Did Webber lose a race win on lap 27?

[Brian_W_Lawrence]

Maybe another conspiracy theory.

On lap 25 Vettel led from Webber with Alonso a close third.
At the end of lap 26 Mark pits, seems like a normal stop and
he rejoins 4th as Alonso & Hamilton go past.

For some reason he has a slow out lap, it takes 2m 01.5s,
which is about 5s slower than most out laps.

At the end of that lap both Vettel & Alonso pit, Vettel
has his problem and Alonso passes him to take the lead.
Hamilton also passes Vettel. Webber is still 4th, but if
he hadn't taken an extra 5s on lap 27, he really ought to
have gained the lead.

One possibility is the collision between di Resta and Buemi
and the ensuing tyre failure on Buemi's Toro Rosso.

Anybody know any more?

 

[Brogan]

I posted the lap chart on the other thread, but here it is.

I was going to comment on Webber's time when I posted it but forgot...

Was he held up by traffic or something else?

I thought I read something from Horner about them both having problems in the pits?
I don't remember any particular problems for Mark though.

 

[Brian_W_Lawrence]

Pit stop looked fine, 5s stationary something over 20s
in pit lane.

I meant to add that on lap 28, after things settled, he
was 4.17s behind Alonso, so a 5s delay cost him the lead.

 

[Brogan]

Aha, here we go.

On my in-lap I had a massive moment in Becketts, so Fernando closed on me a bit, I went across the grass, so it was a bit scrappy there – then we had an interesting race after that.

http://www.autosport.com/news/report.php/id/93025

Mystery solved.

 

[Brian_W_Lawrence]

Yes, but it was his out lap that was really slow.
In fact, his in lap remained his quickest for some
time after his stop. It was a long time before he
got into the 1m 36s.

 

[mjo]

Mark lost the chance of a race win at the first corner.

 

[Brian_W_Lawrence]

One of the Red Bull PR pieces mentions that there was an issue
at his pitstop. That fact led me to check the Pitstop Summary
file, and his stop was just over 25s, rather than 23.5 which
was the time for his 3rd stop. That's a big chunk of the 5s
deficit.

I've been told that he lost a similar amount in each of the
first two sectors of the lap, and that there were no other
cars in close proximity.

More than likely he had an off that hasn't been reported.

 

[KekeTheKing]

Not sure if he had an off, but it was definitely a scruffy out lap. And he shouldn't have been held up at all with the di Resta - Buemi incident.

Sector 1 - 51.9 (Roughly two seconds lost after 1.5 second delay in pits)
Sector 2 - 43.1 (At least a second and a half lost)
Sector 3 - 26.4

Here's the timing screen

 

[Incubus]

Not sure it would account for it, but a few drivers (can't remember whether Webber was among them) were making noises about the difficulty they were experiencing bringing their tyres into their correct temperature range when exiting the pits at the beginning of stints, on a track where varying conditions made the choice of downforce settings a bit tricky (Mark immediately before his stop had radioed in for his wing be tweaked prior during his stop).
On a damp track the penalty for excessively cool tyres could presumably eaily lose you a bundle of time?

 

[KekeTheKing]

Button and Massa didn't have any such issues right behind him. Felipe bested Mark by over 5 seconds (1.5 due to pit delay).

 

[Incubus]

Indeed, but t's worth pointing that Seb did remark on that, as did alonso and both struggled for a couple of laps immediately after pitting. Although they certainly didn't lose 5 sec in one lap so I don't know...

 

[FB]

From Webber's write up on the RB website:

On my in-lap I had a massive moment in Becketts, so Fernando closed on me a bit, I went across the grass, so it was a bit scrappy there

 

[Brogan]

From Webber's write up on the RB website:

*cough*

http://cliptheapex.com/threads/did-webber-lose-a-race-win-on-lap-27.3241/#post-64147

 

[KekeTheKing]

And as Brian already noted, his IN-Lap wasn't that bad even with that moment. He only lost half a second to Vettel, although Alonso did gain 1.3 seconds on him in the second sector on Lap 26.

 

[Incubus]

Hmmm...

 

[jez101]

It looks to me like he came out of the pits on top of Lewis.

Not sure if he had an off, but it was definitely a scruffy out lap. And he shouldn't have been held up at all with the di Resta - Buemi incident.

Sector 1 - 51.9 (Roughly two seconds lost after 1.5 second delay in pits)
Sector 2 - 43.1 (At least a second and a half lost)
Sector 3 - 26.4

Here's the timing screen

View attachment 1989

He was 3.5 secs behind Lewis at the end of lap 27.

If, as you say he lost 1.5 of that in sector 2, he would have been 2 secs behind at the start of sector 2, and on top of him as he exited the pits.

My guess is that he was trying to defend his position going through the loop and lost what little temperature was in his tyres, thus slowing him considerably and allowing Lewis to run away. I don't remember seeing this, but it would make sense. The facts are that Webber and Hamilton would have been in the same place at the same time based on Keke's data.

I guess the hypothesis is true that Webber lost the race on that lap, probably because he was unable to keep Lewis behind him, due to the 1.5 sec delay in the pits. Without that delay, he would have been ahead of Lewis and could have stayed on the dry line.

 

[KekeTheKing]

There's really no mystery here.

Mark made a slight mistake on Lap 26, his IN-Lap. There was a small delay during his pit stop. And then he had a very slow OUT-Lap. He wasn't defending from anybody during this time as Lewis had already jumped him. If he had not made a mistake on Lap 26, Red Bull nailed his pit-stop, and he had a quick OUT-Lap, then he probably would have found himself in P1 for the FIRST TIME!?!?! this year.

 

[jez101]

There's really no mystery here.

Mark made a slight mistake on Lap 26, his IN-Lap. There was a small delay during his pit stop. And then he had a very slow OUT-Lap. He wasn't defending from anybody during this time as Lewis had already jumped him. If he had not made a mistake on Lap 26, Red Bull nailed his pit-stop, and he had a quick OUT-Lap, then he probably would have found himself in P1 for the FIRST TIME!?!?! this year.

I agree with almost everything you say, but your numbers above suggest that HAM & WEB were together at the start of sector 1. Mark was in the pits and he may well have come out behind Lewis, but if that was the case, then you need to adjust the estimates of how much time Webber lost on lap 27 and add that to the time you estimate he lost in the pits or on his in lap.

 

[jez101]

Can you paste the screen showing HAM's sector times on lap 27?

 

[KekeTheKing]

Can you paste the screen showing HAM's sector times on lap 27?

Sure.