Jenson, Lewis and Tyres - A theory

[jez101]

I can't really add to the why, but in this race, Jenson definitely beat Lewis in the first few laps. Very good point about JB liking this track. It suits him for some reason.

 

[Bill Boddy]

Presumably since Hamilton had more fuel then he would be able to put in fewer fuel saving laps than Button. In fact, according to what McLaren said about they would have been quicker with more fuel in Hamilton would have had an overall advantage. So that makes Button's drive even more remarkable.

Alternatively, Melbourne is one of the tracks that suits Button most, he is not as good when it comes to circuits where the kerbs have to be attacked and the car thrown around.

This weekend Button won the race on merit. Next weekend it may well be Hamilton who does it. Enjoy their racing whichever of them it is (or even someone else).

 

[ExtremeNinja]

Absolutely agree, but maybe slightly off topic.

 

[Cookinflatsix]

Presumably since Hamilton had more fuel then he would be able to put in fewer fuel saving laps than Button. In fact, according to what McLaren said about they would have been quicker with more fuel in Hamilton would have had an overall advantage. So that makes Button's drive even more remarkable.

My post clearly suggests that the team gave both drivers instructions to save fuel at the same rate at the same time

This would not then convey any advantage to Hamilton to make up for the weight penalty incurred earlier

Anyway there are lots of places where Buttons drive has been rightly lauded

In this one thread I have out forward a theory in response to Ninjas theory. There is no need to point out that Button had a great drive which he did, that runs the risk of derailing the tread

 

[tranquility2k9]

First thing to clarify, both drivers had to save fuel, not just Button. Whitmarsh said this to Autosport.

Now onto what I have to say. Two very interesting points have been raised that I think are worth contributing to this thread.

1. Check out what Gary Anderson says:-

"I think Button concentrated more on the car with race levels of fuel in it and made sure he knew what the car was going to do in that state.

Button's race pace was faster than Hamilton's but they wore their tyres out at the same pace.

If you're going to drive slowly to look after the tyres, you're going to get beaten. So what you need is the set-up to allow you to drive quickly at the same time, which is what Button had."

This is a very interesting point. Of course it is only speculation but could this start to explain why towards the end of last year and now in the first race of this year, Hamilton has just not been on the pace of Jenson in many races. Jenson can probably naturally drive closer to the limit on race-fuel as his style is naturally kinder on the tyres and to compound this, he may have found a setup that allows him to drive on the limit without hurting the tyres.


2. Something said on Sky Sports analysis:-

"Had Hamilton, and not Button, lead into the first corner then the outcome may have been oppositely different because what really did for Lewis was the loss of initiative. Forced to pit when Jenson wanted him to, all the twists in his miserable tale could be traced back to the first turn turning point."

I don't necessarily agree that Lewis would have won if he lead but the most interesting point is that Jenson can somewhat control when Lewis pits because after all he knows if he is leading they won't let Lewis pit before him. If indeed Lewis and Jenson do battle this year for the WDC then Jenson could really start using this to his advantage. He could purposely keep on going on a stint even if his tyres drop off a little, but knowing it will probably hurt Hamilton much more because if he pits the lap before they "drop off the cliff" then that means Hamilton's will indeed drop off the cliff causing him to lose 3 seconds or more.

I never actually looked at it this way before - all yesterday I was saying McLaren let both their drivers pit too late, as even jenson lost a second a lap to Vettel the previous 2 lap before he pitted, but could it possibly be that they asked Jenson if he wanted to pit and he said no, knowing that it was very likely that Lewis could be in a much worse position. Bear in mind at that point, Lewis was only 3.5 seconds behind him and everyone else was a long way away.

If this really is the case (make note of the "IF") then I do not know how I feel about it. On the one hand it's clever tactics from Jenson but it's border-line on being foul play and abusing team rules. This is why, as I have said before, I think sometimes the team need to override that rule and make a sensible decision when it is necessary. Lewis could have even pitted first and would not have overtaken Jenson but it would have meant they both still kept a large cushion to those behind. Instead, they put Lewis out in traffic and just in-front of Vettel, who was clearly going to be a challenge from the pace he showed once he got into free air during the 1st stint.

 

[Brogan]

He could purposely keep on going on a stint even if his tyres drop off a little, but knowing it will probably hurt Hamilton much more because if he pits the lap before they "drop off the cliff" then that means Hamilton's will indeed drop off the cliff causing him to lose 3 seconds or more.

At the risk of derailing the thread, I made the same comment last year.

McLaren need to manage that as it will harm their WCC prospects at the benefit of one driver winning the WDC.

 

[ExtremeNinja]

First thing to clarify, both drivers had to save fuel, not just Button. Whitmarsh said this to Autosport.

Now onto what I have to say. Two very interesting points have been raised that I think are worth contributing to this thread.

1. Check out what Gary Anderson says:-

"I think Button concentrated more on the car with race levels of fuel in it and made sure he knew what the car was going to do in that state.

Button's race pace was faster than Hamilton's but they wore their tyres out at the same pace.

If you're going to drive slowly to look after the tyres, you're going to get beaten. So what you need is the set-up to allow you to drive quickly at the same time, which is what Button had."

This is a very interesting point. Of course it is only speculation but could this start to explain why towards the end of last year and now in the first race of this year, Hamilton has just not been on the pace of Jenson in many races. Jenson can probably naturally drive closer to the limit on race-fuel as his style is naturally kinder on the tyres and to compound this, he may have found a setup that allows him to drive on the limit without hurting the tyres.


2. Something said on Sky Sports analysis:-

"Had Hamilton, and not Button, lead into the first corner then the outcome may have been oppositely different because what really did for Lewis was the loss of initiative. Forced to pit when Jenson wanted him to, all the twists in his miserable tale could be traced back to the first turn turning point."

I don't necessarily agree that Lewis would have won if he lead but the most interesting point is that Jenson can somewhat control when Lewis pits because after all he knows if he is leading they won't let Lewis pit before him. If indeed Lewis and Jenson do battle this year for the WDC then Jenson could really start using this to his advantage. He could purposely keep on going on a stint even if his tyres drop off a little, but knowing it will probably hurt Hamilton much more because if he pits the lap before they "drop off the cliff" then that means Hamilton's will indeed drop off the cliff causing him to lose 3 seconds or more.

I never actually looked at it this way before - all yesterday I was saying McLaren let both their drivers pit too late, as even jenson lost a second a lap to Vettel the previous 2 lap before he pitted, but could it possibly be that they asked Jenson if he wanted to pit and he said no, knowing that it was very likely that Lewis could be in a much worse position. Bear in mind at that point, Lewis was only 3.5 seconds behind him and everyone else was a long way away.

If this really is the case (make note of the "IF") then I do not know how I feel about it. On the one hand it's clever tactics from Jenson but it's border-line on being foul play and abusing team rules. This is why, as I have said before, I think sometimes the team need to override that rule and make a sensible decision when it is necessary. Lewis could have even pitted first and would not have overtaken Jenson but it would have meant they both still kept a large cushion to those behind. Instead, they put Lewis out in traffic and just in-front of Vettel, who was clearly going to be a challenge from the pace he showed once he got into free air during the 1st stint.

Great response Tranq. Some really interesting points. If this does keep happening, at what point do you think we will hear from Lewis on the radio: "Guys, I'm coming in NOW. Be ready!".

I think the most interesting point is your first. Jenson looked quicker on race pace in free practice, which corroborates with that analysis. If it turns out that the McLaren does have a big advantage over the other teams (hopefully we will know this after Malaysia) then I think both drivers will be concentrating on race set-up and compromises for pole will be less of an issue. I wonder how much is down to driving style and how much is down to set-up...? I wonder about a lot of things.

 

[Jru]

In terms of McLaren's lead driver has priority - I presume if Hamilton had said 'I want to pit this lap' they would check if Button is pitting and then it is yes/no as to whether he can (and it forces Button's hand somewhat). I was somewhat surprised that he didn't try to undercut Button at the stops to be honest, given that he wasn't catching him on pace alone. This continues a theme which I believe has been mentioned before, where Button has asked for stops before but it is rarer to hear it from Hamilton (of course we are restricted in what we hear). I know that using tyre strategy instead of outright pace has almost been a stick with which critics have bashed (/discounted the achievements of) Button before but it would have been good to see Hamilton give something a go when it was clear he wasn't gaining otherwise and would always lose out to Button when using the same strategy given his priority.

However this is now a long way off topic so I will leave it there.


In terms of the original idea - it is interesting and there clearly could be something there but it is very hard to see how you could find evidence without maybe getting hold of the telemetry. If correct though you could also wonder if it would have an impact on qualifying - with Hamilton often having the advantage here. You would have to hope though that if there was a clear difference in telemetry, and it was working more for one driver, that McLaren would be able to spot that and help the other driver adapt as necessary.

I think in reality the differences must be very minute so that they are hard to clearly define or pick up on - which will hopefully mean the initiative is with neither driver throughout the season and we have some great races (and maybe by looking at where each driver does well it can provide evidence for/against the original theory)

 

[Cookinflatsix]

If you're going to drive slowly to look after the tyres, you're going to get beaten. So what you need is the set-up to allow you to drive quickly at the same time, which is what Button had."

Interesting that Anderson should say this. I suggested the same on a different thread, that Buttons car was better setup and faster, and got unceremoniously shot down

 

[RasputinLives]

I'm gonna stick in a theory here - its going to cause hell and no one is going to like it but I will stick it in.

I don't think the answer is tyre wear. I don't think the answer is fuel. I think the answer is attitude.

Lewis was beaten by Jenson fair and square in the race and was unlucky that Vettel got in front of him - it was no one's fault - it was just the rub of the green but rather than giving us a sad smile and a declaration of I'll get you next time gadget at the end of the race he sulked and looked as if someone had just shot his cat. It was the first race of the season - why so glum Lewis? 19 races to go.

So here's my theory - when things don't go the way he wants them too Lewis lets his head go down and loses concentration. I going to theorise that if he'd got into that first corner first we'd have seen him be much faster. But it took him 8-9 laps to recover his form after Jenson past him and if you look his lap times dropped off when Vettel ended up in front of him too.

I think Lewis had pictured himself getting a flyer and driving off into the distance for a fabulous win, jumping out the car to be hugged by his mum and girlfriend and saying thats one in the eyes for the critic. When Jenson went past him he saw it all vanishing and got all depressed about it.

To me Lewis needs to buckle down and stop thinking the whole worlds against him. I want to see a bit of fight in him. A bit of I lost the battle but I'll win the war spirit. Not the sulky "how come I didn't win?" lost little boy we saw on the podium.

 

[Cookinflatsix]

So here's my theory - when things don't go the way he wants them too Lewis lets his head go down and loses concentration. I going to theorise that if he'd got into that first corner first we'd have seen him be much faster. But it took him 8-9 laps to recover his form after Jenson past him and if you look his lap times dropped off when Vettel ended up in front of him too.

I think Lewis had pictured himself getting a flyer and driving off into the distance for a fabulous win, jumping out the car to be hugged by his mum and girlfriend and saying thats one in the eyes for the critic. When Jenson went past him he saw it all vanishing and got all depressed about it.

To me Lewis needs to buckle down and stop thinking the whole worlds against him. I want to see a bit of fight in him. A bit of I lost the battle but I'll win the war spirit. Not the sulky "how come I didn't win?" lost little boy we saw on the podium.

Interesting notion

I would find it plausible if we hadn't seen lots of recovery drives throughout his career. Indeed somee of his finest moments have been using his never say die attitude and carving through the field.
No one really likes to lose, and reactions to this are as varied as sportsmen are varied. Alonso for example doesn't like to lose and can sulk or worse but of course we wouldn't accuse him of anything apart from being complete

If Lewis had smiled and looked ecstatic I am sure he would get slated for having no passion and drive

There is a difference between looking glum after the race and letting a bad start affect you to the extent that your performance suffers

I can't see any justification for saying his performance dropped of after he was passed. For me the evidence suggests that his car was sluggish of the start and was clearly slower than Buttons until both were told to conserve fuel, and that coupled with the teams decision that allowed Seb to jump him is the reason he was understandably glum afterwards

 

[ExtremeNinja]

Guys. Can we bring this back on topic please? This is not the place to be discussing the personality traits of the drivers.

To recap, the point of this thread is to look deeper than the frivolously banded statement that Jenson makes his tyres last longer, which is evidently a myth, and to consider the possibility that perhaps it is not how quickly they use thier tyres but how much performance they can extract from them in varying circumstances.

Despite a few minor hiccups, the thread has been going well, but we are veering further and further off course now.

 

[RasputinLives]

Interesting notion

I would find it plausible if we hadn't seen lots of recovery drives throughout his career. Indeed somee of his finest moments have been using his never say die attitude and carving through the field.
No one really likes to lose, and reactions to this are as varied as sportsmen are varied. Alonso for example doesn't like to lose and can sulk or worse but of course we wouldn't accuse him of anything apart from being complete

If Lewis had smiled and looked ecstatic I am sure he would get slated for having no passion and drive

There is a difference between looking glum after the race and letting a bad start affect you to the extent that your performance suffers

I can't see any justification for saying his performance dropped of after he was passed. For me the evidence suggests that his car was sluggish of the start and was clearly slower than Buttons until both were told to conserve fuel, and that coupled with the teams decision that allowed Seb to jump him is the reason he was understandably glum afterwards

Guys. Can we bring this back on topic please? This is not the place to be discussing the personality traits of the drivers.

To recap, the point of this thread is to look deeper than the frivolously banded statement that Jenson makes his tyres last longer, which is evidently a myth, and to consider the possibility that perhaps it is not how quickly they use thier tyres but how much performance they can extract from them in varying circumstances.

Despite a few minor hiccups, the thread has been going well, but we are veering further and further off course now.

I did say you wouldn't like it and I was on topic Ninja. Basically I'm saying there is no mystical reason with fuel weights, tyre dedregation, aero flow or anything else - and Cook their is just as much evidence for my theory as their is for yours. I think you're all clutching at straws when the simple matter of the fact is Jenson out performed Lewis on the day. I don't see these threads and theories when its the other way round so like Lewis the best thing to do is to shrug and say I'll get you next time rather than pull every little bit of data apart and not come up with an answer anyway.

As for the attiude on the podium - yes I am reading into a lot but ask yourself this - when was the last time you saw Vettel or Button on the podium looking like that? answer never. They shrug, say well done and I'll get you next time. Then do their sulking in their trailer so the opposition don't see their weak spots. The only other driver I've seen throw a wobbley like that in the press conference is Mark Webber and thats why he's a number 2.

Jenson was faster than Lewis on Sunday because he was faster. He might not be next time but he was. The only thing Lewis should do is buckle down and work harder. Just like Jenson did when Lewis beat him in 2010

 

[ExtremeNinja]

Don't worry Raspy. There is room for a bit of deviation. Just trying to catch it before t goes too wide. Despite the thread title and the case study, the thread doesn't have to be about Lewis and Jenson. It just happened to be a good example and one we are all familiar with.

 

[Mephistopheles]

I haven't read this thread through yet but I will when I get back from the shops but I'm assuming by theory you actually mean hypothesis there is a very distinct difference between the two.

One is based on as yet undisputed facts and scientific research, and the other based on personal observations that may or may not be true.

 

[Cookinflatsix]

Yup, 1 (mine) is based on facts that I have stated clearly, another, Rasputins, is based on personal observation as he has clearly stated

Lots of threads for discussing how well Jenson did, this one is about theories, but people keep saying don't dissect this or that, say nothing and just accept that Button did well

 

[downforce]

Has anyone considered the possibility that due to rain affected practice session Hamilton may not have got a very good race set up on his car and Button might have got a good race set up on his car thanks to his extra experience?

Does anyone know if either of the drivers got in any long runs in practice?

 

[OnTheLimit]

Tyre degradation has played a part in Button being faster then LH but i feel its psychological more then anything else. Button has tons of experience and it does look as though he's using it to great effect now. He's integrated into the team extremely well and in someways made the team his own.

Hamilton does look a little shell shocked every time he finishes behind Button and it does look as if its getting to him. Maybe he didn't expect Button to be that fast or the loss of Ron Dennis as a 'mentor' has hurt him. Who knows..

Its a role reversal of when he joined Mclaren in 2007 but looking from the outside in, its a lot harmonious...at the moment anyway

 

[Mephistopheles]

I have read this thread thoroughly now, and to be honest I cannot contribute simply because;

• I have no data to look at and even if I did I probably wouldn't know what I was looking at those lap charts are like hieroglyphics to me,
• Any scientific evidence offered (Such as the tyre degradation data submitted by Brogan.) has been summarily dismissed. To turn an hypothesis into a theory every observation and all known data must be considered.
• The content and the original purpose of the thread has broken down beyond repair.

Soz Extremeninja.

Edit

That is only my opinion, I could be and probably am wrong..

 

[Cookinflatsix]

Hamilton does look a little shell shocked every time he finishes behind Button and it does look as if its getting to him. Maybe he didn't expect Button to be that fast or the loss of Ron Dennis as a 'mentor' has hurt him. Who knows..

Its a role reversal of when he joined Mclaren in 2007 but looking from the outside in, its a lot harmonious...at the moment anyway

I think Lewis having welcomed Jenson with open arms is finding out how cut throat and ruthless F1 really is,
It's all good experience and I am sure when Lewis is Jensons age he will know more how to manipulate teams and situations to his advantage

and without changing his real character.

I am not saying Lewis is like Voltaires Candide of course, but he has a chance to prove that good guys win in the long run