To win the Championship at the Brazilian Grand Prix, Fernando Alonso needs to extend his lead to 25 points [if he wins] or 26 points if he doesn't.
This table shows the possible points scores after Brazil. If Jenson Button finishes the race in the red zone, then he will be guaranteed to be out of the title race. If Alonso wins the race, then a yellow zone finish will eliminate a contender in it [and hence Vettel, Hamilton and Button]. If Alonso is second then the emboldened finishers would lead to elimination.
Button 3rd or less = ELIMINATION
Alonso WINS = ELIMINATION for Vettel, Hamilton, Button + Webber must be 4th or better
Alonso 2nd = ELIMINATION for Button, Webber needs 8th or more, Hamilton 3rd or more, Vettel to win.
Please drag your own conclusions out if necessary.
A third place finish for Alonso would give him the title IF Webber Does Not Score, Hamilton finishes 4th or worse and Vettel finishes 4th or worse.
Right, here is the Abu Dhabi points table, green meaning CHAMPION , red meaning NOT CHAMPION!*
246 points would put the RBR drivers out since they need to win the race to have a chance on countback.
If ALONSO comes 3rd, WEBBER must win to take the title. VETTEL is out.
If ALONSO comes 4th, WEBBER must win to take the title. VETTEL is out.
If ALONSO comes 5th, WEBBER or VETTEL must win to take the title.
If ALONSO comes 6th, WEBBER must win, or come 2nd with VETTEL not 1st to take the title, and VETTEL must win to take the title.
If the Grand Prix finished with the same result as an earlier one this season, who would win?
BAHRAIN - Alonso
AUSTRALIA - Alonso
MALAYSIA - Vettel
CHINA - Alonso
SPAIN - Alonso
MONACO - Webber
TURKEY - Webber
CANADA - Alonso
EUROPE - Vettel
BRITAIN - Webber
GERMANY - Alonso even without the team orders
HUNGARY - Alonso
BELGIUM - Webber
ITALY - Alonso
SINGAPORE - Alonso
JAPAN - Alonso
KOREA - Alonso
BRAZIL - Alonso
7 out of the last 8 race results would lead to Alonso championships!
A distant memory but I would swear I heard something mentioned about Webbers car being a touch off at both Bahrain and Canada. Im not sure it made that much difference mind...
Also you could add Hamiltons gear box issues at Suzuka to that list TBY if you are including all mech failures
It is difficult to see where they've gone wrong, bar driver error and just not capitalising on great positions. Webber has had more than one off day, Vettel has made elementary errors in almost every race he's not lead into turn 1.