Grand Prix 2014 Australian Grand Prix Practice, Qualifying & Race Discussion

24 years old. Apprenticeship fully served, and finally arrived in one of the two seats that you've been working towards sitting in for years; that of the quadruple reigning champions. And to start with, your home Grand Prix. All you need is for the car and engine combination to maintain its previous stratospheric standards...

At time of going to press, testing has shown little sign that Daniel Ricciardo's dream will be realised. Although, it has to be said, at time of going to press, testing has not been quite as indicative as it could have been. We don't know who is going to be fast and we won't know until the lights go out in Melbourne.

Ricciardo's team-mate, paradoxical pantomime villain and quadrakaiser Sebastian Vettel is going for his tenth race win in a row, although early suggestions are that his assault on double figures might not be as straightforward as some of the previous nine. At Jerez, getting to double figures in terms of laps was a struggle..

Ricciardo will have to make sure he performs well this season to make sure he keeps the dream seat ahead of Daniil Kvyat, presuming the young Russian puts Jean-Eric Vergne's F1 career to sleep in a dignified and respectful ceremony.

Lotus, meanwhile, have very little money, necessitating the parachuting in of Scrooge El Duck as their driver to back up 2012's other panel-beater Romain Grosjean. Their nose looks rather different to anything else out there, and is closest in design to Williams' 2004 walrus nose. Which doesn't save the fears.

McLaren and Mercedes will back up their silver cars with a British World Champion, a Mercedes engine and a plethora of team principals. Button is, of course, the Melbourne specialist. They've got some running in at Jerez; it is unknown whether either are quick, but neither are stationary.

Fernando Alonso's Ferrari hegemony is about to be challenged by Kimi Raikkonen's arrival. Raikkonen won in Australia last year, so he's got form, and this race will be the first to tell us if Ferrari team radio this year will be a story of two passionate racers abusing their engineers, or two old men moaning about their backs.

Sauber's driver line-up is the most boring thing in Formula One since the US Grand Prix of 2005.

Nico Hulkenburg gets ready for his third consecutive last year before he is signed by a big team. A poor Force India will lead to the Hulk crying himself to sleep, while team-mate Sergio Perez comforts him with stories about how McLaren isn't all it's cracked up to be.

Williams have an interesting partnership; Felipe Massa released from the suffocating stranglehold of the Alonso anaconda and partnered with an almost-ripe pretender in Valteri Bottas. They have a new old livery, a new sponsor and new hope. Williams-Mercedes still doesn't sound right.

And, hey, the 2014 Australian Grand Prix has to be the best chance for Marussia and Caterham to actually score a point; only 9 of the other teams' engines need fall apart and 6 of them are made by Renault! Race finishing expert Max Chilton could be the beneficiary. Although he could actually finish 11th if there are only 10 finishers.

So, all that's left to talk about is Melbourne itself. Despite the rugby and cricket last year, the Grand Prix itself has been quite Pommie friendly in the last several years! The yellow lines at the edge of the track bordered by green walls have been a sign of F1 starting for a number of years, and there has been good racing backed up by poor reliability. And, boy, do we expect poor reliability...
 
What happened to Hamilton on lap 25? And Alonso on lap 27?
There are a number of things that could have happened...
They ran into a Marussia or a Caterham, their tyre temps went through the roof and needed cooling. Their power unit temps went through the roof and needed cooling. They slowed so they could hear their race engineer tell them that they were setting a good pace, their tyres and power units had perfect temps and that on no account should they slow down...
 
I sent this:


"Thanks Official site. I'm skint being unemployed and can't afford to subscribe to all an sundry. Live timing without the sector times is totally useless."

"Whilst I'm at it I've been trying to change my email address for a year now. Oh well, it's been nice. I'll give it a couple more races but patience is running thin."

"A faithful old fan losing faith ..."

D---

The FIA has 2 official languages, and you don't know if this will be reviewed in Paris. So you should send another letter in French too. Ideally with a bit of French passion if you know what I mean.
 
I've collated all the long run times to give a better idea of how teams were doing. I've included all times that appeared to be part of a long run and deleted anomalous times to best of my judgement. I've included info on the total number of laps looked at each driver and how many of these were included in the data to give a better idea of how reliable each drivers data is. Here they are:

f1times.png

f1times2.png
 
I'm guessing there must be more to the story for Kimi as that average time is much slower than Fernando's. Hopefully the same goes for Vettel and Ricciardo. Mercedes look ahead on 1 lap times and long runs.

I'm really disappointed to see Marussia so far behind there on long run pace and with Lotus and Caterham not even getting out, it looks like Q1 is a foregone conclusion.
 
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Well that does add another interesting stat. About a second between them in each case. So it looks like the soft is around a second quicker if that is the case. Although it could be less considering you'd expect both Button and Vettel to lap quicker than their teams (in theory).
 
I'm going to put this out there so you can all call me on it later but I reckon if Vettel puts that Red Bull on the podium on Sunday we'll prob see title number 5 for him.

That Red Bull is only going to get better and we know he kicks into overdrive in the second half of the season. His rivals need to score as many points over him now whilst they have the chance and if he can get the Red Bull to the podium when its this under developed then they won't do it.
 
I still have Mercedes down as favourites. The changes they've made in the last 2 years have set them up to potentially dominate. Red Bull may have the best aero package, but it is still behind the Merc (presumably), so where are they going to find that extra time. And that's even without mentioning reliability. I personally think there is a good chance Vettel will get a podium this weekend, but I don't think that indicates a 5th World title. He's probably rightly 2nd favourite.
 
Red Bull's having a disadvantage gives Seb' an opportunity to put the "it's all the car" stuff to bed. It will be interesting to see how it pans out and I expect a lot more surprises this season along with the commensurate fisticuffs on the 'net.:D
 
According to some of the drivers Red Bull seems to have the dominant aero package but they haven't been able to show its full potential yet due the unreliability.

Either Caterham and Marussia are still sandbagging and will show us their true pace tomorrow or they should just **** off. It makes no sense running a car 3 secs. off the pace + Marussia's Chilton factor. They have had 5 years now and no one really needs them as they don't offer scenes for the TV.

I have always hoped they catch up with the midfield pack but it just isn't happening.
 
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I still don't expect either red bull to finish the race or at least be significantly off the full race pace. They may have found the speed, but they still missed out on the decent mileage in testing. McLaren, Mercedes and Williams all suffered mechanicals towards the back end of testing. Take caterham for example, in Bahrain they looked solid if not quick. Today they couldn't get out of the pits. Sure as teams caterham and red bull are like chalk and cheese but unless red bull are the flukiest team in the world they'll have some gremlins come Sunday.

Although perhaps Im just trying to stay positive.
 
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