The 2012 Season

Ferrari and McLaren already have. I think we'll see Kimi take a win in a Lotus. The fourth will likely be a Red Bull. I dont think Williams have race winning drivers. We could have had a Sauber driver at the top spot this weekend gone so I wouldn't rule Sergio out given the right conditions.
 
I thought that Il Leone was excluding Ferrari from his count. It is also unlikely that we will see the exact conditions again that we saw last weekend, it would be nice though to have a team which has never won an F1 race doing so.
 
At the risk of reviving an old debate that has caused much head-scratching in the past and is giving me a headache just to think about it, if Lotus were to win a GP this season would it go down a first team win? And for whom exactly?>>> :blink:
 
Not sure we'll see four teams winning. I'd even go as far as saying Red Bull won't win this season but you'll all think I'm an idiot so I won't.

I think Lotus have more chance as thier driver's settle in, to be honest. Now this might sound really nuts, but if Red Bull do win this year I think we'll hear the Australian Anthem first time round. Mark just looks a lot better in this year's car than Seb does.
 
At the risk of reviving an old debate that has caused much head-scratching in the past and is giving me a headache just to think about it, if Lotus were to win a GP this season would it go down a first team win? And for whom exactly?>>> :blink:

1st win and it would be for Lotus, surely.
 
Not sure we'll see four teams winning. I'd even go as far as saying Red Bull won't win this season but you'll all think I'm an idiot so I won't.

I think Lotus have more chance as thier driver's settle in, to be honest. Now this might sound really nuts, but if Red Bull do win this year I think we'll hear the Australian Anthem first time round. Mark just looks a lot better in this year's car than Seb does.

I think you're both nuts. The Red Bull has been the only car thats been able to live with the Mclaren for race pace but Kimi and Sergio Perez are more likely to win than they are? Bloody strange view if you ask me. One mixed up wet race does not make a great car.

As for Webber being more likely to win than Vettel I think thats wishful thinking on an anti-Vettelist to me. Look at the stats. In the 57 races Vettel and Webber have had at Red Bull together they've both been classified as finishing in 46 of them of those 46 Webber has only finished in front of Vettel 15 times so in less than third of their races together. In fact in the last 26 races they've both finished Webber has only finished in front of Vettel 3 times - one of them was Brazil where you can say Vettel had a gearbox problem or the team let Webber win depending on your poision and the other was last weekend where if Vettel hadn't made an error with the backmarker he'd have once again finished nicely in front - so basically that leaves us with Germany last year. I'm sure someone will throw in some comment about exhaust gasses but I'll back that up by saying Webber hasn't looked like beating him this season(in the race). Patrese has a better record against Mansell! Lets think about that.

So I'm going to put my money where my mouth is. If Vettel does not get a Grand Prix win this season I will run naked over tower bridge.
 
I think you're both nuts. The Red Bull has been the only car thats been able to live with the Mclaren for race pace but Kimi and Sergio Perez are more likely to win than they are? Bloody strange view if you ask me. One mixed up wet race does not make a great car.

But it isn't. The Lotus, Ferrari, Williams and Sauber have all shown very good race pace. If not just to challenge the Bulls, also the McLaren's. The Lotus also looks like it has fantastic qualifying pace.

So, with the Mercs and Lotii, having the potential to beat Red Bull in qualli and with so many cars on a similar race pace, I don't think I am nuts at all.

It is worth noting that even if Seb finished 4th on Sunday, both of his results would be largely a product of attrition.

I think we can ignore last year all together as a reference point. We can look at many teams to see that the new regulations have moved the car away from some drivers and towards others. All Webber needs to do is sort his starts out, and he is going to be beating Vettel this year on merit. That's why I've got Webber as the first man to take a win for Red Bull, but I will be suprised if Kimi doesn't take one in the Lotus first, which is a better qualifying car and as fast in the race as Red Bull.
 
But it isn't. The Lotus, Ferrari, Williams and Sauber have all shown very good race pace. If not just to challenge the Bulls, also the McLaren's. The Lotus also looks like it has fantastic qualifying pace

ermmm no. The Ferrari has shown nothing like a good race pace until it rained(you may have noticed a few stories in the press about how uncompetitve they are) - the same with the Sauber. Williams also haven't shown that they have a race winning pace either and they've certainly not challenged the Red Bulls. Maldonado's fastest lap of the race was a full second slower than Vettel and Webber. As for Lotus - yes Kimi was about on the pace of the Red Bull in Malaysia(yet his fastest lap was still a full half second slower than either Red Bull) and yes they've looked good in quali. Still not beat a Red Bull legit in a race yet this season. Can I also remind you that at this stage last season people were tipping Heidfeld and Petrov for wins in the same car.

It is worth noting that even if Seb finished 4th on Sunday, both of his results would be largely a product of attrition.

Whats your point? F1 is about results? If Vettel keeps pulling off his attrition races doesn;t that continually put him in a position to capatlise on people's mistakes and thus more likely to take a win.

I think we can ignore last year all together as a reference point.

Why?

We can look at many teams to see that the new regulations have moved the car away from some drivers and towards others.

Who?

All Webber needs to do is sort his starts out, and he is going to be beating Vettel this year on merit.

But Webber has still not been as quick as Seb in either race so what you need to say is all Webber needs to do is sort his starts out, start lapping consistantly faster than Seb and then he might beat Vettel on merit. But then again I guess you could say that about any driver on the grid. I just don't get your stand point on the Webber thing. He had a great patch of form in 2010 where he was beating Seb but since then he's not been anywhere near him whether Seb has had gas coming out of his exhaust or not. Thats 2 years man! Yes he's doing a better job this season than last but how you think he can suddenly go to beating his team mate seems a bit odd.

Personally I think you're hoping he does so you can claim Vettel only won titles because of the car.
 
Steady on son. I have elaborated on my opinion. I'd respond backing up each of my opinions but this has the making of a tit-for-tat which I don't want to engage in. It's clear we see things differently, and that's fine with me.

I also accept that my opinions may be wrong, but I stand by them until proven otherwise by the course of events.

One more thing. I AM NOT ANTI-VETTEL JUST BECAUSE I DISAGREE WITH YOU. That is not a proper argument and I won't dignify any posts with this childish assumption with a proper response. I'm seriously getting fed up with that accusation. I say things how I see them, which may differ to the way you see them. I am not anti-anybody.
 
Steady on son. I have elaborated on my opinion. I'd respond backing up each of my opinions but this has the making of a tit-for-tat which I don't want to engage in. It's clear we see things differently, and that's fine with me.

I also accept that my opinions may be wrong, but I stand by them until proven otherwise by the course of events.

One more thing. I AM NOT ANTI-VETTEL JUST BECAUSE I DISAGREE WITH YOU. That is not a proper argument and I won't dignify any posts with this childish assumption with a proper response. I'm seriously getting fed up with that accusation. I say things how I see them, which may differ to the way you see them. I am not anti-anybody.

Calm down chap. Weren't meant as tit for tat. I was genuinally asking you to clarify a few points. Other than Webber/Vettel I can;t see a big difference in performance between team-mates and the whole thing about the gasses suiting some drivers and ot others has always been a theory its never been a stated fact. Plus I really did wonder why you'd dismiss last season when look at Webber and Vettel.

I apologise for the Anti-Vettel comment but its not just because you disagree with me - you have to admitt you've been writing quite a few things about how he has to prove to you he's the full package and you've been very eager to jump on any small mistake he's made after he had such a dominant season last year. Just comes across that way. If thats not your stand point then I'm sorry.
 
Calm down chap. Weren't meant as tit for tat. I was genuinally asking you to clarify a few points. Other than Webber/Vettel I can;t see a big difference in performance between team-mates and the whole thing about the gasses suiting some drivers and ot others has always been a theory its never been a stated fact. Plus I really did wonder why you'd dismiss last season when look at Webber and Vettel.

I apologise for the Anti-Vettel comment but its not just because you disagree with me - you have to admitt you've been writing quite a few things about how he has to prove to you he's the full package and you've been very eager to jump on any small mistake he's made after he had such a dominant season last year. Just comes across that way. If thats not your stand point then I'm sorry.

Firstly I'll clarify the whole Vettel thing, and I hope that will be an end to it. I feel I have done this many times now, but hey. I am extremely impressed with Vettel as a driver and as character. There are areas of his game where he clearly has the measure of his peers, there are other areas where his peers have the measure of him. We often talk about the concept of "the most complete driver". At the moment, I believe this to be Alonso closely followed by Button. Hamilton and Vettel both have the potential to hold this crown but only if they become more "complete", and that means ironing out their weaknesses. To me, both of there weaknesses are evident at the moment. If either Hamilton or Vettel can paper the cracks in their armory, then either could be unstoppable. That is not anti-anybody. It is just my honest appraisal.

Now on your other points:

1. Race Pace for Ferrari - Great race pace in Aus, great race pace in all dry practice sessions in Malaysia, great race pace in the wet race in Malaysia

2. Seb, beneficiary of attrition - Yes, by all means keep a good pace and stay out of the wall and you will pick up places in the race. If you are lucky enough that all of the cars in front of you go out then you will win. That doesn't detract from Vettel's drving performance, but Red Bull and Vettel won't want to rely on other people's failures as a strategy.

3. Last year as a somewhat invalid reference point - See point 4

4. Car charicteristics - Both Webber and Schumacher, in the first instance, are beating thier team-mates in qualifying since the loss of EBD. I don't believe it's because Vettel didn't hook up his lap. It is clearly, and he has said as much, because he can't find the pace Webber can at the moment.

5. Webber's starts - If Webber sorted his starts out he wouldn't be losing places and fighting back in the pack, which ultimately costs pace. Instead, he would be up the front in the race. Webber has been faster when he has had clear air in both races.

Whether you aree with my conclusions or otherwise, I am sure this at least demonstrates how I have come to them.
 
McLaren, Ferrari (obviously...), Red Bull, then it's a toss up between will Lotus drop off and can Mercedes capitalise on their excellent qualifying pace but stop eating their tyres.
 
Firstly I'll clarify the whole Vettel thing, and I hope that will be an end to it. I feel I have done this many times now, but hey. I am extremely impressed with Vettel as a driver and as character. There are areas of his game where he clearly has the measure of his peers, there are other areas where his peers have the measure of him. We often talk about the concept of "the most complete driver". At the moment, I believe this to be Alonso closely followed by Button. Hamilton and Vettel both have the potential to hold this crown but only if they become more "complete", and that means ironing out their weaknesses. To me, both of there weaknesses are evident at the moment. If either Hamilton or Vettel can paper the cracks in their armory, then either could be unstoppable. That is not anti-anybody. It is just my honest appraisal.

Now on your other points:

1. Race Pace for Ferrari - Great race pace in Aus, great race pace in all dry practice sessions in Malaysia, great race pace in the wet race in Malaysia

2. Seb, beneficiary of attrition - Yes, by all means keep a good pace and stay out of the wall and you will pick up places in the race. If you are lucky enough that all of the cars in front of you go out then you will win. That doesn't detract from Vettel's drving performance, but reb Bull and Vettel won't want tpo rely on other people's failures as a strategy.

3. Last year as a somewhat invalid reference point - See point 4

4. Car charicteristics - Both Webber and Schumacher, in the first instance, are beating thier team-mates in qualifying since the loss of EBD. I don't believe it's because Vettel didn't hook up his lap. It is clearly, and he has said as much, because he can't find the pace Webber can at the moment.

5. Webber's starts - If Webber sorted his starts out he wouldn't be losing places and fighting back in the pack, which ultimately costs pace. Instead, he would be up the front in the race. Webber has been faster when he has had clear air in both races.

whether you aree with my conclusions or otherwise, I am sure this at least demonstrates how I have come to them.

Thanks.

Well no Red Bull can't rely on others mistakes for victories but it has worked for others in the past - Alonso is a great example of this. I think by the time we get back to Europe we'll see a quicker Red Bull. Its not too far off the Mclaren now and I'm sure there is more to come from it. Adrian Newy doesn't become a crap designer over night.

I'm sorry but I don't buy into the EBD making such a big difference between drivers. You quote Schumacher and Rosberg as another reference but lets remember that Schumi was knocking on the door where Rosberg was concerned at the end of last year and Rosberg has had 2 quali session and blow his quick lap twice. If you look at the way their races have gone its been pretty much situation normal between the 2 of them and both have lost out because of the amazing rubber eating Mercedes car. I think Webber is on better form this season than he was last but putting it all down to the EBD seems a bit ridiculous to me. I think you have to look back to 2009 and 2010 and see that he was this close to Seb in quali and race pace then but still very rarely beat him.

As for Ferrari having good race pace is Australia I think you need to look at it again. At some points Alonso was a second slower than the Red Bulls.
 
Which four teams do you count as being likely to supply race winners this year? McLaren, Red Bull and who else? At the moment not Mercedes, Lotus as outsiders maybe but I feel that they will need to get a bit of luck ; with their recent history they have been very patchy, good at one circuit and poor at the next.


At the moment Mclaren, Red Bull, Lotus and Mercedes... their tyre wear issue can't be a permanent problem and I think on circuits with long straights spa and Monza they will be more of a threat like last year
 
I'm sorry but I don't buy into the EBD making such a big difference between drivers. You quote Schumacher and Rosberg as another reference but lets remember that Schumi was knocking on the door where Rosberg was concerned at the end of last year and Rosberg has had 2 quali session and blow his quick lap twice.

Let's use Ferrari as an example as well then. That gives us three teams where the driver line-ups have been consistent but the pace in qualli has moved to one side of the garage. OK, Massa was getting trounced by Alonso last year but he was there, thereabouts, or ahead in qualifying. Now, he is not even in sight. remember that Massa's almost championship winning year was when the car was covered in downforce generating winglets, too, which suggests that he likes a planted car, as does Reosberg and Vettel.

The difference at McLaren is that they have clawed back more downforce than the other teams and so are suffering less variance as a result of the new regs.

I don't think it is too far a stretch to say that drivers have different driving styles which are more suited to different technical regulations and the car characteristics that come with them.

I won't argue my other points to death because I think that what we have seen in terms of indicators for the season are open to interpretation and I'm happy with mine, whilst tentatively acceptant of yours.
 
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