FIA Adam Parr's Tweet

[ATL11]

Wondering if anyone has seen Adam Parr's Tweet in regards to next season having only 8 teams and therefore having to run 3 cars to make up the grid!

https://twitter.com/adam_s_parr/status/509091955620712448

Is it the beginning of the end as we know it? Or just scaremongering?

 

[Hamberg]

I think it's a tongue in cheek response to all the madness or potentially to get people talking about something that isn't Hamilton v Rosberg.

I hope.

 

[F1Yorkshire]

I was thinking about this yesterday when Sky mentioned it.

First of all which would be the 8 teams left?
Ferrari
Mercedes
McLaren
Williams
Red Bull

These are the core teams with the funding and stability. Their futures aren't in doubt

Toro Rosso
Lotus
Sauber
Force India

Solid midfield teams but financial trouble has hit several of them recently plus Toro Rosso who have the funding but if Red Bull decide to pull the plug its future is in doubt. If three car teams are allowed would the Milton Keynes outfit need six cars on the grid? The tweet suggests at least one of these teams won't make the cut.

Marussia
Caterham

The newest and most underfunded teams currently on the grid. Caterham are in trouble for sure but Marussia are closing on the midfield now and surely wouldn't want to give in now.

 

[Hamberg]

You forgot Haas F1 dude!

 

[F1Yorkshire]

USF1 had a license and a potential engine and they never appeared on the grid so no guarantee's that Haas will be there. Personally I think it's highly unlikely to happen especially with the new Sauber takeover on the cards.

 

[Mephistopheles]

Who the **** is Adam Parr?

 

[rufus_mcdufus]

VJ Mallaya has had financial setbacks in the last week or so, Lotus are in real trouble, Sauber are being Sauber but worse. I can see it happening, but maybe not next year.

 

[F1Yorkshire]

So a theoretical grid could be:

Ferrari
Mercedes
McLaren
Williams
Red Bull
Sauber
Marussia
Haas

The worrying side of this is potentially 3 teams could dominate the scoring positions leaving 5 teams scrapping over the last remaining point. Slower teams would be left further behind, whereas now they can fluke a result if drivers from the midfield drop out I can't imagine that being any easier if the faster teams had more cars.

Another interesting point is engines. 4 of the above teams will be Ferrari powered, 2 Merc, 1 Honda leaving only 1 Renault engine powered team. Red Bull are not happy with their current engines so Renault would also be leaving the sport completely if Red Bull choose another supplier.

To answer Mephistopheles question, Adam Parr was Williams CEO for 6 years so he does know a fair bit about the business end of F1.

 

[Mephistopheles]

Thanks I didn't know that it just seems to me that everyone is an expert these days...

 

[jez101]

Parr 'wrote' a very interesting book on the politics of the piranha club. I say 'wrote' because it is a cartoon book where pictures paint a thousand words. He fell out big time with Bernie on customer cars and that cost him his job at Williams - it was a case of 'Frank, sack this bozo, or you won't get any Concorde money.'

Let's face it, Bernie and Ferrari have wanted 3 car teams or customer cars (the same thing under a different guise) for 8 years or more. It was always Max that opposed it and one of the ways he did that was through the cost saving measures that attracted the 3 new teams in 2010. Since Max left, costs have gone up again and teams have started losing vast sums in order to stay on the same lap as the big teams. Meanwhile the new revenue share and the strategy committee have concentrated power and money back in the hands of the big teams. Customer cars was always the desired outcome from this approach as far as I could tell.

I think Parr is pretty close to the truth. He might be a year out, but I can't see Lotus continuing to lose money at this rate. Caterham are clearly desperate too, judging by the way they've taken on any pay driver they can find. Sauber has had an awful season and cannot keep going at this rate and Force India have been on the brink for a while. Even if Haas come in, they are going to be a customer team to all intents are purposes from what I can see.

The reason not to lose the diversity has been shown pretty clearly this year with the Mercedes engine dominance. If you haven't got one this year, you are at a massive disadvantage. Imagine the same was true of chassis and you were fighting 3 or 4 or more Mercs and not just 2. It's a vicious circle in my view and pretty soon you have to have the leading make or it's not worth showing up.

It makes perfect sense for the big teams though. Eliminate competition and maximise your chances of winning races and sponsorship deals. Bad for the sport though, if you ask me.

 

[soccerman17]

Haas isn't coming until 2016. An eight team grid would only be 3 teams out. Caterham is the obvious choice as even an optimistic view has them at questionable at best for the next season. Marussia seems to be doing quite well financially really, especially given their standing. Sauber takeover means they should make the grid. I don't see Force India leaving. Lotus, well you never really know with Lotus and while I would say they are the second-most likely to not make the grid next season, I just don't see it happening. They always seem to find a way, even if that means not paying Kimi. Remember Forza Rossa Racing could potentially start next year, but there is no way they are ready. If they try next year that car will be SLOW.

The most likely 8-team grid for me is:
Mercedes
Red Bull
Williams
Ferrari
McLaren
Force India
Toro Rosso
Marussia

While personally I don't think it will come up because we will have 20 cars on the grid, if we did go three cars a team it would be bad for F1's economic health but at the same time great for entertainment value. More closely matched cars and less underfunded backmarkers.

 

[teabagyokel]

If, indeed, three teams are leaving, presumably Caterham, Lotus and Sauber, then Ecclestone would be forced to introduce three-car teams.

His contract states he has to provide a grid of 16. While mathematicians amongst you may note that 8x2 is, indeed, 16, that would mean that should one car fail to start, Ecclestone would be in breach of contract. Which means that if one team fell out with him, their withdrawal would cause him to lose money. Too much of a risk!

This contractual clause is why there were 14 Michelin shod runners bothering to take the formation lap at Indianapolis in 2005.

I think there has been a lead up to this. Think, for example, about the car numbers situation moving from the team-based system to a driver-based system.

In addition, the Vettel/Webber situation showed Ecclestone that two drivers only in a team could lead to some very dull racing if the best car was only driven by one driver capable of doing so at that stage of his career. And with 9 top 5 seats to go around, there is likely to be more opportunity for the likes of Nico Hulkenburg to actually reach the top drives, rather than Warwicking his career to its conclusion.

To provide a counterpoint, there are advantages and disadvantages to this. Although we could see all-silver podiums quite frequently (although only one 1/2 since Austria suggests otherwise), we would have a three-way fight for race wins rather than two. It sees more talented drivers less blocked from the top seats, but more risks in driver choice as well!

 

[jez101]

Felipe, Fernando and Kimi are faster than you.

I'm not as optimistic as you teabagyokel , this is the first time in forever that team mates have been allowed to fight for the lead and for the championship. In the event that two teams are actually competing, there will still be clear number one drivers . It is only because Merc were unbeatable that they were allowed to race wheel to wheel (wheel to front wing?) this year.

No one wants to do a McLaren 2007 again and the chances of that with 3 car teams are greater.

 

[teabagyokel]

In the event that two teams are actually competing, there will still be clear number one drivers

I don't think it matters how many cars there are per team if there are two competing teams, but we haven't had that for 6 years now...!

 

[Titch]

Some teams with 3 cars and some with 2. That would load the championship a bit ! No need for extra points at the last race.

 

[teabagyokel]

3 team driver line-ups could look something like this?

 

[cider_and_toast]

Try sorting out team orders for that lot.

"Felipe, Romain and Valteri are faster than you"
"Romain, you are slower than Valteri and faster than Felipe"
"Valteri,,,,, oh forget it"

 

[F1Yorkshire]

teabagyokel Those team line ups look very feasible. The top 5 teams having that line up would solve all the current silly season headaches. Still think it will be Sauber rather than Force India making it though if this takeover goes through as planned.

 

[soccerman17]

Doubt it will go through as planned though. Since teabagyokel kept most of the main drivers in place I'll try doing just the opposite, except obviously my formatting won't be nearly as nice:

Mercedes: Hamilton, Vettel, Bottas
Red Bull: Ricciardo, Rosberg, Kvyat
Williams: Massa, Nasr, Button
Ferrari: Alonso, Bianchi, Hulkenberg
McLaren: Magnussen, Grosjean, Vandoorne
Force India: Perez, Vergne, Juncadella
Toro Rosso: Verstappen, Sainz, Gasly
Marussia: Chilton, Palmer, Marciello

 

[KekeTheKing]

I don't think there is any way this happens for 2015, but if it ever does come to this I don't think it's the end of the world.

There is a whole heap of logistics that need to be worked out here, and I think the teams would appreciate a bit more time sorting out their 3 car driver lineups if this change were indeed imminent. And I'm not sure how teams can go from 'Not even having a spare car built up' to 'Running a third car' overnight.

tby's potential lineup is intriguing though...