The race was set up for Nibali and just to help out most of the big names were saving themselves for the Tour de France. Last Saturday the peleton allowed the breakaway to get well over 9 minutes in front; had it been a minute less then Nibali would have been in the leading bunch when the field came together. He then was left for dead in between the leading bunch and the peleton with no team mates to work with him. Dropping back was not an option, he wouldn't have gained anything on the riders who should have been his main challengers. So he finished up knackered losing over 15 seconds in the last couple of kilometers.
This seemed to catch up with him the next day, the mountain time trial (I used to love those in the TdF) which had been expected to be made for him turned into a nightmare; he did have a mechanical problem but he eas well off the pace by then.
Then on Tuesday things went from bad to worse, on the final climb he simply blew up. losing over a minute to all his rivals. Back in fourth position 4:43 minutes behind it looked as though he would need to do a Charly Gaul on Friday although the two stages between would allow him some recuperation.
Then today everything changed. On the penultimate climb Valverde cracked as Nibali attacked taking then Zakarin begins to fall behind and the group is down to four riders, Kruijswijk, Chaves, Nibali and Majka. As the approach the summit there are banks of snow and is was also quite misty. Up in the lead was Nibali'a team mate Scarponi with over five minutes advantage. This year Astana have been very good at getting a rider into breakaway group ready to help his team leader when the going gets tough. So over the top they went with Nibali clearly on a mission. Whether that was a contributing factor or not is open for discussion but Kruijswijk hit a snow bank and came off his bike which was damaged losing him time and on his own in between two groups just as Nibali had been last Saturday with an even worse result. The final 12.9 km climb started with a group of three, Nibali, Chaves and Scarponi, who had virtually stopped whilst waiting fo Nibali to catch him, about fifty seconds in front of Valverdi's group and over two minutes ahead if Kruijswijk who has been riding his heart out with very little help from anyone.
Monfort was leading and there was a group forming behind him with Nibali, Chives, Scarponi, Nieve and a few more riders. Scarponi worked like a demon, giving everything he had until he had nothing left but it had taken the group further ahead of their rivals. Now Nibali attacked leaving Chaves and Nieve chasing and the rest of the group left in their work. Chaves and Nieve gradually pull Nibali back but he attacks a second time and there is no doubting who will will win the stage.
From here on Nibali rode as he had been expected to do instead of struggling earlier in the week., finishing 51 seconds ahead of Nieve who was 2 seconds ahead of Chives, 2:14 ahead of Valverde, 4:54 ahead of Kruijswijk and Scarponi at 6:21.
The overall standings are Chaves in the Pink Jersey, Nibali at 44 seconds, Kruijswijk at 1:05 and Valverde at 1:48. The fight for the overall win would appear to be between these four but after today you cannot be sure of anything. Tomorrow is basically three big climbs and a short uphill finish and could be the most exciting day of the race. Meanwhile I shall be driving 360 miles up to Cheshire and back, thank goodness for USB recording!
