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Hey everyone, we're the Grand Prix (pronounced Pricks) - three guys (Mullen, Johnny, and Chase) who bring our data science expertise to Formula 1 analysis. While we're not racing experts or mechanics, we're passionate fans who want to understand what truly makes one driver better than another. Beyond just wins and points, we wanted to know: how much of a driver's success comes from the car's performance versus their own skill? This led us to develop Driver Value Above Replacement (DVAR), a metric that helps answer this question
DVAR compares each driver's performance to a 20th percentile baseline across key 2024 metrics: qualifying and race positions, overtaking ability, consistency, and teammate comparison, while accounting for car and track effects. With this metric, we can see which drivers provided their teams with the most value relative to their teammate and the rest of the field. We hope to use this information to share with others and create content around it. Attached to this post is a chart of 2024 season DVAR without the drivers’ names. Can you guess who is who? In a follow up post, we will share the names of the drivers to see how accurate you were!
As we (well, really Johnny) tested out DVAR for errors and other fancy statistical things, we felt we landed on something that brought value to us, but we also uncovered that we could do even more with DVAR. We realized that we could take DVAR and create a prediction model for each race, and for the season. It has told us who are the sneaky fast teams in the midfield and which of the race favorites has the edge. This prediction model, affectionately named “The Model” will help us, and hopefully others, gain insight into how the race may unfold. And, if this is your type of thing, help place more educated wagers on race outcomes.
So what do we need from all of you? First, we want feedback on what you think of DVAR and how useful it may be to understand an individual driver’s value relative to everyone else. Second, we want to know what are some components you think would be useful to include in the DVAR calculation. Third, looking at the 2024 DVAR list that is attached, does something seem way off to you? Let us know and we can dig into why that result turned out that way. For instance, a running hypothesis we have for some of the results is due to how many DNFs one driver has versus another. Lastly, we hope to use this information to bring value to the races we are watching and to create entertaining and somewhat informative insight to the sport we enjoy. Using DVAR and The Model to create content and to provide a useful tool to racing fans is our overall goal. So please, let us know what you think and what you would like to see moving forward. Is there a particular season or regulation set that you would like to see the DVARs on? Let us know, maybe we can spit that out for you.
Thanks,
The Grand Prix
DVAR compares each driver's performance to a 20th percentile baseline across key 2024 metrics: qualifying and race positions, overtaking ability, consistency, and teammate comparison, while accounting for car and track effects. With this metric, we can see which drivers provided their teams with the most value relative to their teammate and the rest of the field. We hope to use this information to share with others and create content around it. Attached to this post is a chart of 2024 season DVAR without the drivers’ names. Can you guess who is who? In a follow up post, we will share the names of the drivers to see how accurate you were!
As we (well, really Johnny) tested out DVAR for errors and other fancy statistical things, we felt we landed on something that brought value to us, but we also uncovered that we could do even more with DVAR. We realized that we could take DVAR and create a prediction model for each race, and for the season. It has told us who are the sneaky fast teams in the midfield and which of the race favorites has the edge. This prediction model, affectionately named “The Model” will help us, and hopefully others, gain insight into how the race may unfold. And, if this is your type of thing, help place more educated wagers on race outcomes.
So what do we need from all of you? First, we want feedback on what you think of DVAR and how useful it may be to understand an individual driver’s value relative to everyone else. Second, we want to know what are some components you think would be useful to include in the DVAR calculation. Third, looking at the 2024 DVAR list that is attached, does something seem way off to you? Let us know and we can dig into why that result turned out that way. For instance, a running hypothesis we have for some of the results is due to how many DNFs one driver has versus another. Lastly, we hope to use this information to bring value to the races we are watching and to create entertaining and somewhat informative insight to the sport we enjoy. Using DVAR and The Model to create content and to provide a useful tool to racing fans is our overall goal. So please, let us know what you think and what you would like to see moving forward. Is there a particular season or regulation set that you would like to see the DVARs on? Let us know, maybe we can spit that out for you.
Thanks,
The Grand Prix
