It is 4 races in, and we now have a 3 week break to take stock of the F1 season thus far. The obvious question everyone will be asking is: what can we learn from the four races so far?
Well, the first and most obvious lesson is that Mercedes are significantly clear of everybody else. Their winner has been between 23 and 25 seconds clear of the fastest non-Mercedes¹ at every race so far, underlining their superiority; they have managed that specific gap. The advantage in fuel and tyre wear in China for Hamilton must worry the other teams as well.
Looking at the qualifying sessions, too, it seems that Red Bull is not only the best challenger in the wet, but Ricciardo's performance in Bahrain suggests they're not a busted flush in the dry either. They are clearly very close to Mercedes in the wet. So I think Red Bull have the most need to be hopeful, even if they haven't always picked up the points.
As for the rest, it is important to question how much the order has been shaken up by repeated wet qualifying. Rosberg took 40 laps to come through the field in China, the others clearly did not have that differential. In Bahrain, Force India and Williams, the beta and gamma of the Mercedes runners, came to the fore. It seems the order from last year at the top² is somewhat maintained in the wet qualifying events - Ferrari in particular had a poor Bahrain while being able to maintain position from the boost of wet qualifying in the other three.
There are shades of 2009, in particular, for Williams. They've looked far more impressive than their results suggest. In Australia, Bottas looked to have the pace but planted the wall and still finished 5th, while Massa was the unfortunate victim of Kobayashi's brake failure. Even in Bahrain, it was they who suffered most from the Safety Car moving from podium contenders to 7th and 8th. The pit error on Massa in China is emblematic of a team that needs to get some points on the board before more well-resourced teams catch-up.
As for most disappointed, that's hotly contested. McLaren will be amongst Marussia and Caterham soon if they continue to regress at the current rate. A brilliant double-podium at Albert Park has not been backed up at all, and they were absolutely awful in Shanghai, after a double DNF in Bahrain. Also disappointed will be non-point scorers Sauber. They have fallen behind Lotus, judging by Grosjean's qualifying and Maldonado's race in Shanghai, and are not only slow but unreliable too, with only 3 finishes to yet. All of them outside the points.
In the European season, we can expect some dry qualifying, and that will give a clearer picture of where they all are. But we can also expect the big dogs to make their progress and get back to where they feel they belong in dry qualifying as well. I think the story is of an opportunity for Force India and Williams wasted because of Saturday's downpours.
¹RIC in Australia
²If you exclude Lotus on the grounds they're broke
Well, the first and most obvious lesson is that Mercedes are significantly clear of everybody else. Their winner has been between 23 and 25 seconds clear of the fastest non-Mercedes¹ at every race so far, underlining their superiority; they have managed that specific gap. The advantage in fuel and tyre wear in China for Hamilton must worry the other teams as well.
Looking at the qualifying sessions, too, it seems that Red Bull is not only the best challenger in the wet, but Ricciardo's performance in Bahrain suggests they're not a busted flush in the dry either. They are clearly very close to Mercedes in the wet. So I think Red Bull have the most need to be hopeful, even if they haven't always picked up the points.
As for the rest, it is important to question how much the order has been shaken up by repeated wet qualifying. Rosberg took 40 laps to come through the field in China, the others clearly did not have that differential. In Bahrain, Force India and Williams, the beta and gamma of the Mercedes runners, came to the fore. It seems the order from last year at the top² is somewhat maintained in the wet qualifying events - Ferrari in particular had a poor Bahrain while being able to maintain position from the boost of wet qualifying in the other three.
There are shades of 2009, in particular, for Williams. They've looked far more impressive than their results suggest. In Australia, Bottas looked to have the pace but planted the wall and still finished 5th, while Massa was the unfortunate victim of Kobayashi's brake failure. Even in Bahrain, it was they who suffered most from the Safety Car moving from podium contenders to 7th and 8th. The pit error on Massa in China is emblematic of a team that needs to get some points on the board before more well-resourced teams catch-up.
As for most disappointed, that's hotly contested. McLaren will be amongst Marussia and Caterham soon if they continue to regress at the current rate. A brilliant double-podium at Albert Park has not been backed up at all, and they were absolutely awful in Shanghai, after a double DNF in Bahrain. Also disappointed will be non-point scorers Sauber. They have fallen behind Lotus, judging by Grosjean's qualifying and Maldonado's race in Shanghai, and are not only slow but unreliable too, with only 3 finishes to yet. All of them outside the points.
In the European season, we can expect some dry qualifying, and that will give a clearer picture of where they all are. But we can also expect the big dogs to make their progress and get back to where they feel they belong in dry qualifying as well. I think the story is of an opportunity for Force India and Williams wasted because of Saturday's downpours.
¹RIC in Australia
²If you exclude Lotus on the grounds they're broke