World Champions From The Start?

[Il_leone]

Its all about circumstances, isn't it? As Slyboogy points out, the determining factor on one of the Red Bull young guns getting a seat at the big team is how long Webber decides to carry on for - something outside their control. Of course, some drivers show such a dramatic talent (like Vettel) that their progression is accelerated, but there are very few drivers in his category. Where and when would Lewis Hamilton have made his F1 debut, if Montoya hadn't walked out of Woking in mid-2006?

There are a lot of drivers that are hard to separate in terms of ability until they get a race-winning car, then they either thrive on it, or flop.



I agree, though Brabham was a big team in '86. If that car had worked as intended Elio was more than capable of winning races and championships with it.

Why Williams signed Mansell remains an enduring mystery.

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Why Williams signed Mansell was because Frank saw what he thought was a great qualifying by Mansell in 1981 Detroit GP where he started 9th and thought that was impressive around a demanding track in a not so good Lotus so he kept tabs on him.
He could see he had the speed despite the number of breakages and accidents. He could not get Mansell in 1984 but when the opportunity was open in 1985 - Patrick Head told Frank " For __ck sake get Nige will you" when Williams was looking at replacements for Laffite.

So Frank took a risk and said as the season went on he knew Mansell was an outstanding talent and underrated - the rest of the paddock and media though Colin Chapman was out of his mind when he said " You are looking at a future world champion !"

Ron Dennis apparently had a montage of Mansell's accidents and crashes dedicated to Nige played out somewhere on the announcement that he signed for Williams.... no wonder they have never got on

Off course 1986 and 1987 Mansell became the affection of the British public and others around the world for being the nearly man and losing in cruel circumstances

Frank Williams did not budge on Honda's demands that he should have a Japanese driver to keep Honda engines and sided with Mansell over the Mansell - Piquet rivalry which Honda thought should not have happened thinking that partnering Williams meant Piquet was signed to be No 1 ...which was not the case. Both Honda and Piquet blame Frank for costing the 1986 drivers title

 

[Il_leone]

the age old debate about future world champions !

Is some of it hype or genuinely belief by what people saw in a driver based on what they've done in their early careers.

Out of the list I can only really say Villeneuve and Hill are the exceptions

Hill started his career late and in motorbikes first but showed glimpses of his ability in F3 and F3000 with poles and leading races with a few race wins

Villeneuve was not really on the F1 radar until Bernie took note of him in Indycar and pushed Frank Williams to give him a test because of his name

I 've never thought Kobayashi being touted as world champion material so please provide quote

Sutil seems to have the support of EJ who said he needs a top car to prove it

Nico is suffering from the Button/Heidfeld factor. He had to brush off suggestions he will be the new Nick Heidfeld the way his career is going and ironically not getting the Mclaren drive when it was there for the taking.
He's also dismissed the fact that no one would win in the Mercedes car he drives at the moment
Yes he's going to break JEnson's record of taking longer to win his first race before he is world champion unless Webber does it so it seems


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Now I seem to be remember the endless rubbish spouted at Jenson -

won't win a race
won't be world champion,
won't drive for a top team
won;t beat Lewis

so anything else to detract him then

The most common stat used was No driver has become world champion after taking more than 100 races to win his first GP which Jenson did
His championship was won under extraordinary circumstances when he could have been labelled a journeyman and overhyped etc but everything came good in the end for him
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Aside from talent you've got to make most of the opportunities presented to you when given . From the list of drivers some achieved through in terms of landing in the car that won them the title

i) Hard graft - Mansell , Hill, Button
ii) Some through use of the name - Villeneuve
iii) Some through unscrupulous and selfish means - Senna/ Schumacher
iv) some through luck - Hakkinen
v) Some through associations - Alonso/ Vettel

Where others have failed is due to poor career management and not making most of the opportunities when presented to them despite the talent they possess.

As they say being impressive in junior formula does not mean you will be as impressive when you get to F1.

look at other guys who supposedly were gifted and failed to make an impression in F1
Fisichella, Pantano, Verstappen, Magnussen" The best natural talent since Ayrton Senna "-JYS


As for the new guys I 'll be interesting to see how the following guys do

DI Resa, Hulkenberg, Grosjean and Perez - all who have been touted as world champions

Ricciardo and JEV is difficult to tell so far

 

[Il_leone]

FYI
Senna actually signed a 3 year contract with Toleman and then got speaking to Lotus and was dropped for 1 race in 1984 and ultimately went to Lotus for 3 years

He also apparently got Peter Collins to break the contract with Renault to get Honda engines at Lotus

Schumacher - left Jordan after 1 race because it was not him who signed the contract when Eddie thought he had a watertight agreement. The harsh reality of F1 for EJ. Obviously Schumi saw better potential at Benetton with Ross BRawn and Tom Walkinshaw around the team at the time than Jordan

 

[Clinton]

So ask yourself this when predicting one of these young drivers is a future world champion - have they really made that starting impact that all the other world champions have? Was Di Resta's rookie year really that good?

No. If he'd had Sutil's results I'd say that's promising and the slow start can be forgiven. He's also a little older than most rookies.

Does Hulkenberg's pole at Brazil show he's a future world champion?

It improved my estimation of him very slightly, and his defending in front of Hamilton was also impressive, but I can't ignore the fact that he was was well beaten over the season by an aging Barrichello.

Has Ricciardo made enough impact at the back there in the HRT for us to consider him one?

I suspect that he isn't WDC calibre. However, I'll withhold judgement until we see more of him next season - it's hard to impress in an HRT.

History tends to follow a pattern so don't be surprised if some driver we barely know suddenly rocks up into F1 and suddenly becomes the next front runner because historically this 'growing as a driver in the midfield' stuff has turned out to be nonsense.

Agreed. Regarding Nico Rosberg, let's not forget that he had a great chance to win in China 2010, but made an unforced error and allowed Button to pass him. The Mercedes seat offers the drivers plenty of chance to shine, even if a win has been a tall order since the first few races of 2010; for example when Rosberg was leading Massa and Alonso in Korea 2010, which is not the hardest track on which to defend a position, he contrived to let both of then pass him in the same corner. Is it not fair to say that despite being basically faster than his team mate, Rosberg has failed to show the winner-mentality that we have seen from the other Mercedes driver on several occasions, for example Monaco 2010 and Monza 2011? If he had showed enough in the past two season, he could well have taken Webber's or Massa's seat for 2012 and have been on his way to WDC-contention.

Kobayashi is the 2011 driver who is not yet a WDC, but seems to have the necessary qualities - possibly lacking a little raw speed, but that hasn't prevented the likes of Button from making it. Kobayashi to Mercedes in 2013?

 

[Slyboogy]

In Korea 2010 Rosberg was running third ahead of Alonso before he was taken out was he not?

 

[Il_leone]

No. If he'd had Sutil's results I'd say that's promising and the slow start can be forgiven. He's also a little older than most rookies.



It improved my estimation of him very slightly, and his defending in front of Hamilton was also impressive, but I can't ignore the fact that he was was well beaten over the season by an aging Barrichello.



I suspect that he isn't WDC calibre. However, I'll withhold judgement until we see more of him next season - it's hard to impress in an HRT.



Agreed. Regarding Nico Rosberg, let's not forget that he had a great chance to win in China 2010, but made an unforced error and allowed Button to pass him. The Mercedes seat offers the drivers plenty of chance to shine, even if a win has been a tall order since the first few races of 2010; for example when Rosberg was leading Massa and Alonso in Korea 2010, which is not the hardest track on which to defend a position, he contrived to let both of then pass him in the same corner. Is it not fair to say that despite being basically faster than his team mate, Rosberg has failed to show the winner-mentality that we have seen from the other Mercedes driver on several occasions, for example Monaco 2010 and Monza 2011? If he had showed enough in the past two season, he could well have taken Webber's or Massa's seat for 2012 and have been on his way to WDC-contention.

Kobayashi is the 2011 driver who is not yet a WDC, but seems to have the necessary qualities - possibly lacking a little raw speed, but that hasn't prevented the likes of Button from making it. Kobayashi to Mercedes in 2013?

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I'll agree with Rosberg about China 2010 he made a mistake and Jenson capitalised to win from there

But other races where people want to judge him by are

Singapore 2009 - he made a real howler coming out of the pits and got a penalty which cost him the win probably

Early 2009 - he was always fastest in practice but not in quali or race day when it mattered

- Malaysia 2009 he lead from the line and somehow lost 15 seconds in the first phase of pit stops. Then when it came to wets he was about 8 seconds a lap slower than Button on the same tyres

- Aus 2009 - the fact he shot his tyres so badly after 2 laps when he went from the fastest to the slowest at the time

Its strange Nico is only 25 I think and he's already being written off as a journeyman or missed opportunities to be WDC

 

[Clinton]

In Korea 2010 Rosberg was running third ahead of Alonso before he was taken out was he not?

Korea 2011, ta.

 

[Clinton]

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I'll agree with Rosberg about China 2010 he made a mistake and Jenson capitalised to win from there

But other races where people want to judge him by are

Singapore 2009 - he made a real howler coming out of the pits and got a penalty which cost him the win probably

Early 2009 - he was always fastest in practice but not in quali or race day when it mattered

- Malaysia 2009 he lead from the line and somehow lost 15 seconds in the first phase of pit stops. Then when it came to wets he was about 8 seconds a lap slower than Button on the same tyres

- Aus 2009 - the fact he shot his tyres so badly after 2 laps when he went from the fastest to the slowest at the time

Its strange Nico is only 25 I think and he's already being written off as a journeyman or missed opportunities to be WDC

That pretty much sums it up. Don't get me wrong, he's a nice guy and he's fast. But a Senna, Schumacher or Hamilton would have taken at least one of these chances to shine, and even if they missed out on the win they would have drawn positive attention by, for example, keeping the Ferraris at bay for lap after lap in Korea or having an amazing drive from the back of the grid in Japan this year.

Undoubtedly if Nico was in a Red Bull and had a slower driver as his team mate, he'd be favourite for the WDC. But I agree with the OP that languishing in the midfield is not a trait of a future champion, and it seems unlikely that he'll be picked up by a front-running team (although I'd be happy for him if he did).

 

[Slyboogy]

His biggest mistake could be not signing for mclaren in 2010.

But I guess joining the reigning world champions with a major backing looked more inviting than McLaren with Hamilton as their favourite

 

[teabagyokel]

Two things that spring to my attention. Yes, Singapore 2009 and China 2010 were missed opportunities for a win, granted. But I don't think Williams had real speed in 2009; they were going for sponsorship on Friday mornings. The same goes for his time loss competing with, frankly, much faster cars in Malaysia that year, notwithstanding the lottery of the wet later on.

I also don't believe that a driver should have to be judged by making a tokenistic attempt to keep a faster car behind him, thus ruining his own pace. Schumacher's effort at Monza would have been justly awarded by a poor finish had the stewards not being deliberating on something else at the time, as the drivers' representative (was it Derek Daly?) confirmed afterwards.

I believe his career at this stage bears favourable comparison with Jenson Button's in the early throws of 2006. He is, lest we forget, routinely beating a seven-times World Champion. He may be older and perhaps slower, but even with the oft-repeated mantra that "there are signs of the old Schumacher", those signs still come in the second Mercedes on the road.

 

[Slyboogy]

Why I am a Nico Rosberg skeptic and don't rate his season of his highly, is because he only finished 13 points ahead of Schumacher despite Schumacher having 3 more retirements, collisions in races affecting his race results plus poor qualifying. Rosberg this season really should have been more than 13 points ahead of Schumacher.

I admired his 2010 season, but now I am beginning to become a skeptic again as I am starting to think that the 2010 Mercedes was much better than the 2011 one.

 

[Clinton]

I also don't believe that a driver should have to be judged by making a tokenistic attempt to keep a faster car behind him, thus ruining his own pace.

Don't forget that Schumi also passed Hamilton twice. And it wasn't tokenistic - if he hadn't been called up for blocking, under what is after all rather a vague rule, he could easily have finished ahead of Hamilton (the eventual pass was surely a voluntary one on the Mercedes driver's part - otherwise the timing was suspiciouly convenient, and the excuse of a missed gear change rather unlikely).

That drive may not be considered impressive by everyone, but the point is that although Nico is generally faster than his team mate, in the last two years I can't recall an eye-catching drive in which he showed his potential "winningness". He has had impressive drives in which he outperformed the car, but these are usually tinged with disappointment. For example, not only did he slip up in China 2010 but in China 2011 he ran higher than his finishing position for much of the race. Given that he's faster than Schumi, why isn't he the one who exploited the unusual circumstances in Canada? The difference: winner-mentality, aka "the intangibles". Along with all of the racing abilities than a driver can possess apart from raw speed, of course.

I'll grant that there is often an excuse, but bad luck shouldn't prevent someone from consistently failing to show championship-winning potential over a great number of races. Of course he might turn out to be another late bloomer like Jenson; but if we are talking about general trends, for me the signs suggest that Nico probably isn't going to win a WDC.

I believe his career at this stage bears favourable comparison with Jenson Button's in the early throws of 2006. He is, lest we forget, routinely beating a seven-times World Champion. He may be older and perhaps slower, but even with the oft-repeated mantra that "there are signs of the old Schumacher", those signs still come in the second Mercedes on the road.

 

[teabagyokel]

Point taken, he is obviously slower.

Given that he's faster than Schumi, why isn't he the one who exploited the unusual circumstances in Canada?

I would suggest that Schumacher is still a better driver in the wet - there's no saying that you have to be fastest in the wet to win the title (on one or four occasions, for example). Rosberg is not one of the greatest drivers of all time, but I believe it is foolish to write him off as a future champion, because given a car like the one the same team produced in 2009, he would win the Championship.

 

[RasputinLives]

Rosberg is not one of the greatest drivers of all time, but I believe it is foolish to write him off as a future champion, because given a car like the one the same team produced in 2009, he would win the Championship.

Would he? Is it just me or does anyone else think that if Merc did suddenly produce a race winning car that all of a sudden it'd be Schumie out front? Always seems the way.

 

[EvilWhippet]

I think half the grid could have been champion in the 09 Brawn.

 

[Mephistopheles]

There have been many drivers who could had the talent to be World Champions but, for various reasons, never made it - Pironi, Alboreto, Berger, Villeneuve Snr, Peterson, Herbert, Cevert, even de Angelis. Some never even won a Grand Prix such as Jarier and Warwick, some never got a proper chance like Tommy Byrne.

On de Angelis in particular, why he was never picked up by a big time whilst Mansell (whom he beat comprehensively at Lotus) went on to bigger and better teams, I've never been able to fathom.

You missed out Sir Sterling Moss,,,In my mind he was a world champion the only thing that held him back was his refusal to drive for a team that wasn't British...

 

[Mephistopheles]

I think half the grid could have been champion in the 09 Brawn.

Your comments are disrespectful..Rubens is a known winner...

 

[Mephistopheles]

F1 is different today champions of the future will be groomed by the teams just as Hamilton and Vettel have been..

 

[RasputinLives]

Grooming drivers is nothing new its just done more in a surface way. Big teams have always had drivers they've brought through the lower formula.

 

[FB]

Either that or there have been national initiatives to bring drivers through such as Elf in the 70's in France, Mercedes in the 80's in Germany and there have been various attempts in the UK, albeit with serious major backing.