I think any extreme predictions in F1 are to be taken with a large pinch of salt. I remember when the engines changed from V10 to V8 there were people willing to bet at long odds on not a single car finishing the first race!
At this point the teams are experimenting and learning about the outer reaches of tyre performance. No doubt they are deliberately exposing them to all kinds of treatments, pressures, driving styles and so on to gather data and build up their performance possibility frontiers - what will they be able to do, safely, on a race weekend, and what is out of bounds.
When it comes to the first race I expect to see a more settled picture. By this I mean:
- The teams will have found ways to run the tyre compounds in order to retain decent levels of performance through a stint (possibly by varying stint length/number of tyre stops)
- Nonetheless there will still be an advantage to the driver who can preserve his tyres longer.
This has always been the case, but is clearly going to be more important than in the past. There's a debate to be had about whether this sort of skill is appropriate for sprint racing formulae like F1 (or more suited to endurance racing etc.) but historically it has always been part of the overall package required.