Catalunya - Qualifying Weights

[Galahad]

The FIA have published the qualifying weights of the cars for the Spanish Grand Prix: http://www.fia.com/en-GB/mediacentre/f1 ... eights.pdf

I have used this information to try to calculate the true performance of the car/driver combinations, by equalising the weights down to the notional minimum of 605kg.

To assist I have used Williams' estimate of fuel consumption of 2.44kg per 5km: http://www.williamsf1.com/news/view/934

From observation of lap times in previous races at Catalunya I have estimated the lap time cost of a single lap of fuel as 0.087s.

1 (2)	Vettel	1:20.660	651.5	20.5	1:18.879
2 (1)	Button	1:20.527	646	18	1:18.957
3 (4)	Massa	1:20.934	655	22	1:19.019
4 (3)	Barrichello	1:20.762	649.5	19.5	1:19.058
5 (5)	Webber	1:21.049	651.5	20.5	1:19.268
6 (7)	Trulli	1:21.254	655.5	22	1:19.320
7 (6)	Glock	1:21.247	646.5	18	1:19.658
8 (8)	Alonso	1:21.392	645	17.5	1:19.860
9 (9)	Rosberg	1:22.558	668	27.5	1:20.146
10 (10)	Kubica	1:22.685	660	24	1:20.579

[td]Pos.[/td][td]Driver[/td][td]Q3 Time[/td][td]Weight (kg)[/td][td]Laps[/td][td]Fuel adjusted time[/td]

 

[Brogan]

Thanks GM.

So clearly the Red Bull is gaining on Brawn every race and Ferrari appear to have made huge strides.
Toyota look like they're going backwards and will very soon be caught by Renault.

 

[Boyle]

I very much doubt Rosberg is that heavy. He seems to dive into the pits much earlier than we expect and I doubt he will go 27 laps to be honest. Should be a great race.

 

[Galahad]

Of course, the figures are estimates and only generally indicative. So far this season it seems that pitstop predictions are often way off - I suppose strategy with traffic means they often bring cars in a bit before the tank is dry.

I think Kubica did incredibly well to get through to Q3 today. Kimi could have been well up too.

 

[WheelNutsV24]

Thanks for the stats GM - Hi by the way - I just joined.

 

[Galahad]

Welcome aboard WheelNuts

 

[WheelNutsV24]

Excellent choice of strategy by Brawn GP I think.

JB, though on a fairly low fuel load will hopefully stay clear of trouble if he gets a good start off the line.

Massa could pose problems with his KERS at the start and probably could get up to 2nd, I doubt he'll pass JB with the difference in fuel loads.

Did I miss hear Jenson after Q3, I thought both he and Rubens implied JB was on the higher fuel load? Very strange.

 

[Galahad]

Yes, looking at the weights Vettel will be thinking that if he can just stick close to JB in the first stint he'll have a great chance to jump him, at either set of stops.

Unfortunately for him it's highly likely Massa will be ahead of the Red Bull by Turn 1, and even though the Ferrari is quicker than it was, I doubt it will be able to stay with the Brawn and that could put Jenson in the clear (assuming that he isn't also behind the Ferrari, of course...)

 

[WheelNutsV24]

Yes, looking at the weights Vettel will be thinking that if he can just stick close to JB in the first stint he'll have a great chance to jump him, at either set of stops.

Unfortunately for him it's highly likely Massa will be ahead of the Red Bull by Turn 1, and even though the Ferrari is quicker than it was, I doubt it will be able to stay with the Brawn and that could put Jenson in the clear (assuming that he isn't also behind the Ferrari, of course...)

I'm a little unsure about the race pace of the Ferrari.

I know the Brawn is certainly better on race pace than in Qualifying and probably is as good, if not better than any other car out there. But I don't seem to have developed a feeling for how the Ferrari has been during the season so far. I suspect the new Ferrari improvements will just muddy the waters even more.

 

[teabagyokel]

It is quite possible that Massa could lead into turn 1 with KERS from a second-row grid slot, which would put him in one hell of a position and make Kimi Raikkonen feel as sick as a parrot after 17 pints. (Is he sick or 'pining for the fjords'?) I think the Red Bull in the hands of Vettel is the class of the field, whilst its no surprise that Button is lighter than Barrichello. I notice that Alonso is on his usual slither of fuel, but there wasn't really a glory run. He's disproportionately high up the field in the Qualification World Championship - its very pretty...!

Button has got to hope that the Ferrari is slower than it looked in P3, and will 'do a Hamilton' on Vettel.

Although this all goes out the window should the track be "mainly on the plain" (if you catch my drift)...

 

[McFerrari]

Good strategy by Brawn GP. They aren't as quick on hot laps but their race pace is generally better than everyone else's. That's why Vettel and Red Bull will be kicking themselves. Vettel will feel he HAS to pass Button at the start. However if it rains, Vettel will be licking his lips. That Red Bull is a mega downforce machine!

 

[bogaTYR]

interesting but these weights and comparisons are getting more like reading tea leaves all the time. at first people were getting a bit upset cos they thought that by publishing these weights part of the fun would be gone, my personal observation: even with knowing these weights we still dont know much.

its clear there is more to a racing strategy then fuel. there are still more variables we dont know then we do know. so whats the point of giving these fugures? as GM notes quite rightly, the actual moment of any pit stops often differs widely from these predictions. a good word, by the way, predictions

maybe, but i am not sure if this is possible, it makes sense to add KERS to these predictions or tyres. but even that still will be no more then a prediction. until then, i will use the boga equation: wait for what will happen. works pretty good so far.