE mechanical retirement in his career. That was in Abu Dhabi last year. So carbreaker? Maybe he's just a bit too fizzy for people's liking!

 

[Desmond]

I really don't know where I stand on Felipe. There have been times where he has been a complete disaster and there have been times where (as the results show), he's done well. I guess it depends on the day for him. Although, I have to say, I've never seen him be aggressive or demonstrate confidence as much as Fernando, Lewis or Michael have done in the rain. When I think about him and the rain, no memorable performance comes to mind.. so I'm yet to be convinced that he's a threat in the rain. Either that or my memory sucks!

Anyways, I hope this will be another exciting race. Eliminate Bahrain as the opener, Bernie!

 

[Galahad]

It's interesting stuff, TBY, but things aren't all what they may seem.

Europe 2007 he was leading until it started to rain and Alonso steamed past.

An alternative conclusion would be that Felipe is better in races that are partly dry than in ones that are never dry at all?

 

[snowy]

Felipe is very quick at some circuits and very slow at some others. Take Great Britain for instance Felipe has never gone well there wet or dry. Malaysia has never favoured him wet or dry, nor has Canada, Italy or Australia for that matter...

His reputation for not being good in the wet may be just that he makes more mistakes or is a lot slower at the circuits that already don't favour his style of driving and are wet.

 

[Brogan]

Felipe's record at the GP's mentioned by snowy.

Season	GP		Q	Grid	Finish	Points	Fastest Lap	Time/ Ret

2002	Australian	9 	9 	18				RET Collision

2002	Malaysian	14 	14 	6	1	1:41.324	+1 Lap

2002	Canadian	12 	12 	9		1:17.017	+1 Lap

2002	British		11 	11 	9		1:25.058	+1 Lap

2002	Italian		14 	14 	17		1:27.770	RET Collision

2004	Australian	11 	11 	15		1:26.846	RET Engine

2004	Malaysian	11 	11 	8	1	1:36.570	+1 Lap

2004	Canadian	19 	17 	15		1:15.560	RET Accident

2004	British		11 	10 	9		1:20.484	+24.023

2004	Italian		16 	16 	12		1:22.941	+1 Lap

2005	Australian	20 	18 	10		1:26.893	+1:04.393

2005	Malaysian	14 	14 	10		1:37.212	+1 Lap

2005	Canadian	11 	11 	4	5	1:16.008	+55.100

2005	British		16 	16 	10		1:22.466	+1 Lap

2005	Italian		15 	15 	9		1:23.365	+1:15.413

2006	Malaysian	16 	21 	5	4	1:35.954	+43.254

2006	Australian	16 	15	22				RET Accident

2006	British		4 	4 	5	4	1:22.371	+31.559

2006	Canadian	10 	10 	5	4	1:17.308	+25.100

2006	Italian		4	4 	9		1:23.003	+45.995

2007	Australian	16 	22 	6	3	1:27.044	+1:06.805

2007	Malaysian	1 	1 	5	4	1:37.199	+36.705

2007	Canadian	5 	5 	20		1:16.849	Disqualified

2007	British		4	4	5	4	1:20.858	+54.063

2007	Italian		3 	3 	21		1:23.971	RET Suspension

2008	Australian	4 	4 	13		1:28.175	RET Engine

2008	Malaysian	1 	1 	19		1:35.914	RET Spun Off

2008	Canadian	6 	6 	5	4	1:18.006	+43.934

2008	British		9 	9 	13		1:33.257	+2 Laps

2008	Italian		6 	6 	6	3	1:29.696	+28.816

2009	Australian	6 	6 	16		1:29.141	RET Hydraulics

2009	Malaysian	16 	16 	9		1:39.250	+1:16.932

2009	British		11 	11 	4	5	1:21.509	+45.043

2010	Australian	5 	5 	3	15	1:29.537	+14.488

He was given 5 place grid penalties at the 2006 Malaysian and 2007 Australian GP's.

 

[Boyle]

This seems to be turning into a thread about Felipe so I'll jump in too

Massa is certainly a hot and cold driver - untouchable one moment and pretty average the next. I think he is an underrated driver who would certainly have had more notches on his bat if he were not such a great team player: China and Brazil 2007 come to mind!

As I posted in another thread a few days ago, he has a knack of driving brilliantly backwards. At anti-clockwise circuits - Istanbul, Valencia (I know he's only raced once there but he won!) Singapore (yes, that Ferrari pit system let him down) and Interlagos. He hasn't raced at the two other anti-clockwise races - Abu Dhabi and Korea - yet but I would put a little bet on that he will be among the front runners.

He isn't spectacular in the wet but he is very consistent. However, it is his Sliverstone spins that remain in many people's memories. I remember reading, though, that Ferrari were gambling on a drying race and set up the car likewise meaning the car was incredibly hard to drive. I don't know how much of this is true

He also tends to have good pace at Bahrain, Sepang, Shanghai and Hungaroring but doesn't seem to have the best of luck at these places, especially the latter! He is also a good finisher at Monaco, scoring two thirds, tow fourths and a fifth, although has never been great there,

I think it is important to note that he has been pretty average in the opening two races but finds himself a mere four points off the lead. We are yet to see, however, how much he has been affected by last year's accident.

He is my dark horse for the title this year.

 

[teabagyokel]

I was not remarking that Massa was a brilliant driver in the wet, although Ferrari's tactical idiocy undoubtedly didn't help in many situations. However, common consent would say that a cloud in the sky means curtains for Massa. It doesn't. Massa has done OK in the changables, such as at Europe 2007, without being confident and excellent.

As for my opinion on Massa, his quality can be seen in his campaign in 2008. 14 points down on Hamilton and 11 on Raikkonen after 2 races, he came back stunningly strong, surprising everyone. In addition, he lost 20 points in Hungary and Singapore through no fault of his own, in addition to probably the race win in Canada as well if it weren't for a botched pitstop.
In 2009, in a poor Ferrari, he left the scene as best of the rest behind the Brawns and Red Bulls.

I like him, and he beat Alonso in Australia*, despite losing to him on Massa-turf at Sakhir. Lets not dismiss Massa due to his schitzophrenic nature or almost symbiotic partnership with his race engineer. I like the guy, and I half-expect him to do very well indeed.

*Yes, I know FA was looking back at turn 1 for a while, but only because of a really poor start