If he wins one in the McLaren this year I will be surprised. I've just had a look at his career stat's and those of Grosjean and Kobayashi and I'm now scratching my head. In the off-season I looked up the stat's on the rookies coming into F1 in 2012 and 2013. After watching two mediocre seasons of GP2 my view then was that there seemed to be a dearth of young drivers with real F1 potential. I was also convinced that those few whose career stat's suggested otherwise were being passed over in favour of the guys bringing better sponsorship with them.
I am giving Perez the benefit of the doubt, insofar as I see him as someone who may potentially be developed into an F1 star. Relatively weak drivers do have more chances to win podiums and maybe take a fluke win or two this year. The crappy tyres and go-faster-for-a-moment-long-enough-to-overtake-a sitting-duck driver aids have provided a temporary window of opportunity. However, that window is closing fast. Alonso has obviously analysed the pro's and con's of DRS possibly more or better than the competition. At the weekend he put into practice his conclusions and used the DRS zones in a different way to anyone else. This will not have gone unnoticed by the other drivers. Their problem is that they may not have the tools and some some won't have the skill, to replicate the art. We will either see more of the Alonso pre-emptive overtake into the detection zone (with the DRS being used to pull away from the passed player) but only by those in a car balanced well enough to pull it off.
What I'm getting at is that as the season progresses Perez will find the learning curve he is on is a lot steeper than perhaps he or McLaren thought it was. His career taken as whole is a very average one. Occasional flashes of brilliance are not enough in any sport let alone F1 and the same can be said of most of the newbies with similar career records. So a win for Sergio will be down to his having a competitive car and the requisite skill to use it. Right now he has neither.
McLaren had it's mojo removed when Hamilton left. Button has proven over the years that he cannot drive a team forward where as Hamilton has. Just look at the 2009 season, the car was another pup and I believe (and it's just my opinion) that without Lewis there the team would have just dribbled along like it has this year. I don't care if he's "not a good development driver" Hamilton is a winner and will drive those around him to achieve higher. Unfortunately for McLaren Jenson isn't and, it would appear, neither is Sergio. He was also too inexperienced to bring anything else to McLaren than a bunch of telecom dollars and average driving skills.
I think I've said it on another thread somewhere earlier in the year, but Perez is Kovalainen mark 2 - very competent driver who will get podiums with a good car and the right conditions and maybe even the occasional win, but he'll never be a championship contending driver