Traditonally the title decider but now earlier on the calendar, the F1 circus rolls into Japan with the championship finely poised with Vettel closing in on Alonso despite a setback in Monza. At the moment it's a two horse race with the German and the Spaniard but don't count out Raikkonen and Hamilton just yet, The Finn's incredible consistency has meant he's third in the championship and will be there or thereabouts at the end, particularly if the updates that Lotus are bringing to Japan benefit. Hamilton is in one of the fastest cars on the grid (if not the quickest) and was robbed off a probably win (certainly at least second) in Singapore with gearbox problems and the loss of 25 points has threatened to derail his championship. With 6 races to go he's 50 points behind Alonso. The only benefit for Hamilton, and indeed Raikkonen and Vettel is that Alonso isn't in the fastest car. The only reason that Alonso has been on the podium in recent races is from DNF's from other drivers and also the sheer skill of the Spaniard to drag an average car to places it shouldn't be and that is why he's top of the championship with a reasonable margain, but it's certainly not comfortable and I expect the title to go to the final race in Brazil.
In Singapore, McLaren and Red Bull were the class of the field and I think this will continue in Japan where both teams have been traditionally strong in recent years with Red Bull winning in 2009 and 2010 and McLaren in 2011 with Hamilton taking a podium in 2009. The worrying thing for Ferrari is the hit and miss pace of Sauber and Williams as Perez took 3 points off Alonso in Monza and Maldonado could have taken the final podium place until he had to retire in what was his best drive since Spain. What's interesting also is that with the 4 drivers going for the championship, they are all from different teams and how the 'other' drivers do (Webber, Massa, Button, Grosjean) do will have a significant impact on the championship. Romain Grosjean has already managed that when he took out Hamilton and Alonso at the first corner in Belgium, this enabled Vettel to close 18 points on Alonso, something that is unlikely to happen again this season (such a big swing anyway, unless there are more DNF's).
Races in Suzuka have generally been sunny and dry, but in 2004 and 2010 qualifying was held on Sunday morning due to conditions the day before so rain isn't an impossibility although the last wet race at Suzuka was in 1995 with the last wet race of any kind in Japan being in 2007 with the downpours at Fuji which provided a classic race in the torrential rain. Ferrari will be praying for rain as generally this season it's where they've been able to maximise their car as 2 of Alonso's 3 wins have come in rain affected weekends in Malaysia and Germany. Considering the amount of wet practices/qualifying we've had this season, there hasn't been that many wet races with only Malaysia being wet (not including Monaco as it was still too dry for intermediates at the end of the race).
The Japan/Korea double header will have a big say in the title fight if nothing else than to decide if it's going to be a 2 horse fight or a 3/4 way fight. Certainly Hamilton can't afford any more DNF's and Raikkonen needs to win at some point, although a DNF or a low points score for Alonso would blow the championship wide open and this would play into the hands of Vettel who in my opinion is the favourite for the title at the moment unless Ferrari can find more pace in that Ferrari as Vettel is roughly only one wins worth of points from Alonso and he has the car and the speed to compete for the win at all remaining races. But then I think him and Hamilton are the only two capable of that, the big difference is is that Hamilton is a further 30 points down the road, it's superbly poised, a lot better than this time 12 months ago when the Championship was all but over with Vettel leading by over 100 points
Suzuka circuit write up - http://cliptheapex.com/pages/suzuka-international-racing-course/
In Singapore, McLaren and Red Bull were the class of the field and I think this will continue in Japan where both teams have been traditionally strong in recent years with Red Bull winning in 2009 and 2010 and McLaren in 2011 with Hamilton taking a podium in 2009. The worrying thing for Ferrari is the hit and miss pace of Sauber and Williams as Perez took 3 points off Alonso in Monza and Maldonado could have taken the final podium place until he had to retire in what was his best drive since Spain. What's interesting also is that with the 4 drivers going for the championship, they are all from different teams and how the 'other' drivers do (Webber, Massa, Button, Grosjean) do will have a significant impact on the championship. Romain Grosjean has already managed that when he took out Hamilton and Alonso at the first corner in Belgium, this enabled Vettel to close 18 points on Alonso, something that is unlikely to happen again this season (such a big swing anyway, unless there are more DNF's).
Races in Suzuka have generally been sunny and dry, but in 2004 and 2010 qualifying was held on Sunday morning due to conditions the day before so rain isn't an impossibility although the last wet race at Suzuka was in 1995 with the last wet race of any kind in Japan being in 2007 with the downpours at Fuji which provided a classic race in the torrential rain. Ferrari will be praying for rain as generally this season it's where they've been able to maximise their car as 2 of Alonso's 3 wins have come in rain affected weekends in Malaysia and Germany. Considering the amount of wet practices/qualifying we've had this season, there hasn't been that many wet races with only Malaysia being wet (not including Monaco as it was still too dry for intermediates at the end of the race).
The Japan/Korea double header will have a big say in the title fight if nothing else than to decide if it's going to be a 2 horse fight or a 3/4 way fight. Certainly Hamilton can't afford any more DNF's and Raikkonen needs to win at some point, although a DNF or a low points score for Alonso would blow the championship wide open and this would play into the hands of Vettel who in my opinion is the favourite for the title at the moment unless Ferrari can find more pace in that Ferrari as Vettel is roughly only one wins worth of points from Alonso and he has the car and the speed to compete for the win at all remaining races. But then I think him and Hamilton are the only two capable of that, the big difference is is that Hamilton is a further 30 points down the road, it's superbly poised, a lot better than this time 12 months ago when the Championship was all but over with Vettel leading by over 100 points
Suzuka circuit write up - http://cliptheapex.com/pages/suzuka-international-racing-course/
I don't wanna know who will win until I watch the race..
