They think it's all over, it is now!

[cider_and_toast]

For a while, in the vain hope that someone may rise to the challenge of the Seb Vettel / Red Bull onslaught, TV and newspaper pundits have been reminding us that gaps have been clawed back in points terms, like this before.

Well a quick look at the stats is all you need to see that this championship is as good as finished.

In doing so, it also becomes quite clear about the way that Red Bull are able to develop their car throughout the year and Vettel to adapt to that development to improve his results.

Here is a list of Vettel's points scored from the maximum available split down the middle of the year (for odd numbered race years the odd number falls in the first half) and it shows clearly how in most cases the second half of the season is pure Seb country.

2008 - 5/90 then 30/90
2009 - 47/90 then 37/80
2010 - 121/250 then 135/225
2011 - 216/250 then 176/225
2012 - 110/250 then 171/225
2013 - 172/250 then 75/75 to date.

If these were shown as percentages it looks like this

1) 5.6 to 33.3
2) 52.2 to 46.25
3) 48.4 to 60
4) 86.4 to 78.2
5) 44 to 76
6) 68.8 to 100

Interestingly for the 2009 season, if we put the 2 DNF's from Hungary and Valencia (the first two races of the second half of the season) in the left hand column then the points total for the first half and second half remains the same but the percentages now read 42.7 to 61.7.

It is only during the 2011 season when Vettel remained dominent throughout the year but even here, going out on the first lap in Abu Dhabi causes the stats to shift to the left. After finishing second in Hungary at the mid season point, Vettel went on to win in Belgium, Italy and Singapore (sound familiar?)

So as it says at the top, they think it's all over? It is now.

(or is it? )

 

[Speshal]

Yes it is

 

[Fenderman]

Indeed ... or should that be ?

 

[Incubus]

They say the only chance of an upset would be a couple of DNF's by Vettel.
Personally I think Vettel would still be the overwhelming favourite even if he were to have four consecutive DNF's in the forthcoming races...

 

[siffert_fan]

I would say that it is all over. And I would add that it is well-earned!

 

[Incubus]

Yes, I'd say it'll be the best of his four titles this year. Aggressive when he had to be and brought the car home whenever nagging troubles occurred, more often than not in first place.

 

[Fenderman]

Can't argue with any of the above, methinks. Well ... not sensibly, that is

 

[teabagyokel]

I don't wish serious injury on Vettel, therefore I hope he'll win the title.

 

[gethinceri]

"für Sie, ist die Saison vorbei"

 

[Bill Boddy]

Which translates on http://www.freetranslation.com/ to "For it is the low season".

 

[gethinceri]

That works then, no?

 

[RasputinLives]

Yep you can't argue that Seb has been top notch this year. I feel let down by the rest of the field as no one has consistantly challenged him. The reason the gap is so large is that all the others have a good couple of races then fall away.

If Vettel was tazzing away from the same second place man all the time you'd accept the best has been done to challenge him but their all too busy trippimg over themselves and trying to maintain their egos that they are 'aces' to notice that consistancy is the way to win.

Yet someone always talks up what an amzing race they've had to come through the pack. Shouldn't be in the blooming pack you fools! sort it out!

 

[Fenderman]

Personally I don't like the constant attacks on the character of teams and their personnel. History teaches us that in every human venture there will be periods of dominance by individuals, groups and organisations and that sooner or later such dominance wanes. Vettel is not storming ahead in the championship on his own. Red Bull have had the winning recipe which includes not least their top line driver, but also top notch personnel in every department and working as an exceedingly well oiled machine. Behind Red Bull's most obvious and publicly known talents, Vettel and Newey, there are probably a good number of especially talented tacticians and engineers, etc, about whom we know little or nothing. I would suggest that some of RBR's edge is down to them as well.

The fact that other teams are not in the frame to challenge them consistently enough is not a reason to disparage the hundreds of incredibly talented people working their butts off in the race teams and back home in the factories and support businesses behind them. F1 is so complex that there is no magic bullet. With Red Bull at the top of their game and top of the game it has to be an almost insurmountable hill to climb this far into the season. Therefore it should come as no surprise if their domination continues to the last round as design teams switch their attention to 2014. I doubt many of them will admit to it, for tactical reasons among others, but I sense the wind of change is already blowing behind the teams at front end of the grid.

This season's championship may be done and dusted but Red Bull and their drivers are not guaranteed top spot in 2014. This year has been the culmination of an aero' dominated era in which the laws of diminishing returns has definitely kicked in with fewer and fewer significant tweaks and gains. Short of making exact copies of the Red Bull chassis and aero' I doubt any team had a realistic hope of catching up in that area. The stabilisation - or should I say the stunting of the reg's governing engines and gearboxes has meant that other than KERS there has been no innovation on the power unit front for five years.

All that is set to change with the new power units being introduced for 2014. There are likely to be reliability issues with the turbo's and the energy recovery systems with likely divergence between the capabilities of the different makes. There will also be issues for the designers and engineers with regard to the integration of the power units, ancillaries (turbo's, ERS, batteries, etc.) and chassis since dimensions, weight and power delivery characteristics, etc, will be different to the current engines and chassis, etc.

All we can hope for is a closer competition at the front end of the grid with the new formula allowing some room for teams to find advantages in some areas that will counter-balance the advantages of their competitors in others. As far as Sebastian is concerned, we have seen that when their cars have been competitive there are four or five other drivers who will give him a race and at least three who can beat him.

Final thought ... from where I sit the changes for 2014 are at least a year late. The current formula has been in its death throes since the turn of of the decade so I'm not surprised one team and driver have dominated. Had the technical regulations not strangled the mechanical engineering side of the sport the past couple of years would have been a lot more interesting and exciting - for us technophiles at least. I'm crossing my fingers for next year in the hope that our current pessimism is misplaced.

 

[Olivier]

It's pretty much over now. 2014 may be different, I hope it is but Vettel is going to be there or thereabouts even if the RedBull doesn't perform as well as it has for the past few years.

 

[RasputinLives]

Fenderman don't get me wrong I'm not having a go at the hard working team staff I'm just merely pointing out that Vettel is on form and where the car is every single race and the others are not yet I hear about how they are the really aces, its only a Newy car and demands for massive wage packets.

Maybe if the others could do it week in week out at every session we wouldn't get this Vettel dominance over F1. We turned some of these drivers into gods so early in their careers they almost feel its their right to win. As far as I can see their is only one driver giving us top metal week in week out almost without fail and thats why he's running away with the title.

Yet he gets booed whilst those around him are lavished praise.

You are right about periods of dominance but think back to them and you'll notice there was always one driver around giving his all in a shopping trolly there to capitalise if the dominant slipped up. Right now we don't seem to have that. Just drivers who show up some days and not others.

Alonso and Kimi get all sorts of praise for their drives on Sunday but why was Kimi in 13th in the first place to have to push through? Alonso's Ferrari clearly had the pace of the others around him so why was he not nearer the front on Sunday so when he did get a lightning start he was able to give Vettel a run fir his money?

Vettel and Red Bull are dominant but there are drivers with fast enough packages to at least make it a challenge for him and to lean on him to see if he cracks every now and again. No one is doing that and thats what dissapoints me.

Consistancy and hard work is needed and I don't think the 'big name' drivers of the day are giving it.

 

[Il_leone]

a driver has always won the world drivers title when they have a win streak of 4 in a row ..which Seb could do next race