Thanks again to snowy for keeping us all up to date. I've had a play with the numbers (and a practice using the tables designer) to see if there's anything we can draw out in terms of conclusions.
First, the complete standings for each driver across the three days:
Robert Kubica | Renault R31 | - | - | 1:14.412 | 104 | 1:13.144 | 96 |
Adrian Sutil | Force India VJM03 | - | - | - | - | 1:13.201 | 117 |
Fernando Alonso | Ferrari F150 | 1:14.553 | 98 | 1:13.307 | 108 | - | - |
Jenson Button | McLaren MP4-25 | - | - | - | - | 1:13.553 | 105 |
Sebastian Vettel | Red Bull RB7 | 1:13.769 | 93 | 1:13.614 | 43 | - | - |
Paul di Resta | Force India VJM03 | 1:14.461 | 28 | 1:13.844 | 111 | - | - |
Mark Webber | Red Bull RB7 | - | - | 1:17.365 | 17 | 1:13.936 | 105 |
Nico Hülkenberg | Force India VJM03 | 1:13.938 | 71 | - | - | - | - |
Felipe Massa | Ferrari F150 | - | - | - | - | 1:14.017 | 80 |
Timo Glock | Virgin VR-01 | - | - | 1:15.408 | 34 | 1:14.207 | 114 |
Gary Paffett | McLaren MP4-25 | 1:14.292 | 91 | - | - | - | - |
Pastor Maldonado | Williams FW33 | - | - | 1:16.266 | 29 | 1:14.299 | 101 |
Lewis Hamilton | McLaren MP4-25 | - | - | 1:14.353 | 83 | - | - |
Sergio Pérez | Sauber C30 | - | - | 1:16.198 | 42 | 1:14.458 | 104 |
Michael Schumacher | Mercedes GP W02 | 1:16.450 | 15 | - | - | 1:14.537 | 110 |
Nico Rosberg | Mercedes GP W02 | 1:19.930 | 9 | 1:14.645 | 69 | - | - |
Sébastien Buemi | Toro Rosso STR6 | - | - | 1:16.359 | 46 | 1:14.801 | 73 |
Kamui Kobayashi | Sauber C30 | 1:15.621 | 68 | - | - | - | - |
Jérôme D'Ambrosio | Virgin VR-01 | 1:16.003 | 71 | - | - | - | - |
Rubens Barrichello | Williams FW33 | 1:17.335 | 78 | 1:16.023 | 50 | - | - |
Vitaly Petrov | Renault R31 | 1:16.351 | 28 | - | - | - | - |
Jaime Alguersuari | Toro Rosso STR6 | 1:17.214 | 20 | 1:16.474 | 64 | - | - |
Narain Karthikeyan | HRT F110 | 1:18.020 | 45 | 1:17.769 | 80 | 1:16.535 | 63 |
Heikki Kovalainen | Lotus T128 | - | - | 1:20.649 | 15 | | |
[td]Driver[/td][td]Car[/td][td]Day 1 Time[/td][td]Day 1 Laps[/td][td]Day 2 Time[/td][td]Day 2 Laps[/td][td]Day 3 Time[/td][td]Day 3 Laps[/td]
That could best be described as messy! The mixture of modified 2010 and 2011 cars doesn't help. We can see, though, that across the three days the pace of the cars didn't improve too much among those who were doing quick laps - from 1:13.7 on Tuesday through 1:13.3 on Wednesday and 1:13.1 yesterday. Clearly on days 1 and 2 there were a number of teams who were considerably outside their possible pace, and not completing as many laps. Initial impression based on a comparison with last year's testing is that the 2011 cars are indeed significantly slower than the 2010 equivalents, by up to 1.0-1.5 seconds per lap at Valencia. The primary suspect for this may be Pirelli; though the ban on the double-diffuser will have reduced overall downforce, anecdotal evidence suggests most have clawed back nearly all of the losses (though this may be propaganda, of course!)
Next, a table focusing solely on the 2011 cars (excluding Lotus). This shows the time differences between the fastest laps set on each day, per car (driver initials given in brackets. Where two drivers shared running time, the faster one is shown).
Red Bull (SV) | | Ferrari (FA) | | Renault (RK) | |
Ferrari (FA) | +0.784 | Red Bull (SV) | +0.307 | Red Bull (MW) | +0.792 |
Sauber (KK) | +1.852 | Renault (RK) | +1.105 | Ferrari (FM) | +0.873 |
Renault* (VP) | +2.582 | Merc GP (NR) | +1.338 | Williams (PM) | +1.155 |
Merc GP* (MS) | +2.681 | Williams (RB) | +2.716 | Sauber (SP) | +1.314 |
Toro Rosso* (JA) | +3.445 | Sauber (SP) | +2.891 | Merc GP (MS) | +1.393 |
Williams (RB) | +3.566 | Toro Rosso (SB) | +3.052 | Toro Rosso (SB) | +1.657 |
[td]Day 1[/td][td]Diff.[/td][td]Day 2[/td][td]Diff.[/td][td]Day 3[/td][td]Diff.[/td]
*indicates completed fewer than 30 laps on that day
In terms of raw pace, we might opine that the Red Bull, Ferrari and Renault are all in the mix. Differences of less than a second cannot really be considered significant, since over the course of a race the fuel effect equates to around 4-5 seconds per lap from full to empty tanks. Williams and Sauber can feel reasonably confident given their showing on Day 3, bearing in mind that both times were set by the teams' rookie drivers - so you can decide for yourselves how many tenths to knock off for equivalent Barrichello/Kobayashi times.
The Mercedes has not been close to the overall pace on any of the three days. Rosberg's failure on Day 1 may have set back their timetable and prevented them going for a quick lap later in the week, still I feel that this may be concerning, since both drivers set almost identical fastest times with the car, on different days. Toro Rosso at this point certainly seem to be the slowest of the new cars that have done some representative running.