I think the steering wheel movement is to (half heartedly) change his line rather than a reaction to correct oversteer, based on how the speed and duration of the jink looks and how it matches with Hamilton's position. However, on the whole I'm agreeing with you here, just going by steering wheel movement by itself is not enough to apportion blame. The more compelling argument is just that he left his nose in where it didn't belong, a viewpoint that every pundit and even Mercedes team bosses seem to agree with.