World Champions From The Start?

[RasputinLives]

Interesting discussion on this one guys - I think what I'll take from writing this thread is that you shouldn't draw ultimate conclusions about a driver until the 36 Grand Prix marker and to conclude our list of stats the following drivers confirmed on next years grid have not done 36 Grand Prixs yet:

Romain Grosjean - 7 GPs
Paul Di Resta - 19 GPS
Nico Hulkenberg - 19 GPs
Sergio Perez - 17 GPs
Daniel Ricciardo - 11 GPs
Jean-Eric Vergne - 0 GPs
Pastor Maldonado - 19 GPs
Charles Pic - 0 GPs

Those 8 could still score a win and fit into the stats for future world champions - however by the end of next seasont the following drivers will be over the 36 mark (assuming the season is 19 races long).

Di Resta
Hulkenberg
Maldonado.

Interestingly Perez will be exactly on 36 due to missing 2 last year - can anyone see either of those 4 pulling off a victory next year?

 

[FB]

can anyone see either of those 4 pulling off a victory next year?

Errr, no!

 

[RasputinLives]

Bet if I'd asked that about Vettel in the Toro Rosso in 2008 you'd have given me the same answer!

 

[Brogan]

Di Resta
Hulkenberg
Maldonado.

Interestingly Perez will be exactly on 36 due to missing 2 last year - can anyone see either of those 4 pulling off a victory next year?

In a Red Bull or McLaren? Most definitely.

In a mid-field car which is nowhere the performance of the top 3 teams? Definitely not.

 

[RasputinLives]

No I can't see it really. In days of yore when the Force India was named Jordan we've seen them pull victories off despite not really being on pace with the front 4 however I can't see it happening either

Maybe the first year the new engine regs come in and everyone is retiring. We'll see

 

[Slyboogy]

I think it's worth noting that we have more grand prixs now, some of the world champs in your list raced when there was 16 grand prixs. The young ones now are doing 19 a season, might even hit 20.

Don't think it's fair to judge them when they get over the 36 mark as they will surpass that mark in their 2nd season.

If you want to judge them, then it really should be in their 3rd season.

 

[FB]

Perhaps at a dry/wet/dry/wet Monaco, if there are only 4 finishers, one of those could win. Personally I think F1 is a bit stagnant at the moment and needs some of the old boys (Webber, Barrichello, Massa), or those that have had their chance and not achieved (Trulli, de la Rosa, Glock (even though I like him as a driver)) to clear off and let someone younger and hungrier have a go. The return of Schumacher, and now Raikkonen, epitomises the lack of imagination there is amongst the team principals.

 

[RasputinLives]

It is an adjusted figure - 10 of the last 16 champions have won Grand Prixs within their first 2 'full' Grand Prix seasons. Lauda and Kimi fit within the 36 race mark but their first Grand Prix victory wasn't until the begining of their 3rd full season so I used Kimi's number as the bench marker.

You could say 38 Grand Prixs I guess as that is 2 full season going on the last 2 which have had 19.

 

[RasputinLives]

Perhaps at a dry/wet/dry/wet Monaco, if there are only 4 finishers, one of those could win. Personally I think F1 is a bit stagnant at the moment and needs some of the old boys (Webber, Barrichello, Massa), or those that have had their chance and not achieved (Trulli, de la Rosa, Glock (even though I like him as a driver)) to clear off and let someone younger and hungrier have a go. The return of Schumacher, and now Raikkonen, epitomises the lack of imagination there is amongst the team principals.

You are right on that front FB - reminds me a litte of the early 90's as the likes of Prost/Mansell/Patrese were in their later days - we all knwo what it took to shake the gird up then though so lets hope that doesn't happen again!

 

[Galahad]

Perhaps at a dry/wet/dry/wet Monaco, if there are only 4 finishers, one of those could win. Personally I think F1 is a bit stagnant at the moment and needs some of the old boys (Webber, Barrichello, Massa), or those that have had their chance and not achieved (Trulli, de la Rosa, Glock (even though I like him as a driver)) to clear off and let someone younger and hungrier have a go. The return of Schumacher, and now Raikkonen, epitomises the lack of imagination there is amongst the team principals.

I'm sure a big part of the risk-averse culture is the fact that these days you can't get a young driver to pound around Silverstone, Fiorano or wherever for a week and assess him properly over a prolonged period. Even the Abu Dhabi test saw a few who were just paying to have a go, rather than serious prospects. I think the testing rules need to be liberalised a lot, and not just for F1 rookies.

 

[Viscount]

Perez's drive in Malaysia just reminded about this thread with him almost winning the race. Not saying that Perez will be a future world champion as it's just one race, but he does almost fit in to Rasputin's trend of how most world champions usually win a race within their first 2 seasons.

Personally I never even thought Perez would come anywhere near close to a podium this season let alone nearly win, but perhaps this could be the start of something great.

 

[Il_leone]

With the current competitive field the next generation of drivers will only have a chance in the wet or these type of conditions so possible Monaco or Canada will be the next chance

I think Grosjean if he stops crashing has the best chance of winning a race as he has been touted as a future world champion

 

[RasputinLives]

Perez's drive in Malaysia just reminded about this thread with him almost winning the race. Not saying that Perez will be a future world champion as it's just one race, but he does almost fit in to Rasputin's trend of how most world champions usually win a race within their first 2 seasons.

Personally I never even thought Perez would come anywhere near close to a podium this season let alone nearly win, but perhaps this could be the start of something great.

Yeah I was thinking about this thread when I thought he was going to win - however when he went off I suddenly realised he also fitted all the things I said you needed to be classed as the Dark Horse - right down to the heartbreak!

His drive remindered me of Jean Alesi yesterday - and the Ferrari links make the likeness all the stronger! Lets hope he has a better luck in his career though.

 

[RasputinLives]

Well I have to say my mind went back to this thread again after Maldonado's victory. The question of whether we saw Maldonado winning a Grand Prix this season was asked directly and myself, Brogan and FB all answered with a big no! Egg on our faces all round.

Maldonado wins his 25th Grand Prix and is ranked 13th in the list of quickest winners since 1980 with 8 world champions and 4 none world champions(although they are Montoya, Giles Villeunure, DC and Nilsson) so really does put himself ranked up thier with the greats.

He's also well inside the 36 Grand Prix mark we were talking about for world champions. I don't think any of us saw that one coming other thna a certain Lewis Hamilton who during their make-up session after their squabble at Spa was quoted (and I loosly quote because I can't find it) as saying "Pastor is a great driver and competitor and I anticipate many long years of competition with him at the front end of the grid"

Does Maldonado really have a bright glorious career in front of him and we all just missed his potential or will he do a Jarno Trulli on us? Only time will tell I guess!

 

[Galahad]

I'm only prepared to eat a small slice of humble pie at this stage. I certainly didn't expect either the pole position or the victory in Spain, and in the closing laps his driving under pressure was very impressive. We have seen in F1 history how a car and driver can suit a particular circuit on a particular day and achieve great things - I'm thinking of Damon Hill in the Arrows in Hungary - but Catalunya would be the least likely place you could imagine for such a thing.

He needs to show this level of performance consistently in future (I don't mean winning every race!) and then I will be forced to revise my opinion.

 

[Brogan]

Yes he won, but only because the favourite was put to the back of the grid.

I'm still not a fan I'm afraid and doubt I ever will be.
His antics last season are responsible for that.

 

[Josh]

No matter what you think of him he still drove an impressive race, admittedly?

 

[Viscount]

I think Maldonado is a serious contender to be the first driver to win 2 races this season. He's going into the next race in Monaco where everyone knows he's notoriously quick and he'll be highly confident after winning in Barcelona. Unlike Perez's great drive in Malaysia in changeable conditions, Maldonado showed genuine pace in a normal dry qualifying and race. Prior to Barcelona the Williams was said to be good in the medium & high speed corners but slightly lacking in low speed corners. In the Barcelona qualifying session Maldonado set the fastest Sector 3 time (including Hamilton's time) which is mainly low speed corners and so bodes well for Monaco.

Perez as of yet hasn't been able to build on his Malaysia drive, it'll be interesting to see if Maldonado is able to.

 

[Il_leone]

okay Hamilton was punished ..you can blame Mclaren but Pastor is not the first driver to get a lucky break..anyone remember Hakkinen with two DC move over wins to start his winning career

Maldonado has shown flashes of his ability despite being GP2 champion beating Perez he is not as highly rated as Sergio

Maldonado thinks the Williams is good enough to challenge for the world title like Rosberg who won his first GP as well. However it does seem that the Williams is a very good aerodynamic car but not as good on circuits which require top end power.

Therefore I expect Pastor now to mix it with the front. The next track is Monaco where he won the Gp2 race twice and was strong last year so expect another strong showing

I will say Pastor is at least not Andre De Cesaris a man with supposed talent but junked a lot of chassis and was only in F1 because he had strong Marlboro backing with lesser teams

 

[RasputinLives]

I've said the same thing about Monaco myself because he has always been good there - we also have to remember though on occasions he's cracked under pressure so with all this build up it might get to him and we could see him chuck it in the barrier!

The reason I bumped this thread really is because if you look at that list of drivers who have won in thier first 36 GP's currently he really does stand out like a sore thumb as neither potential highly rated could be champion or reliable extra talented number 2. He'll develop into one or the other just interesting to see which way it will go.