F1 Weather 2013: The Game (can you beat Jos?)

Can you beat Jos?


  • Total voters
    15
  • Poll closed .

jez101

Bookies drive nice cars because of people like me
Contributor
As many avid readers know, 2012 has cast some doubt over the weather prediction skills of CTA Chief Weather Boffin Jos the Boss . It was claimed by some that Mr Boss was not predicting the weather at all, that he was just reporting what he saw. Boss' boss, gethinceri admirably stuck by his man, but the critics remained vocal especially after the introduction of new regulations that closed some of the quantum superposition loopholes that Boss had been exploiting.

It seems that further research is necessary into Jos' clairvoyance and so, I introduce a little game to test this apparent phenomenon. Slyboogy and mjo are the sponsored challengers but anyone and everyone else is invited to join so that we can gather as much data as possible ;)

Here is how it works
You get two chances to guess what the weather is going to do at each race next year.
  1. your first guess must be entered on or before 31st January 2013
  2. your second guess must be entered on or before 10pm on the Thursday before the race
Your choices are A, B, C or D as follows

OptionPointsNameDescriptionA2Dryno rainB4Threateningtv shots of spectators with umbrellas up, drizzle etc but less than 5 cars do a lap or more on inters / wetsC6Variedat least 10 cars do a lap or more on dry tyres and at least 5 cars do a lap or more on inters / wetsD8Full Wetless than 10 cars do a lap or more on dry tyres and / or weather related safety car / red flag / start delay
[TR][TR] [TR][TR] [TR][TR] [TR][TR] [TR]
[TR]
Think of your second guess as the chance to stick or twist.

How do you score points?
Each race will be declared A, B, C or D and the number of points awarded for each outcome is shown in the table above.

If you guess predict correctly with both your first and second guesses , your points are doubled. For example, you say it's going to be dry in Bahrain and you stick with that just before the race, you score 4 points.

If you twist and change your mind with your second guess and get it right the second time, you get the points for the correct answer. So, if you say now that it's going to be B, 'threatening', in Britain, but change your mind to A and it is dry, you score 2 points.

If you twist and change your mind with your second guess and get it right first time, but wrong the second time, you lose two points. For example, if you say now that it's going to be C, 'varied', in Belgium, but change your mind to A but it turns out to be varied after all, you lose 2 points.

If neither guess is right you score 0.

How to enter
You need to get your initial predictions in on or before 31st January 2013. Please do so in the following format by replying to this thread. Your second guess will be via a poll that will be set up before each race.

AUS=A
MAL=A
CHI=A
TUR=A
ESP=A
MON=A
CAN=A
GBR=A
GER=A
HUN=A
BEL=A
ITA=A
SGP=A
JPN=A
KOR=A
IND=A
ABU=A
USA=A
BRA=A

Rules
Judge's decision final and not subject to appeal.
Edit: the judge can edit the rules if they choose ;)
 
Safety first FB ;)

Who is going to be the first to gamble on some weather.... There are big points for being right :)
 
Ironically, this season there were 18 dry races and only 2 varied races.
There wasn't a single wet race.

Really? It seemed like there was more water. Silverstone was varied, as was Brazil I could have sworn there was some rain in Malaysia and China, maybe just in practice.
 
I will have to go back over the season to be sure about other races, but Monaco was definitely a B) this year when it mizzled at the end and speculation of rain was in the air and pictures or brollies were shown.
 
How about giving half points if a C/D prediction is made and the race isn't C/D but one of the qualifying/practice sessions are? There might be more variation in the predictions that way.
 
jez101

I'm slightly confused as to the scoring here. Would it not be simpler to have an independent judge (Someone who hasn't entered) decide what the weather conditions are like, and then award 2 points if it was predicted by Jan 31st, or 1 point if it was predicted by the Thursday before the race? As things stand, it seems to me that the optimal strategy for all people would be to predict dry for all races.....

Alternatively, could it not be set up a la football pools, and allow people to predict the races where they think it will rain, and award points accordingly?

(Sorry, I've always found simple points scoring systems to make much more sense...) - Great idea by the way though!
 
The Artist..... You might be right but I will point you to the rules of the game at the bottom of the OP. :)

If you want to predict dry all the way, by all means do but there are big points to be won from doing something different if it works. If you start dry, then the best race score you can get is 8 points if you then twist before the race. If you gamble on a wet race now, you coule be up to 16 points. Being right once might more than pay for being wrong once or even twice ;)

Anyway, back to the Rules which say I can set the rules, which I have :D if it doesn't work, we can always try and do something different next year!
 
I reckon I'll have a stab at this.

AUS=A
MAL=D
CHI=C
TUR=A
ESP=A
MON=A
CAN=A
GBR=C
GER=C
HUN=A
BEL=A
ITA=A
SGP=A
JPN=A
KOR=A
IND=A
ABU=A
USA=A
BRA=C
 
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