In The Stats Or The Stars?


No passing through my dirty air please
So in these times of unpredicatable Formula One there is only one place to turn to try and find the the answers, not the stars, but the stats. Surely if anything can clear up this unpredicatability its the good old reliable statstics right? Hmmmm.

The stat most often wielded out in F1 is that the winner of the first Grand Prix usually ends up winning the World Championship. Great news for Jenson Button right? Well yes apart from that stat doesn't appear to aply if your British as I'm sure Nigel Mansell (89), Eddie Irvine(99) and David Coulthard (97 and 03) will be quick to tell him so Jenson better hold his horses on that one. Chuck in the fact that no Englishmen has won more than one world title during his F1 career since Graham Hill in 1968 and you'd say Jenson has reason not to believe.

What about Fernando Alonso? Can he find any solace in the stats? Well not really. If he was to become World Champion this year he would be the first man since Graham Hill in 1968 to race 5 season between titles. The fact is only Graham Hill and Jack Brabham have ever done that so again things aren't in favour for Alonso.

Sebastian Vettel - the record breaker - surely he's everyone's favourite right? I'm afraid statistics say he's up against it as if he claimed the title this year he would be the first driver in history to win his first 3 titles in a row. Not even the likes of Schumie and Fangio managed that.

How about our consistant none winners so far this season? What are the chances of them swooping in for the title? Well you have to say the likes of Lewis Hamilton and Kimi have it stacked against them as in the last 32 years only twice has a driver won the world championship that has not taken a victory in the first 5 races. Nelson Piquet in 1987 who waited until round 8 to take his first win and of course Keke Rosberg in 1982 with his win in round 14

What about our most recent winner Pastor Maldonado? He says he's ready and equipt for a title challenge and with the stat of 15 of the last 20 Spanish Grand Prix winners going on to take the title there on his side right? Wrong! Their are only 2 World Champions in the entire history of the sport who have won their first Grand Prix in the same season they became champion one of them is Farina because it was the first Championship ever and the other is Keke Rosberg from that much mentioned year of 1982.

Which leaves us with Nico Rosberg. 30 years since his dad won the title and just like 30 years ago we have an open season. His Dad won his first Grand Prix the same year he won the title maybe the stats don't point to it but the fates might.

Whatever happens for the rest of this F1 Season someone somewhere will pull off something unusual so just 5 races in we already know this is a season that will have the stats guys recalculating thier figures.
You might as well break out the crystal balls and read the tea leaves to predict what's going to happen for the rest of this season. Especially when on-track action is only part of the story.

I am certain we will see at least 7 different winners though. Lewis and Kimi are too fast not to win.
Excellent collection of stats and historical knowledge Raspy. This could be the most open season for a long, long time.
Some great stats there Rasputin :thumbsup:

The stat most often wielded out in F1 is that the winner of the first Grand Prix usually ends up winning the World Championship. Great news for Jenson Button right?

I'm probably wrong here but isn't there some correlation with the winner of the Australian Grand Prix and the eventual championship winner, I think between 2000 and 2011, 9 times out of 12 the winner in Melbourne was also the winner of the Championship (Coulthard 2003, Fisichella 2005 and Button 2010 being the other 3). Not sure how it works before 2000 though but it's interesting to know
Brilliant post RasputinLives just goes to show that stats have nothing to do with what might happen in the future after all if they did I could use them to rule the world (insert evil laugh.)

There is only one or maybe two drivers that could win a world championship in the whole of formula one history against the odds in an inferior car and they were (Not are.) Jim Clark (Definitely.) and Ayrton Senna (Probably, definitely.) and that's it....
Nice work chap, another one of yours which has made the home page.

You're making me :embarrassed: again Brogan - The homepage seems to have merged 2 of my articles together though. Is that your way of saying I wrote the same thing twice? ;)

MCLS The Australian Grand Prix has a weird history when it comes to stats actually. It came on the F1 Calender officially in 1985 being held at Adalaide and during its 10 year spell their it was only won once by the driver the won the world championship that season (Alain Prost 1986). It then switched to Melbourne in 1996 and since then 11 out of the last 16 winners there have gone on to be World Champion that year this is mainly due though to its move to first race of the season. Damon Hill uniquely won back to back Grand Prix's that were both held in Australia when he won the last race of the 1995 season and the first race of the 1996 season.
The answer certainly lies in the stats, there's no doubt about that, the only difficulty is knowing which stat is the relevant one!

We're often reminded of late of the unpredictable start to the '83 season, when the quick cars (and some of the quick drivers) were unreliable. Eventually the advanced car, which was finished very late, with the tactically adventurous race team and huge development programme came out on top. I wonder if there are any parallels there?

P.S. Oh yes, and they might have cheated a bit. Possibly.
See my attitude with F1 between 94 and 2005 was if in doubt go for Schumacher because more likely than not he'll win. Surely not this season though right?

*famous last words*
I was thinking about this the other day and how many people compare this season to 1983 when the first 7 races were won by 6 different drivers. If we use the stats and analyse the teams instead of the drivers we may be able to figure out who will win.

Back then Brabham, McLaren, Renault, Ferrari and Williams were the top teams. Things don't change much but I think the circumstances do change. Renault was a fairly new team that have failed to win a championship but they had demonstrated to be able to win races. There's not a team that is equivalent nowadays so I'm going to pick Mercedes as the more similar.

Renault were an all French team, from drivers to chassis to engine to tires. Mercedes is an all German team, everything German but the tires. Even though they won a bunch of GPs failed to clinch the championship, so don't expect Mercedes to win this year's.

Lotus is McLaren, competitive but not quite championship material, they nevertheless won a GP and was clearly the best of the rest. So there's hope for Raikkonen to win at least 1 race and maybe to fight for the championship next year.

Red Bull would be Williams a 2-times (and defending) champion with some consistency but lacking speed (particularly the 2nd driver) and since Vettel has won a GP already, don't expect the Anglo-Austrian team to repeat.

McLaren is Ferrari (this is not going to sit well with a few folks :)) and they also took their share of victories throughout the year, at the end failing in their attempt to win the drivers championship due mainly to the drivers taking points from each other without anestablished #1 driver, so we should see Hamilton at the top of the podium a few times and for them to win the constructors crown.

Ferrari is Brabham, a historic team multiple times winner of the championship with one driver clearly #1 and surpassing the other one by a large margin, at the end winning arguably the most disputed F1 championship to date.

So for this year expect McLaren to win the constructors and Alonso the drivers title.
Oh yes, one more stat to add to your list. Of all the British multiple world champions (All 3 of them!), none of them have won championships in both even and odd years.

Clark won '63 and '65
Hill '62 and '68 (And even Damon won in an even year)
Stewart: 69, 71, 73....
So, since Button won in 2009, that should rule him out, provided the pattern is followed! ;)
So Graham Hill is the only multiple British champion to have had longer than a season between championships? I'd say that stacks the odd against Lewis too!
Surely nationality shouldn't be a factor is this? Nationality only really affects a drivers chance of getting into F1 (due to the level of junior series/if motorsport is followed etc,) and then perhaps staying in F1 e.g. Maldonado with his PDVSA money.
Its stats. None of it really has a factor in who wins what anyway we were just having a bit of fun with it. we weren't trying to promote nationalism or something ;)
Jenson bucked the trend by being the first English, British driver to win an odd year, which is a privilage usually reserved for Scotsmen.
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