Tony Martin is rather good isn't he!
I think that Porte may surprise, but I can't see further than the chap who shoul not be riding competitively.
Interesting that Joaquim Rodriguez has already lost 14 minutes, as has Rafal Majka, who is not well known and has never ridden in the tour but finished 7th and 6th in the last two Giros. Should be interesting to see them in the mountains riding relatively unmarked.