As for the four teams to win this season: McLaren, Ferrari, Red Bull and Lotus. Lotus at Spa, of course!
The 2012 Season
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Il_leone
World Champion
i have a hunch it could be Mercedes if it does not rain with their straight line speed superioty will come into play
Could well be, but its a question of how much their straight-line speed advantage is a product of the Super DRS, which makes me think that in that two race run of Spa → Monza they'll be inferior to McLaren especially in "getting a run" off Parabolica, Blanchimont, Eau Rouge etc.
Also they have to sought out whatever is going wrong with their tyre wear. I can't see why people are bigging Merc up for a win - they're great in quali but slightly less great for the first half of the race and then just dissapear backwards down the field. Currently they stand 9th in the constructors championship with 1 point and only Marussia, Caterham and HRT have worse results. Schumacher's had 2 first lap incidents, Rosberg has messed up 2 qualifying sessions. They're doing bloomin awful in every department at the moment. Even Bernie has stopped courting them for the new Concorde agreement!
To be honest I think the team are just hoping for a strong points finish before they look for wins.
Nico Rosberg has started in 7th place in 6 of his last 8 Grands Prix.
Did you know he hasn't finished in the top 5 since Turkey last year? and he's not had a podium since Silverstone 2010!
I think you have to reasonably assume that that would not be the case were he driving for Red Bull, McLaren or Ferrari. His 7 times world champion team-mate hasn't had a podium since............
This is how I see 2012 at the moment:
@ #10
Kewee
Race Winner
Couple of points. This is a completely different Ferrari than last years car. Last year they couldn't get heat in their tyres during qualifying and it was tyres that caused their problems during most of their races also. Regarding this years car, they know exactly where the problem lies with this car and are working on upgrades to solve their issues. They will also no doubt be fully aware of trying not to create a new problem as they introduce their upgrades.
Knowing the problem is not the same as knowing the solution. For example, most of the teams on the grid have the problem that there are faster cars than their own. Imagine what would happen if everybody solved that problem. I think they would end up with the same problem.
Il_leone
World Champion
Spa and Monza were their strongest races last season 2nd half of the season plus Japan ... power circuits
the only other race where they were in contention was China .. long straights ! except Canada thanks to Schumi's gamble
Il_leone
World Champion
The Mercedes was a car in no man's land last season but they have definitely closed the gap to the front to be in with a shout
If they can get some clean getaways from the start and last they will be a pain for anyone trying to pass them
I'm not sure how you can say they've closed the gap. They're closer in quali yes but have you seen them drop back in race shape? awful jus awful
Il_leone
World Champion
last year their cars was good at maintaining grip being the gentlest on tyres usually the softs but they were terrible on harder tyres which have less grip and dropped off like a stone
This year it seems the car can't get up to speed for 1 lap but race pace in Alonso's hands its not too bad It seems to be lower fuel and when the tyre has worn down they really drop off again
We've only seen glimpses of it in Melbourne because Schumacher was out early. In Malaysia their straightline speed set up is a handicap in the rain when more aero grip is needed which they lack to the other teams.
They are closer to cause more problems for the other 3 teams than last year
With extra resources this year they will be able to sort the car out more quickly you'd think
We haven't really seen anymore glimpses than last year. Last year they'd mix it up with the big boys at the start of the race and then slip backwards but hopefully hang on to 7th or 8th place. This year they've not even managed that. Rosberg might have got a 7th in Australia but he was still nearly 40 seconds off the lead.
Currently Merc have 1 point and are placed 9th in the Constructors championship. Whilst I admire your optimisum you're asking a lot for them to fix all those problems and turn it into a race winner. I'd like to see it as much as you but I don't know how you've got that they are closer to the front from the first 2 races!
I can't see them lasting more than a couple of laps in front, even if they lock out the front row. At the moment, I think that thier woes are greater than that of last year.
Il_leone
World Champion
Speedwise they are closer to the front to cause problems for Mclaren and Red Bull
it was lucky for Vettel Schumi only held him for 10 laps in Melbourne
they are not handicapped by the EBD like last year . Schumacher will always fight hard for his place although Rosberg there are doubts about his race craft at the moment
1pt does not truly reflect their position
Schumacher has more confident in this car and is gradually sorting out the quali problem so there is a possibility of Merc win but not a championship contender
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