The 2010 season

[ATL11]

I said it a few days ago, the WCC and WDC will not be won by McLaren or either of their drivers.

Think realistically it is a 3 car race.....but stranger things have happened, end of the 2007 season.....

 

[Brogan]

The first double DNF for Red Bull has handed the advantage to Alonso.
With 3 wins in the last 4 races he certainly seems to have the momentum.

Currently the points for the top 4 are:
Fernando Alonso 231
Mark Webber 220
Lewis Hamilton 210
Sebastian Vettel 206

Considering Red Bull and Ferrari are the fastest cars on the grid, realistically it's between Alonso and Webber.

 

[teabagyokel]

To win the Championship at the Brazilian Grand Prix, Fernando Alonso needs to extend his lead to 25 points [if he wins] or 26 points if he doesn't.



This table shows the possible points scores after Brazil. If Jenson Button finishes the race in the red zone, then he will be guaranteed to be out of the title race. If Alonso wins the race, then a yellow zone finish will eliminate a contender in it [and hence Vettel, Hamilton and Button]. If Alonso is second then the emboldened finishers would lead to elimination.

To summarise,

Button 3rd or less = ELIMINATION
Alonso WINS = ELIMINATION for Vettel, Hamilton, Button + Webber must be 4th or better
Alonso 2nd = ELIMINATION for Button, Webber needs 8th or more, Hamilton 3rd or more, Vettel to win.

Please drag your own conclusions out if necessary.

A third place finish for Alonso would give him the title IF Webber Does Not Score, Hamilton finishes 4th or worse and Vettel finishes 4th or worse.

 

[Brogan]

Nice work.

That table is a great way of showing the permutations.

 

[teabagyokel]

I made myself one for the 2007 Brazilian GP, and it helped, so I thought I'd give it another punt!

 

[teabagyokel]

Right, here is the Abu Dhabi points table, green meaning CHAMPION , red meaning NOT CHAMPION!*



246 points would put the RBR drivers out since they need to win the race to have a chance on countback.

If ALONSO comes 3rd, WEBBER must win to take the title. VETTEL is out.
If ALONSO comes 4th, WEBBER must win to take the title. VETTEL is out.
If ALONSO comes 5th, WEBBER or VETTEL must win to take the title.
If ALONSO comes 6th, WEBBER must win, or come 2nd with VETTEL not 1st to take the title, and VETTEL must win to take the title.

It looks good for the Spaniard to me!

*Lotus and Ferrari fans - no!

 

[Brogan]

I f Hamilton wins, Vettel finishes 3rd or lower, Webber 6th or lower and Alonso out of the points then the title's his.

I wonder how much that's worth at the bookies?

 

[KekeTheKing]

I f Hamilton wins, Vettel finishes 3rd or lower, Webber 6th or lower and Alonso out of the points then the title's his.

That's not too much to ask for is it. A first lap incident that cripples Alonso and sends the Bulls backward.

Hamilton (P1) - 247
Webber (P6) - 246
Vettel (P3) - 246
Alonso (DNF) - 246

Stranger things have happened. Haven't they?

 

[teabagyokel]

If the Grand Prix finished with the same result as an earlier one this season, who would win?

BAHRAIN - Alonso
AUSTRALIA - Alonso
MALAYSIA - Vettel
CHINA - Alonso
SPAIN - Alonso
MONACO - Webber
TURKEY - Webber
CANADA - Alonso
EUROPE - Vettel
BRITAIN - Webber
GERMANY - Alonso even without the team orders
HUNGARY - Alonso
BELGIUM - Webber
ITALY - Alonso
SINGAPORE - Alonso
JAPAN - Alonso
KOREA - Alonso
BRAZIL - Alonso

7 out of the last 8 race results would lead to Alonso championships!

 

[tooncheese]

with rbr team orders fairly likley, alonso should finish second just to be sure. This will only be easy if at least one rbr retires. Is there a graph anywhere on here showing reliability?

 

[Brogan]

All the results are here, with retirements indicated: viewtopic.php?f=54&t=1295#p13302

From memory, Mark has had 2 retirements; smashing into the back of a Lotus and then spinning into the wall at Korea.
Vettel took himself out at Australia and Turkey and had an engine failure in Korea.

So all season there has only been 1 mechanical failure between them.

 

[teabagyokel]

All the results are here, with retirements indicated: viewtopic.php?f=54&t=1295#p13302

From memory, Mark has had 2 retirements; smashing into the back of a Lotus and then spinning into the wall at Korea.
Vettel took himself out at Australia and Turkey and had an engine failure in Korea.

So all season there has only been 1 mechanical failure between them.

Vettel took himself out at Belgium and Turkey, retired with brake problems in Australia and engine failure in Korea.
He also had mech failures in Bahrain and Spain.

Webber has had 2 retirements as Brogan said, plus a tete-a-tete with Hamilton that saw him lose points in Australia.

Alonso has had 2 retirements - an engine fail at Sepang and his spin in Belgium.

Hamilton has retired with mechanical problems in Spain and Hungary in addition to Ferrari-allergy in Italy and RBR-allergy in Singapore.

 

[Jru]

A distant memory but I would swear I heard something mentioned about Webbers car being a touch off at both Bahrain and Canada. Im not sure it made that much difference mind...
Also you could add Hamiltons gear box issues at Suzuka to that list TBY if you are including all mech failures

 

[teabagyokel]

Good point, he lost a place due to that.

Knew there was something I'd forgot!

 

[tooncheese]

It seems rbr arent retireing that much, its hard to see where all there problems have worsened there championship. Maybe the rbr car isnt as much of problem as i is set out to be.

 

[teabagyokel]

It is difficult to see where they've gone wrong, bar driver error and just not capitalising on great positions. Webber has had more than one off day, Vettel has made elementary errors in almost every race he's not lead into turn 1.

In summary, the car is fine in my opinion.

 

[teabagyokel]

Abu Dhabi Grand Prix Qualifying Championship Prediction

[bg=#FF9900]ALONSO - 261[/bg]
[bg=#AA4400]WEBBER - 248[/bg]
[bg=#AAAAAA]VETTEL - 256[/bg]
HAMILTON - 240

Get ready for the expected conclusion to sport's year of Spain...

 

[Brogan]

Well it's finally over and what a season it's been.

Huge congratulations to Sebastian Vettel and Red Bull securing the double, just as Brawn did last year.

Roll on 11 March

 

[teabagyokel]

Germany fight back in the Year of Spain!

 

[FB]

I'd echo Brogan's comments, the Ferrari/Mclaren duopoly is well and truly broken ('til next year)

Many congrats to the Red Bull team and Sebastien Vettel. Brilliant season and, in my opinion, both deserving their championship wins. The better driver in the best car wins out again.