Hamilton's engine situation and championship implication


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Hamilton is on his last engine so he has to take an engine penalty somewhere. The interview below suggests he is planning to do a double engine penalty in one race. Has anyone done any math of what results he must achieve vis-a-vis Rosberg if we factor in a double engine penalty at one race, and let's say a random DNF at one other race?

My math says if he has 1 DNF, 1 double-engine penalty where he finishes 5th, and then he must win 9 races to 2 for Rosberg.

If he has 2 DNFs plus a double penalty he needs to win all the races.

So it seems he will need some luck on his side to win the championship.

Lewis Hamilton has suggested to Mercedes he takes a double penalty at a grand prix to build a pool of engines to get him through the 2016 Formula 1 season.

Hamilton reached his maximum tally of five turbochargers and MGU-Hs when his Mercedes was given a fresh power unit for the Austrian Grand Prix, making a 10-place grid penalty later in the year almost inevitable.

Drivers who have incurred multiple penalties simply drop to the back of the grid after the mid-2015 rules tweak, so Mercedes could choose to hand Hamilton two fresh power units at the same time to create a pool of components to see him to the end of the year.

The downside is taking two engines at once would deny Hamilton the potential for future upgrades and reliability improvements that team-mate and title rival Nico Rosberg would receive.

Mercedes is unlikely to take a firm decision over a double engine change before the summer break.

"That's a solution I've come up with myself," said Hamilton of the 'component pool' plan.

"That would definitely be something that could be done.

"I'm definitely going to be taking another engine. It's a question of when I take it."

If there is a choice to be made, rather than Mercedes' hand being forced by a failure, then Hamilton would prefer a circuit where there is a greater chance of overtaking.

"The strategists will be looking at all the races and saying 'This is a track where it is easier to overtake'," added Hamilton.

"Ultimately it's my decision because I'm the one who actually knows where I'll be able to do the best job from last place.

"So I have to be strategic in how I decide that, but yeah, it would be nice to get a few engines in the pool at the same time.

"I hope at some stage I'm able to get some fresh ones, but the one I'm driving right now, hopefully that will hold together for as long as possible."

Suggested to Hamilton Spa and Monza would be good choices, he replied: "They are not the one in my mind, but they are good ones."

Mercedes motorsport boss Toto Wolff is hoping the plan of taking two power units at once will not be required, even though he recognises penalties are likely.

"There are various plays as to how things could go. It's not a given we will have to take a penalty, but the probability is pretty high," said Wolff.

"The initial plan was to make it through the season with four, now it's five.

"If we need a sixth it will be because we will have been unfortunate in the last couple of races, but then I think that will be enough."
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Well they're only a point apart at the moment, which makes things easier to work out. For the sake of argument let's say they're level. If Hammy takes a 20 place grid drop somewhere, the effect will depends on how many points he gets in that race. He could easily make top 5, possibly podium. So maybe not such a great hit.

Factoring in another DNF at another race for Hammy isn't relevant to his engine change. You might as well factor one in for Rosberg too.
Absolutely. Makes total sense to take a 20-grid drop. On any given circuit he' ll quickly make his way towards the top-ten relatively early in the race. It's when he starts coming across the decent midfield runners that overtaking starts getting quite a bit more difficult.

Why take the pain twice?
Perhaps choose a wet race, more chances of safety cars and Rosberg just isn't that good in the wet, would be even better on a half point race:ermmm::D
Let's just not take Nico out of the equation, for potential mechanical failures in the future.

Why not take 10 new engines in one race. If you start last once, you might as well have a new engine for every remaining race.

**** it why doesn't everyone take 10 new engines next race and let the FIA stick there idiot rules where the sun don't shine. This is F1 not endurance racing.
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Why not take 10 new engines in one race. If you start last once, you might as well have a new engine for every remaining race.

I think the trick there is that you have to put mileage on each of the engines for it to count. Assuming that engine changes between sessions are not feasible timewise, that limits you to a new engine on Friday and Saturday. (Something like this must be to case or McLaren would have taken more than two engines in a weekend last year.
Isn't the engine detected via a transponder at the end of the pit lane?

You could also have a new engine for Sunday.
Isn't the engine detected via a transponder at the end of the pit lane?
Could be, still means you need a working engine in the car at the end of the pit lane in order for it to count as a new engine.

You could also have a new engine for Sunday.

Are you allowed to have to car overnight out of parc fermé without good reason?
It's a team sport. Otherwise a team could use it to their advantage to give their driver a benefit in the final races to improve their chances on the WDC. Now there is the counterargument that it may negatively affect their standings in the WCC, but what if it that was already final (meaning that whatever the results were, their position wouldn't change)? Or if the team wouldn't care if they finished 2nd or 3rd in the WCC, because getting the WDC would be commercially more important to them.
Regardless of the penalty implications I have a gut feeling Hamilton will drive around whatever problems are put in front of him. I still believe he will win the title again this year, he has the ability to dig deeper than any other driver at present.
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