Yea, I think the first lap will be critical (not that this is a particularly earth-shaking observation in modern F1). The race may become very processional after that first lap.Canada is unique in that its described as a fast Monaco . There are not many slow twisty corners nor any fast corners so neither mechanical grip or downforce is critical. Its mainly accelerate and heavily brake , the long back straights where Ferrari have the advantage is giving them up to 0.4 seconds of a lap.
So if Vettel gets cleanly away then he can control the race but if Hamilton can get in front of him then potentially Vettel could be in for a tough afternoon following the dirty air. It will be interesting to see if LeClerc is keeping up pace with the two of them how Ferrari will react now if he demands to move over Vettel