I've voted for the bottom option.
McLaren may be in trouble at the moment, and if the comments attributed to Whitmarsh today are accurate then they do have some problems to solve.
But McLaren have the resources to identify and solve problems more readily than any other team. They also, crucially, have another test at Jerez next week to gather more data.
Much will change between now and Melbourne. I can't help wondering, too, if Brawn are chasing headline times for sponsorship purposes. I wouldn't blame them for it; the team only has a budget to the end of the year and they wouldn't be the first to use such a tactic.