The 2012 Season

[Brogan]

Mathematically, there are still nine drivers and six constructors who can win the WDC and WCC respectively.

Drivers
Fernando Alonso
Sebastian Vettel
Kimi Räikkönen
Lewis Hamilton
Mark Webber
Jenson Button
Nico Rosberg
Romain Grosjean
Felipe Massa

Constructors
Red Bull-Renault
McLaren-Mercedes
Ferrari
Lotus-Renault
Mercedes
Sauber-Ferrari

Realistically, it's the top two from each list.

 

[Bill Boddy]

Realistically it's the second driver in the list.

 

[Brogan]

Red Bull have scored the first 1-2 of the season.

Mathematically, there are now just six drivers and four constructors who can win the WDC and WCC respectively.

Drivers
Sebastian Vettel
Fernando Alonso
Kimi Räikkönen
Lewis Hamilton
Mark Webber
Jenson Button

Constructors
Red Bull-Renault
Ferrari
McLaren-Mercedes
Lotus-Renault

Realistically, it's the top one from each list.

 

[Wombcat]

Don't count Alonso out yet. The Ferrari was the 2nd fastest car in the race today. Doesn't need much improvement to beat Red Bull. Or a DNF from Vettel and the tables turn again.

 

[Quintessentially]

Yeah agreed. There are a lot more twists to come in this fight and Alonso is doing what he has to do and bringing the car home behind the Redbulls. It would help if McLaren can get their act together.

 

[Bill Boddy]

Alonso was an average of a quarter of a second slower per lap than Vettel in Korea. That is a large gap in terms of F1, rarely does a major upgrade bring that much. Apart from that Vettel was not even going flat out, he quickly built a lead and then managed it. So in reality Ferrari need to improve by at least 0.3 second per lap more than Red Bull.

It just seems unlikely to me that Ferrari can bridge that gap.

 

[Jen]

I am hoping that Alonso is endlessly elastic. He can smell the Championship and will strive to bag it.

 

[snowy]

Martin Whitmarsh doesn't know when to give up: http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/103457
Perhaps this is the problem at McLaren?

 

[Galahad]

Perhaps this is the problem at McLaren?

I'm going to stick my neck out and say no, it isn't.

 

[Kewee]

Alonso was an average of a quarter of a second slower per lap than Vettel in Korea. That is a large gap in terms of F1, rarely does a major upgrade bring that much. Apart from that Vettel was not even going flat out, he quickly built a lead and then managed it. So in reality Ferrari need to improve by at least 0.3 second per lap more than Red Bull.

It just seems unlikely to me that Ferrari can bridge that gap.

Quarter of a second per lap doesn't take into account the fact that Alonso backed right off in the closing three or four laps Bill. For the majority of the race Alonso was between eight to nine seconds back from Vettel. Over the 55 lap race distance that only equates to about one and a half tenths per lap. Some have said Vettel was just cruising. I would suggest they were all conserving their tyres (cruising) so as they had some life left in them for an attack in the closing stages had it been possible. Alonso was certainly pacing his race as he usually does. He tried to mount an attack and then backed off when he realized he wasn't going to be able to gain a place. None of us know whether Ferrari can close on Red Bull though the next races will answer that. One and a half tenths is a gain that is certainly possible. The one thing in Alonso's favor this year as opposed to 2010 is he only has one driver to worry about, Vettel, none of the others are a threat to him now. One last comment regarding Vettel not driving flat out or just cruising as some have put it, He took the absolute maximum out of his tyres that allowed him to finish. Yes he could have driven much quicker, so could have Alonso, but there would have been no guarantee they would have survived the race distance.

 

[Bill Boddy]

Go to http://www.fia.com/en-GB/mediacentre/f1_media/Pages/event-information.aspx and open "Race - history chart". There you will find the gaps between Vettel and everyone else for every lap.

For instance, from lap 46 to lap55 the gaps from Vettel to Alonso were:

14.556, 15.065, 14.771, 14.197, 13.936, 13.071, 12.206, 12.573, 13.478, 13.944

I do respect your faithfulness for following Ferrari and Alonso but there are times when you have to face reality. It simply is not going to happen. By the way, I am by no means anti Ferrari or Alonso.

 

[Kewee]

Bill Boddy......Hi Bill, your still looking at selective laps. It doesn't change the fact that if Alonso had not pulled back during those last three or four laps he would have finished about 9 sec's behind Vettel. Yes of course I'm an Alonso fan, that's obvious, but ignoring that for the moment I can't see where this Red Bull dominance is, that so many appear to be seeing. This championship has been turned on its head from one GP to the next and I still believe that will happen again during the next four races. Looking at the last four races backs that belief. At Monza the class of the field was McLaren and Hamilton, though in saying that Alonso had his qualifying issue's which impacted on his result and I have no doubt Hamilton would have walked away with it at Singapore were it not for his gearbox failure. At Suzuka Red Bull were dominant without a doubt but that's the only time they've shown dominance in the last four races. Korea has told us very little regarding race pace. Every driver drove within themselves for the most part due to tyre wear concerns. It was very much a case where drivers knew whether they were able to challenge, knew the position they could finish in and then settled for that rather than stress their cars any more than necessary, bare in mind they're all on their final engine cycle now. These last four GP's will be fascinating and to be honest Vettel looks the strongest at present but if Ferrari can find just one tenth the Alonso factor could become the difference. We know he's strong in Brazil, and America is a complete unknown for all the drivers. For Alonso India is critical. He needs to finish in front of Vettel because I think Red Bull will be hard to beat in Abu Dhabi but if he can beat Vettel in India and then Vettel takes Abu Dhabi we're in for a hell of ride for the final two GP's. I'll make one concession Bill, if Vettel wins in India it's as good as won but until then it's too close to call for me.

 

[Bill Boddy]

I looked at the last ten laps, surely that is enough. However, since you want more, Alonso was 19 seconds behind by lap 19 and 10 seconds behind on lap 25. From then on there was only lap 36 when the gap was less than 10 seconds. It was for a time 15 seconds. Now that is not cherry picking.

10 seconds behind on lap 25 indicates that Vettel was .25 seconds per lap. Ferrari are not going to make that up, they just have to hope that Vettel has some poor races in the final run in.

 

[Kewee]

Bill Boddy.....My calculator must be broken Bill. It tells me that 10 sec's behind after 25 laps indicates Vettel was only 4 tenths quicker per lap. Yes, 4 tenths is too much to make up but as I said I don't believe Korea gave us a true indication of anyones pace. With tyre wear playing such a big part we can all only guess how much any driver was conserving and how much they were attacking at any given time. Alonso would have known quite early in the race whether he would have any chance at all of taking second off Webber and my guess is he realized not a chance in hell of actually passing him. Why stress a car that has to last another four GP's when you know you can't make up a place. As I said Bill I'll wait until after India before I right off Alonso's chances.

 

[Bill Boddy]

Whoops, I did the division the wrong way round.

But the point remains, even more so. Vettel built up a lead that Alonso could not respond to, he could not even catch Webber. After that Vettel cruised, managing the gap.

Does anyone know the engine situation for the drivers?

 

[Kewee]

My understanding is they are now all on their last engines. In this final cycle they have to last 5 GP's. Up until now they've run each engine for 4 GP's.

 

[Brogan]

Does anyone know the engine situation for the drivers?

http://www.gpupdate.net/en/f1-news/285703/after-korea-f1-engine-situation/

 

[Slyboogy]

Didn't know where to put this picture, but I thought it looked good.

Since the title battle looks to be between these two, I thought I would post it here.

 

[FB]

My money is on Vettel as, as we all know, a good dose of water will put out any fire.

 

[Jen]

Unless the fire is soooo hot FB!