Winning From Pole

[Galahad]

As many have pointed out, you can't divorce the statistics from the specific context; cars, seasons, periods. Reliability and relative dominance.

But I was interested to see two drivers famed for their qualifying towards the bottom of the first table: Senna and Hakkinen. So in that sense it reinforced a feeling that I already had.

I might have a look at pole conversion rates with non-finishes taken out, thereby adjusting for reliability.

 

[Galahad]

OK, so here are two charts taking the finishing rates into account.

First, showing how each driver's pole positions finished up, by classified finishing position or retirement (in red). I've taken the top 19 drivers on the all-time list for poles, plus Ascari.

As can be seen, Stirling Moss saw the highest proportion of pole positions end in retirement (nearly 50%!) while the current Ferrari drivers, Alonso and Massa, had the fewest (one each). Ascari had two of his 14 poles end in retirement.

By taking those retirements out of the equation, we can get a feel for conversion rate into higher positions:

By taking unreliability out, older era drivers such as Moss (7 wins from 9 finishes) and Ascari (9 from 12) come to the fore (though interestingly, not Fangio). Raikkonen (90.9%), Schumacher (90.2%) and Alonso (89.5%) have managed to convert the highest proportion of their pole positions into either first or second when they finish races.

 

[Wombcat]

I think there's a distinction between retirement due to car failure and due to driver error. The latter is self-induced. You can't discount these imo.
Monaco 1988 Senna retired due to driver error for example. There must be more poles where the polesitter didn't win due to a mistake. It'd be hard to track them though, I guess. Besides there'll often be an argument if the carfailure wasn't due to the driver (engine or gearboxfailure can be caused by the driver).

 

[Galahad]

I think there's a distinction between retirement due to car failure and due to driver error. The latter is self-induced. You can't discount these imo.
Monaco 1988 Senna retired due to driver error for example. There must be more poles where the polesitter didn't win due to a mistake. It'd be hard to track them though, I guess. Besides there'll often be an argument if the carfailure wasn't due to the driver (engine or gearboxfailure can be caused by the driver).

Of course, and similarly there are classified finishes that are nonetheless influenced by minor mechanical problems that slow the car, but do not bring it to a halt - Clark had plenty of those, as did others of his generation. It is a blunt measurement but I thought it would be interesting to explore.

 

[ExtremeNinja]

Wow. Alonso and Raikonnen have 100% pole to podium conversion. That is astonishing!

 

[Vortex]

I've now added an extra column with the % wins not starting from pole. Vettel and Hakkinen at the bottom and Fangio and Schumacher at the top.

View attachment 3822

In my opinion, out of all these stats (brilliant work by the ways guys) the two most impressive drivers are Prost and Schumacher simply due to the sheer number of race starts too. The more races they have, the harder it is to keep a high average.

But that’s not to take away anything from other high average drivers with fewer races, all were good.

 

[RasputinLives]

Can I just say this is a brilliant thread and great contributions by all.

What interested me about Wombcats stats is that a number of drivers seem to fall into the catogry of having roughly 50% of their wins from pole and 50% not from pole. They are:

Schumacher
Hamilton
Mansell
Hakkinen
Alonso

Interestingly with the exception of Prost (and Hill, Villenurve and Kimi who aren't on this list) thast every world champin from 1992 to 2008

Meanwhile 3 of the all time greats average more wins from pole than not from pole:

Senna
Fangio
Ascari

Then you have the 2 anomalys Prost and Lauda who I think we can accept were a different type of race driver.

What intersts me about those stats is that the same period we have the drivers with a 50/50 split from is also the period of F1 often accused of having very little overtaking and has led the sport to try and bring things in to change that in since 2009. Yet those small stats seem to show that pole position was less important in that era

I guess before I can conclude that I need to look at a wider range of stats.

 

[chris1981]

This is a great thread, excellent stats on here. What I would be interested to see, (probably too difficult to find), is the win conversion of the driver leading after the first corner. There would be lots of examples where the pole sitter wasnt leading into the first corner.

 

[teabagyokel]

Wow. Alonso and Raikonnen have 100% pole to podium conversion. That is astonishing!

For Alonso, his retirement from pole was at the 2009 Hungarian Grand Prix, which was from wheel-off. Kimi's was from the lead of the 2003 European Grand Prix.

Thanks to Stats F1, we can see the percentage of races won historically from each position. (Big thanks to Stats F1, they're my first resort for any F1 Stats)

The main part of that story is that 39.77% of all F1 races (including the 11 Indy500s held in the Championship) were won from pole, and a further 23.49% from 2nd position:

 

[the_roadie]

What intersts me about those stats is that the same period we have the drivers with a 50/50 split from is also the period of F1 often accused of having very little overtaking and has led the sport to try and bring things in to change that in since 2009. Yet those small stats seem to show that pole position was less important in that era

I guess before I can conclude that I need to look at a wider range of stats.

The beauty of statistics is that you can prove anything with them, and if you have enough stats you can prove opposing points of view equally by cherry-picking the bits you like - governments all over the world do this all the time.

The truly interesting aspect of TBY's pie chart is that Rosberg is statistically the best placed to win tomorrow's GP, but (cheeky grin) MSC, KOB and RAI between them stand a better chance of one of them lifting the winner's truphy !

 

[FB]

Nico goes top of the heap having won 100% of the races he started from pole

 

[RasputinLives]

Yep he started 1st and finished 1st in his 111th Grand Prix. Lots of 1's

 

[Wombcat]

Nico goes top of the heap having won 100% of the races he started from pole

I bet there's more with just one or two poles in their career that were able to convert them and get a percentage of 100. So I'm guessing he has to share that topspot with some others.

 

[Josh]

He has to share that "honor" with Jo Bonnier (his only pole and win were at Zandvoort 1959) and Pat Flaherty (only pole and win at Indianapolis 1956).

 

[FB]

I'll accept Jo Bonnier Josh but Pat Flaherty can take a running jump. I wish they would remove the Indy 500 from the F1 stats.

 

[ExtremeNinja]

I think we will see both more poles and more wins from Nico this year. The honour will be short-lived, to be replaced by greater honours.

 

[ZakspeedYakspeed]

Wow. Alonso and Raikonnen have 100% pole to podium conversion. That is astonishing!

Their racecraft is exceptional...